@KeithMcCullough KeithMcCullough
Hedgeye founder running a falsifiable Quad-regime macro engine into tickered cross-asset long/short calls
Translates a proprietary growth/inflation rate-of-change now
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.
Across their last 20 scored bets: 40% hit rate, +0.51% mean alpha, trader score +0.52. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -3.0% since posting (mean over 65 mentions with price data).
Keith McCullough is positioned around a disinflation and falling-yields framework: short oil, Bitcoin/crypto, MSTR-linked beta, Indonesia, Brazil, and consumer staples while staying long DRAM and the US dollar. His distinctive read is that cycle highs in bond yields and inflation are already in, making long USD versus short Bitcoin and commodity shorts the core expression. No clear flip appears inside the window; disclosures and directional calls mostly reinforce the same short-risk/long-USD playbook while DRAM remains the main long exposure.
Positioning is consistent rather than flipping: he repeatedly reinforces short Bitcoin/crypto, oil, Indonesia, and Brazil while holding long USD and long DRAM. The clearest adds in the signal set are fresh or reiterated directional shorts in EWZ, BTC, KR, ACI, and WMT, while DRAM is explicitly held but not added at current levels. Concentration risk sits in BTC within the short-disinflation theme and DRAM within the long book.
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | IAK | @KeithMcCullough | +0.55 | Mentions ETF positions in XLV, IAK and XLU ramping today. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | XLV | @KeithMcCullough | +0.55 | Mentions ETF positions in XLV, IAK and XLU ramping today. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | XLU | @KeithMcCullough | +0.45 | Mentions ETF positions in XLV, IAK and XLU ramping today. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @KeithMcCullough | · | Criticizes Fed policy model and past inflation/rate misses. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | URA | @KeithMcCullough | -0.55 | Uranium ETF may close at a new 3-month low; commodities described negatively. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @KeithMcCullough | · | Recaps re-loading shorts earlier in the morning. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | IAK | @KeithMcCullough | +0.55 | Healthcare and insurance asset allocations are ripping. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | XLV | @KeithMcCullough | +0.55 | Healthcare and insurance asset allocations are ripping. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @KeithMcCullough | · | Macro framework favoring market signals over intervention and narratives. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @KeithMcCullough | · | Questions Fed forecasts for growth and inflation. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | MRVL | @KeithMcCullough | -0.45 | Says they removed MRVL from a buy/sell signal product list. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | QQQ | @KeithMcCullough | -0.55 | QQQ faces lower highs, stalled at resistance, and signals are changing. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | META | @KeithMcCullough | -0.45 | Says chasing META yesterday was not bright. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @KeithMcCullough | · | Mentions ETF position changes today, but no tickers listed. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @KeithMcCullough | · | Promotes chart showing prior exit and shorting of crashing markets. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.