@KobeissiLetter KobeissiLetter
Data-dense macro commentator pushing an 'own assets' AI-and-inflation regime thesis
Publishes high-frequency, quantified macro and market-struct
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.
Across their last 20 scored bets: 60% hit rate, +0.37% mean alpha, trader score +0.62. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +4.9% since posting (mean over 69 mentions with price data).
KobeissiLetter is primarily calling a macro tape: US-Iran headlines drove oil lower and equities higher early, before late-week Hormuz closure threats reintroduced geopolitical risk. The distinctive read is that AI demand is reshaping inflation, issuance, capex, and market concentration, with semiconductors and SpaceX used as the visible speculative edges. There are no explicit trade calls or position disclosures in this payload; conviction is expressed through repeated macro/news framing rather than stated buys or sells.
The author’s macro read flipped from early-week de-escalation and oil relief to late-week renewed Hormuz closure risk, supported by repeated peace-deal headlines followed by Iran closure reports on June 20. There are no explicit adds, trims, exits, or directional trade calls in the input. Concentration is highest in US-Iran/oil headlines and SpaceX IPO coverage, with SPCX carrying pump-risk given repeated valuation and momentum posts.
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | · | @KobeissiLetter | · | Leveraged ETF rebalancing at record levels may amplify market volatility. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | DIA | @KobeissiLetter | -0.33 | Dow surges nearly 600 points and closes at record high. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @KobeissiLetter | · | Global stock market cap reaches record $166T after large YoY gains. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @KobeissiLetter | · | SPR fell 5.5M barrels to lowest since May 1983. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @KobeissiLetter | · | Retail dip-buying in equities is at historic extremes. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @KobeissiLetter | · | Historical July seasonality suggests continued bullish momentum for US stocks. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @KobeissiLetter | · | US hiring plans remain depressed with June additions down 44% from May. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | MU | @KobeissiLetter | -0.09 | Trump says Micron stock rose after $250M contribution to Trump Accounts. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @KobeissiLetter | · | US economy added 57k jobs, below 114k expectations; unemployment fell to 4.2%. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @KobeissiLetter | · | Trump says Freedom Fuel Network is lowering gas prices at 25 northeast US stations on July 3. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @KobeissiLetter | · | Retail Magnificent 7 volume fell to multi-year lows while semiconductor interest rises. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @KobeissiLetter | · | Crypto card deposits crossed $10B with strong YTD and YoY growth amid stablecoin adoption. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @KobeissiLetter | · | US job openings rebounded to 7.6M, highest since May 2024. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @KobeissiLetter | · | US crude and petroleum production hit record levels in April with strong YoY growth. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @KobeissiLetter | · | Bloomberg says Strait of Hormuz crude shipping surged to 10M bpd while still below pre-war levels. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.