Author
@junkbondinvest junkbondinvest
grade Ax.com/junkbondinvest ↗
Forensic private-credit skeptic dissecting BDC plumbing, hidden leverage, and mark-to-myth
Original sector analysis and running commentary on private c
trader score
+0.67
hit rate
55%
mean α
+0.98%
signals 14d
36
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 11 scored bets: 55% hit rate, +0.98% mean alpha, trader score +0.67. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +35.2% since posting (mean over 4 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | · | @junkbondinvest | · | Characterizes unnamed credit spreads as wide but not distressed. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | · | @junkbondinvest | · | Presents AI data-center high-yield bonds ranked by spread. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | · | @junkbondinvest | · | Skeptically notes a proposed 651MW data center lacks a tenant despite Silver Lake backing. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | · | @junkbondinvest | · | Treats a movie studio's AI-data-center pivot as an unusual peak-cycle indicator. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | · | @junkbondinvest | · | Compares maturity reduction for leveraged-loan borrowers with much slower progress in software. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | · | @junkbondinvest | · | Challenges a private-credit return chart because it is gross of fees and partly backtested. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | · | @junkbondinvest | · | Identifies minority sales in private-equity management companies as a mid-market opportunity. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @junkbondinvest | · | Says management's turnaround plan mirrors the author's downside case. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | FUN | @junkbondinvest | -0.75 | Frames Six Flags as a distressed capital-structure situation after an accident and operating fragility. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | CRWV | @junkbondinvest | -0.25 | Frames Six Flags as a distressed capital-structure situation after an accident and operating fragility. | -22.2% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @junkbondinvest | · | Explains high-yield yields doubled to about 8% while spreads remain near 300 basis points. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @junkbondinvest | · | Highlights weak leveraged-loan interest coverage and a shift from expected cuts to a hike. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | CCC | @junkbondinvest | +0.50 | Reports GTCR and Elliott buying CCC and uses the valuation to assess software-lending risk. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @junkbondinvest | · | Reports 2027 AI-capex forecasts rising despite a 125-basis-point increase in the 10-year yield. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @junkbondinvest | · | Provides yields for unnamed securities in a linked chart. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.