@Leoskie_L Leoskie_L
Deep Taiwan/Asia AI-semiconductor supply-chain analyst who reasons from hardware physics to obscure suppliers
Writes long-form, ticker-specific fundamental theses on the
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.
Across their last 20 scored bets: 60% hit rate, +0.44% mean alpha, trader score +0.76. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -4.8% since posting (mean over 41 mentions with price data).
Leoskie_L is mainly mapping AI hardware supply chains: capacitors, power semis, advanced packaging, memory, and liquid cooling. The most actionable single-ticker lean is constructive MU into memory shortages and earnings, with WOLF also framed as a scarce power-components leader; AMD is treated skeptically outside the broader TSMC packaging basket. No explicit position disclosures or directional trade calls appeared, so conviction is inferred from repeated frameworks rather than stated adds or exits.
No positions disclosed this window — everything below is commentary, not book talk.
| claim | ticker | dir | strength | signals | skin | theme | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSM is the central beneficiary of glass substrate and CoPoS packaging development. | TSM | ▲ | 0.07 | 6 | · | Advanced packaging and glass sub | tweet ↗ |
| NVDA, AVGO, MRVL, AMD and MU participate in the broader AI packaging beneficiary basket. | NVDA | ▲ | 0.07 | 6 | · | Advanced packaging and glass sub | tweet ↗ |
| MU benefits from memory shortages spilling into consumer electronics, with Apple price hikes as confirmation. | MU | ▲ | 0.04 | 3 | · | Memory shortage and MU earnings | tweet ↗ |
| MU earnings can beat, but expectations are high and exposure may need protection. | MU | ▲ | 0.04 | 3 | · | Memory shortage and MU earnings | tweet ↗ |
| WOLF is an irreplaceable SiC or power-components leader that can rally with the theme. | WOLF | ▲ | 0.01 | 3 | · | Power semiconductors and SiC moa | tweet ↗ |
| NVDA retains ecosystem advantages through CUDA despite AI box hype elsewhere. | NVDA | ▲ | 0.01 | 2 | · | AI box skepticism and Nvidia eco | tweet ↗ |
| Taiwan and Japan capacitor suppliers should benefit from seller-favored allocation and premium pricing. | 6996.T | ▲ | 0.01 | 6 | · | Passive components and capacitor | tweet ↗ |
| AMD AI box and Strix Halo promotion looks overhyped and possibly coordinated. | AMD | ▼ | 0.01 | 3 | · | AI box skepticism and Nvidia eco | tweet ↗ |
| RKLB has opportunity among second-tier U.S. space names, but supply-chain timing may lag. | RKLB | ▲ | 0.01 | 2 | · | Liquid cooling and space supply- | tweet ↗ |
| AI server power-semiconductor winners require layer-by-layer differentiation rather than generic exposure. | NVDA | ◆ | 0.00 | 5 | · | Power semiconductors and SiC moa | tweet ↗ |
| 6752.T and capacitor peers are positioned for AI and EV power-component exposure. | 6752.T | ▲ | 0.00 | 4 | · | Passive components and capacitor | tweet ↗ |
| Aluminum capacitors have upside as Japanese suppliers begin raising prices. | 6997.T | ▲ | 0.00 | 3 | · | Passive components and capacitor | tweet ↗ |
| Liquid-cooling connector bottlenecks depend on reliability, qualification and supply-chain role depth. | RKLB | ◆ | 0.00 | 3 | · | Liquid cooling and space supply- | tweet ↗ |
The author stayed concentrated on AI hardware supply-chain maps, especially passive components, power semis, advanced packaging, and memory. MU and WOLF carried the clearest positive single-name tilt, while AMD was the main skeptical target outside its inclusion in a broader TSMC packaging basket. There were no explicit adds, trims, exits, or directional trade calls in the payload, so no defensible flip or stated position change is visible.
| ticker | signals | sentiment | calls | pos | news | action | alignment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | 6 | +0.19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| MU | 5 | +0.44 | 0 | 0 | 0 | bullish commentary | commentary only |
| RKLB | 4 | +0.34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | bullish commentary | commentary only |
| AVGO | 4 | +0.40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | bullish commentary | commentary only |
| TSM | 4 | +0.32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | bullish commentary | commentary only |
| WOLF | 3 | +0.25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| AMD | 3 | -0.10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| GOOGL | 2 | +0.05 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| TSLA | 1 | +0.20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| AAOI | 1 | +0.35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | bullish commentary | commentary only |
| 2472.TW | 1 | +0.20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| 6996.T | 1 | +0.20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| 8042.TW | 1 | +0.20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| MRVL | 1 | +0.25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| AAPL | 1 | -0.05 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| MTK | 1 | -0.10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| 6752.T | 1 | +0.20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| 6997.T | 1 | +0.20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| SPCX | 1 | +0.20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| 6449.TW | 1 | +0.20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| INTC | 1 | -0.20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
Alignment separates skin-in-the-game from commentary: ✓ = the author discloses a position consistent with their talk; “call (no pos)” = directional call without a disclosed position; “commentary” = opinion only.
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | 6531.TW | @Leoskie_L | +0.15 | Says AP Memory at ~950 is not especially cheap and technical alpha needs 2027 customer validation. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | META | @Leoskie_L | +0.35 | Says Mark is flooring it on semiconductors, implying Meta semiconductor/AI capex enthusiasm. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | MU | @Leoskie_L | +0.35 | Author says they are holding Micron and views current selling as profit-taking, not abandonment. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | MU | @Leoskie_L | -0.25 | Framework that AI semis are shifting from broad repricing to valuation digestion and divergence. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | AMD | @Leoskie_L | -0.20 | Framework that AI semis are shifting from broad repricing to valuation digestion and divergence. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | MRVL | @Leoskie_L | -0.20 | Framework that AI semis are shifting from broad repricing to valuation digestion and divergence. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | AAPL | @Leoskie_L | +0.05 | Framework that AI semis are shifting from broad repricing to valuation digestion and divergence. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | NVDA | @Leoskie_L | -0.20 | Framework that AI semis are shifting from broad repricing to valuation digestion and divergence. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | AMAT | @Leoskie_L | -0.20 | Framework that AI semis are shifting from broad repricing to valuation digestion and divergence. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | · | @Leoskie_L | · | AI supply-chain framework arguing market is repricing physical bottlenecks across power and materials. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @Leoskie_L | · | Bullish on an unnamed company due to high gross margin, rising revenue, capacity expansion and Trump praise. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | META | @Leoskie_L | +0.35 | Argues Meta Compute is utilization phase, not proof of AI compute oversupply. | -4.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | GOOGL | @Leoskie_L | +0.10 | Argues Meta Compute is utilization phase, not proof of AI compute oversupply. | -0.4% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | SOXX | @Leoskie_L | -0.10 | Argues Meta Compute is utilization phase, not proof of AI compute oversupply. | -5.6% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | MU | @Leoskie_L | +0.20 | Long thesis on Bernstein upgrade changing SanDisk valuation framework versus Micron. | -15.5% | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.