Author

@jailhousetom jailhousetom

Japanese active trader running a SoftBank-NAV/ARM-semis thesis with transparent live trades

Real-time discretionary trading of Japanese and US semis, So

trader score
+2.42
hit rate
80%
mean α
+2.09%
signals 14d
81

Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.

Their picks, scored

Across their last 20 scored bets: 80% hit rate, +2.09% mean alpha, trader score +2.42. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -0.9% since posting (mean over 9 mentions with price data).

Recent signals15receipts included
date (PT)tickerauthorsentwhat they saidsince thenreceipt
2026-07-02·@jailhousetom·Says Japanese stocks may face upside pressure next week from July ETF distribution selling.·
2026-07-02·@jailhousetom·Constructive on SoftBank Group over time but no explicit ticker is provided.·
2026-07-01·@jailhousetom·Mentions futures short setup if rejected after breaking 70000, but does not name instrument.·
2026-07-01·@jailhousetom·Reports taking a short-term futures rebound trade.·
2026-07-01·@jailhousetom·Keep taking small USD/JPY shorts. — Says he will keep taking small, steady shorts in dollar-yen.·
2026-07-01·@jailhousetom·Says SoftBank focus should be accumulation at cheap levels, not short-term price timing.·
2026-07-01·@jailhousetom·Says yen weakness is fundamental and fine, though he reduced USD/JPY position.·
2026-06-30·@jailhousetom·Enter Nikkei futures long if 70600-70800 bounce confirms — Author wants to enter long again if Nikkei futures rebound confirms near 70600-70800.·
2026-06-30·@jailhousetom·Says Tsugami is making further new highs, but no ticker is provided.·
2026-06-30·@jailhousetom·Says satisfied with futures trading, a past-tense recap with no ticker.·
2026-06-30·@jailhousetom·Recaps taking 1000 points from Nikkei futures long.·
2026-06-30·@jailhousetom·Says Nikkei futures long entry here is textbook and starts from here.·
2026-06-30·@jailhousetom·Buy Nikkei futures long after 70200 recovery or probe near 69900 — Explicit Nikkei futures long plan with 69,700, 70,200 and 69,900 levels.·
2026-06-30·@jailhousetom·Says SoftBank upside is heavy but downside limited and author added gradually today, no ticker given.·
2026-06-29·@jailhousetom·Says futures may break above 70600.·

Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.