Author

@KontraInvest KontraInvest

Data-driven GLP-1 obesity-pharma analyst tracking the Novo-vs-Lilly script race

Produces original fundamental analysis of the obesity/GLP-1

trader score
+0.93
hit rate
60%
mean α
+2.41%
signals 14d
20

Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.

Their picks, scored

Across their last 20 scored bets: 60% hit rate, +2.41% mean alpha, trader score +0.93. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -2.5% since posting (mean over 16 mentions with price data).

Recent signals15receipts included
date (PT)tickerauthorsentwhat they saidsince thenreceipt
2026-08-28LLY@KontraInvest+0.50FDA approved Mounjaro to reduce cardiovascular risk in adults with type 2 diabetes.
2026-08-28TEVA@KontraInvest-0.10Reports TEVA will acquire a neuroscience product.
2026-08-25NKE@KontraInvest-0.35Says lost relevance explains Nike's decline and recovery is possible but uncertain.+0.3%
2026-08-24LLY@KontraInvest-0.25Reports Wegovy prescription growth and a weekly Foundayo decline, putting Lilly behind Novo Nordisk.-5.8%
2026-08-24NVO@KontraInvest+0.45Reports Wegovy prescription growth and a weekly Foundayo decline, putting Lilly behind Novo Nordisk.-2.8%
2026-08-24NKE@KontraInvest+0.30Lists Nike's strategic errors but argues they are reversible, albeit slowly.-2.8%
2026-08-23·@KontraInvest·Estimates active US users from weekly prescription volumes and uncounted usage.·
2026-08-23LLY@KontraInvest+0.00Defines which Novo Nordisk and Lilly diabetes and obesity drugs are included in weekly data.-6.4%
2026-08-23NVO@KontraInvest+0.00Defines which Novo Nordisk and Lilly diabetes and obesity drugs are included in weekly data.-2.4%
2026-08-22LLY@KontraInvest+0.20Reports 2.8 million weekly GLP-1 prescriptions, up 1%, as evidence the obesity market is expanding.-6.4%
2026-08-22NVO@KontraInvest+0.20Reports 2.8 million weekly GLP-1 prescriptions, up 1%, as evidence the obesity market is expanding.-2.4%
2026-08-21LLY@KontraInvest-0.15Compares weekly GLP-1 prescription volumes, showing Wegovy pill far ahead of Foundayo.-6.4%
2026-08-21NVO@KontraInvest+0.45Compares weekly GLP-1 prescription volumes, showing Wegovy pill far ahead of Foundayo.-2.4%
2026-08-20MRNA@KontraInvest-0.20Uses biotech's inherent volatility to frame MRNA's behavior cautiously.+3.5%
2026-08-19MRNA@KontraInvest+0.55Highlights the unusual magnitude of MRNA's move relative to its market capitalization.-20.9%

Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.