Author
@johnarnold johnarnold
grade Ax.com/johnarnold ↗
Ex-gas-trader turned macro/policy thinker dissecting energy, AI labor, and fiscal fragility
Posts long-form, original macro and policy frameworks with d
trader score
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hit rate
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mean α
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signals 14d
30
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Not yet in the scored-bets universe (fewer than 20 scoreable calls). Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +1.0% since posting (mean over 7 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 | · | @johnarnold | · | Describes a GLP-1 trial intended to measure health, fiscal and economic effects | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | · | @johnarnold | · | Announces funding for a rigorous study of GLP-1 effects on substance use | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | · | @johnarnold | · | Defends online election markets as a source of price transparency | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | · | @johnarnold | · | Argues high rates suppress housing supply and may fuel future inflation | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | · | @johnarnold | · | Says near-term policy effectiveness is limited without fiscal tightening | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | · | @johnarnold | · | Argues Fed rate increases may fail to lower inflation and could be counterproductive | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-12 | AMZN | @johnarnold | -0.15 | Calls Expedia's alleged seller restrictions blatantly anticompetitive and compares them with Amazon litigation. | -4.4% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-12 | EXPE | @johnarnold | -0.45 | Calls Expedia's alleged seller restrictions blatantly anticompetitive and compares them with Amazon litigation. | +7.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-12 | PSX | @johnarnold | +0.60 | Uses post-spinoff returns to argue unwanted divisions can become superior long-term investments. | +0.6% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-12 | MPC | @johnarnold | +0.65 | Uses post-spinoff returns to argue unwanted divisions can become superior long-term investments. | -0.3% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-12 | MRO | @johnarnold | -0.10 | Uses post-spinoff returns to argue unwanted divisions can become superior long-term investments. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-12 | COP | @johnarnold | +0.05 | Uses post-spinoff returns to argue unwanted divisions can become superior long-term investments. | +9.6% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-11 | · | @johnarnold | · | Notes that UK auto brands are largely foreign-owned, implying domestic-sector weakness. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-11 | · | @johnarnold | · | Explains structural factors behind competitive industrial ecosystems. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-11 | · | @johnarnold | · | States the UK auto market applies 10% tariffs and no quotas to US and Chinese imports. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.