Author
@jailhousetom jailhousetom
grade Cx.com/jailhousetom ↗
Japanese active trader running a SoftBank-NAV/ARM-semis thesis with transparent live trades
Real-time discretionary trading of Japanese and US semis, So
trader score
-0.94
hit rate
40%
mean α
-1.25%
signals 14d
82
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 10 scored bets: 40% hit rate, -1.25% mean alpha, trader score -0.94. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -3.5% since posting (mean over 10 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | SPX | @jailhousetom | -0.40 | Warns a wait-and-see inflation stance could raise rate concerns and increase equity weakness and volatility. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @jailhousetom | · | Kioxia chart analysis identifies support, range and resistance levels for next week. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | ARM | @jailhousetom | +0.45 | Author reacts emotionally to ARM's price while affirming a long-term SoftBank-aligned stance. | -6.3% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | SNPS | @jailhousetom | +0.50 | Briefly expresses approval of Synopsys. | -4.8% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | NVDA | @jailhousetom | +0.55 | Briefly expresses approval of Nvidia. | -4.6% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | BTC | @jailhousetom | +0.15 | Reports successful execution of a quantum-resistant Bitcoin transaction. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | · | @jailhousetom | · | Reports taking profit on a Nikkei futures short entered at 66,400 near 66,000. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | · | @jailhousetom | · | Notes unspecified futures returned near VWAP and advocates caution. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | SNPS | @jailhousetom | +0.60 | States that Synopsys also reported good earnings. | +8.0% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | NVDA | @jailhousetom | +0.65 | Reports Nvidia revenue doubled, beat forecasts and briefly lifted shares 5%. | +3.8% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | HYPE | @jailhousetom | +0.30 | Says the Hyperliquid move had been fairly predictable after the fact. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | · | @jailhousetom | · | Recaps profitable Nikkei futures trading and closing a short before the night session. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | NVDA | @jailhousetom | +0.00 | Says clustered catalysts make active positioning difficult, though participants have already prepared for them. | +2.1% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | · | @jailhousetom | · | Retrospectively says profits from Nikkei futures and USD/JPY exceeded gains from semiconductor stocks. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-24 | BTC | @jailhousetom | +0.50 | Will buy Bitcoin but avoid Bitcoin-treasury companies and DAT vehicles. — Explicitly states a forward preference to buy Bitcoin directly while avoiding treasury proxies. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.