Author
@junkbondinvest junkbondinvest
grade Ax.com/junkbondinvest ↗
Forensic private-credit skeptic dissecting BDC plumbing, hidden leverage, and mark-to-myth
Original sector analysis and running commentary on private c
trader score
+0.23
hit rate
40%
mean α
+0.22%
signals 14d
25
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 20 scored bets: 40% hit rate, +0.22% mean alpha, trader score +0.23. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +2.9% since posting (mean over 2 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | · | @junkbondinvest | · | Quantifies PIMCO's shadow-default definition and reports 19% of BDC issuers in default states. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | · | @junkbondinvest | · | Uses a $300M athlete-backed bond to illustrate the changing composition of insurer balance sheets. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | · | @junkbondinvest | · | Projects hyperscaler capex above $1T yearly and argues debt funding is pushing data-center bond yields to 7.2-7.5%. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | · | @junkbondinvest | · | Criticizes weak lender protections in 2021-vintage software debt, citing Proofpoint's $5B refinancing. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-20 | · | @junkbondinvest | · | Quantifies strong private-credit fundraising despite concurrent retail-redemption concerns. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-20 | · | @junkbondinvest | · | Argues higher debt costs and compressed multiples now require real EBITDA growth in private equity. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-20 | · | @junkbondinvest | · | Sarcastically rejects reassuring private-credit performance and loss statistics. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-19 | · | @junkbondinvest | · | Highlights conflicts in Jefferies' private-credit secondaries fund structure. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-19 | · | @junkbondinvest | · | Warns the 2028 maturity wall is unusually risky due to weak credit quality and doubled costs. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-19 | · | @junkbondinvest | · | Shows BDC non-accruals rising from 3.95% by security to 5.95% by borrower exposure. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-19 | NBIS | @junkbondinvest | -0.30 | Nebius announced a $4.5B convertible senior-note offering. | -6.6% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-18 | · | @junkbondinvest | · | Reports affiliated insurer loans, a DOJ subpoena and a $6.5B asset transaction | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-18 | · | @junkbondinvest | · | Summarizes Apollo's bearish First Brands thesis based on accounting and governance red flags | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-17 | · | @junkbondinvest | · | Argues CLO demand and scarce loan supply have compressed spreads beyond what credit risk warrants. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-17 | · | @junkbondinvest | · | Compares 173-basis-point BB corporate OAS with 782-basis-point BB CLO discount margin. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.