Author
@jailhousetom jailhousetom
grade Cx.com/jailhousetom ↗
Japanese active trader running a SoftBank-NAV/ARM-semis thesis with transparent live trades
Real-time discretionary trading of Japanese and US semis, So
trader score
+0.19
hit rate
50%
mean α
+0.20%
signals 14d
27
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 16 scored bets: 50% hit rate, +0.20% mean alpha, trader score +0.19. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +5.2% since posting (mean over 4 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | · | @jailhousetom | · | Says Nikkei futures are positioned for a sizable move either way, with direction unclear. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | TSLA | @jailhousetom | -0.35 | Questions the practicality of Tesla's wheeled vehicle versus a drone. | +4.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | AAPL | @jailhousetom | +0.45 | Discloses buying Apple while Buffett was selling it. | +1.4% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @jailhousetom | · | Plans a tentative stock purchase on Friday. — States a forward plan to make a small initial stock purchase. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @jailhousetom | · | Reports prioritizing profit-taking before seeking the next setup. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @jailhousetom | · | Discloses a futures short and readiness to take profit. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | · | @jailhousetom | · | Suggests SoftBank may fill a chart gap, but no listing is specified | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | · | @jailhousetom | · | Says the author bought an unspecified asset yesterday | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | MU | @jailhousetom | -0.30 | Says memory stocks may be finished for now but warns against shorting | -7.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | SNDK | @jailhousetom | -0.30 | Says memory stocks may be finished for now but warns against shorting | -16.5% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | 9984.T | @jailhousetom | +0.70 | Calls SoftBank Group plainly too cheap and praises its fundraising ability | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | 9984.T | @jailhousetom | -0.35 | Expects SoftBank to fall again tomorrow while discussing hedging with shorts | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | 9984.T | @jailhousetom | +0.65 | Opened a new SoftBank long after stopping out Friday's purchase — Explicitly reports a fresh purchase after cutting the prior position | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-12 | · | @jailhousetom | · | Bought SoftBank cheaper and is pleased with the entry. — Reports buying SoftBank at a lower price, but no explicit ticker or listing is given. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-12 | · | @jailhousetom | · | Says Advantest was sold for profit and futures exposure is currently flat. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.