Author
@KontraInvest KontraInvest
grade Ax.com/KontraInvest ↗
Data-driven GLP-1 obesity-pharma analyst tracking the Novo-vs-Lilly script race
Produces original fundamental analysis of the obesity/GLP-1
trader score
+1.21
hit rate
55%
mean α
+0.22%
signals 14d
44
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 20 scored bets: 55% hit rate, +0.22% mean alpha, trader score +1.21. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +0.0% since posting (mean over 38 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | NVO | @KontraInvest | -0.30 | Argues semaglutide patent expiry will pressure pricing across the obesity-drug market, not only Novo. | +0.6% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | LLY | @KontraInvest | -0.30 | Says semaglutide patent expiry is also negative for Lilly and other competitors. | +1.3% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @KontraInvest | · | Explains regulatory and poison-pill constraints on quietly building a pharmaceutical acquisition stake. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | NVO | @KontraInvest | +0.35 | Argues a lower-dose CagriSema maintenance tier could improve patient persistence. | -0.4% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | NVO | @KontraInvest | +0.30 | Presents a cautious positive case that pill growth can offset injectable pricing pressure and support valuation. | -0.4% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @KontraInvest | · | Calls an unidentified pipeline issue negative but relevant mainly in 2027. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | NVO | @KontraInvest | -0.20 | Flags Q3 pricing risk for Novo while clarifying the timing of Medicare changes. | +2.4% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-11 | NVO | @KontraInvest | +0.50 | Argues Novo sentiment is turning positively based on two weeks of GLP-1 prescription data. | +1.1% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-11 | LLY | @KontraInvest | +0.00 | Argues Novo sentiment is turning positively based on two weeks of GLP-1 prescription data. | +8.0% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-11 | NVO | @KontraInvest | +0.15 | Analyzes branding and FDA naming constraints for Novo's CagriSema product. | +1.1% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-11 | NVO | @KontraInvest | -0.15 | Compares prescription gains and says the competing product is currently winning at the margin. | +1.1% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-10 | NVO | @KontraInvest | +0.65 | Claims Wegovy pill growth exceeds the entirety of Lilly's competing Foundayo product. | +1.1% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-10 | LLY | @KontraInvest | -0.25 | Claims Wegovy pill growth exceeds the entirety of Lilly's competing Foundayo product. | +8.0% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-10 | NVO | @KontraInvest | +0.25 | Wegovy HD prescriptions rose 0.5% to 23,751 with an estimated $0.5B annual revenue run rate. | +1.1% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-10 | NVO | @KontraInvest | +0.30 | Prescription data show Wegovy pill volume at 3.10 times Foundayo's level. | +1.1% | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.