Author
@KrisAbdelmessih KrisAbdelmessih
grade Ax.com/KrisAbdelmessih ↗
Derivatives and volatility quant who prices narratives into falsifiable probability distributions
Writes original options-volatility and portfolio-constructio
trader score
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hit rate
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mean α
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signals 14d
4
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Not yet in the scored-bets universe (fewer than 20 scoreable calls). Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +0.1% since posting (mean over 2 mentions with price data).
Recent signals4receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | MU | @KrisAbdelmessih | +0.15 | Notes elevated one-year collar reward-to-risk due to persistent call skew. | -0.3% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | SPOT | @KrisAbdelmessih | -0.20 | Expresses a bearish media and podcast thesis while mentioning analysis of SPOT puts. | -0.5% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | · | @KrisAbdelmessih | · | Argues optimistic option pricing conflicts with an economy dependent on unemployed consumers. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-16 | · | @KrisAbdelmessih | · | Infers JS operates farther along the risk-capacity frontier based on exceptional historical profits and a recent loss. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.