Author · brief 2026-06-22

@Leoskie_L Leoskie_L

Deep Taiwan/Asia AI-semiconductor supply-chain analyst who reasons from hardware physics to obscure suppliers

Writes long-form, ticker-specific fundamental theses on the

trader score
+0.76
hit rate
60%
mean α
+0.44%
signals 14d
74

Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.

Their picks, scored

Across their last 20 scored bets: 60% hit rate, +0.44% mean alpha, trader score +0.76. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -4.8% since posting (mean over 41 mentions with price data).

Supply-chain frameworks dominate with selective MU and WOLF conviction

Leoskie_L is mainly mapping AI hardware supply chains: capacitors, power semis, advanced packaging, memory, and liquid cooling. The most actionable single-ticker lean is constructive MU into memory shortages and earnings, with WOLF also framed as a scarce power-components leader; AMD is treated skeptically outside the broader TSMC packaging basket. No explicit position disclosures or directional trade calls appeared, so conviction is inferred from repeated frameworks rather than stated adds or exits.

Disclosed booknames the author says they hold — positions, not commentary

No positions disclosed this window — everything below is commentary, not book talk.

Themes6analyst read · 2026-06-22
Passive components and capacitor allocation pressure
bullNEW6 signals
6752.T6996.T6449.TW2472.TW8042.TW6997.T
Power semiconductors and SiC moat mapping
bullintensifying9 signals
⚠ 67% of theme signals are NVDA — flag pump risk
Advanced packaging and glass substrate beneficiaries
bullintensifying23 signals
Memory shortage and MU earnings setup
bullintensifying12 signals
⚠ 50% of theme signals are NVDA — flag pump risk
AI box skepticism and Nvidia ecosystem edge
mixedintensifying9 signals
⚠ 67% of theme signals are NVDA — flag pump risk
Liquid cooling and space supply-chain qualification
neutralfading4 signals
⚠ 100% of theme signals are RKLB — flag pump risk
Hypotheses13what the author said, ticker-anchored — ✓ skin = disclosed position behind it
claimtickerdirstrengthsignalsskinthemereceipt
TSM is the central beneficiary of glass substrate and CoPoS packaging development.TSM0.076·Advanced packaging and glass sub
NVDA, AVGO, MRVL, AMD and MU participate in the broader AI packaging beneficiary basket.NVDA0.076·Advanced packaging and glass sub
MU benefits from memory shortages spilling into consumer electronics, with Apple price hikes as confirmation.MU0.043·Memory shortage and MU earnings
MU earnings can beat, but expectations are high and exposure may need protection.MU0.043·Memory shortage and MU earnings
WOLF is an irreplaceable SiC or power-components leader that can rally with the theme.WOLF0.013·Power semiconductors and SiC moa
NVDA retains ecosystem advantages through CUDA despite AI box hype elsewhere.NVDA0.012·AI box skepticism and Nvidia eco
Taiwan and Japan capacitor suppliers should benefit from seller-favored allocation and premium pricing.6996.T0.016·Passive components and capacitor
AMD AI box and Strix Halo promotion looks overhyped and possibly coordinated.AMD0.013·AI box skepticism and Nvidia eco
RKLB has opportunity among second-tier U.S. space names, but supply-chain timing may lag.RKLB0.012·Liquid cooling and space supply-
AI server power-semiconductor winners require layer-by-layer differentiation rather than generic exposure.NVDA0.005·Power semiconductors and SiC moa
6752.T and capacitor peers are positioned for AI and EV power-component exposure.6752.T0.004·Passive components and capacitor
Aluminum capacitors have upside as Japanese suppliers begin raising prices.6997.T0.003·Passive components and capacitor
Liquid-cooling connector bottlenecks depend on reliability, qualification and supply-chain role depth.RKLB0.003·Liquid cooling and space supply-
Direction this week

The author stayed concentrated on AI hardware supply-chain maps, especially passive components, power semis, advanced packaging, and memory. MU and WOLF carried the clearest positive single-name tilt, while AMD was the main skeptical target outside its inclusion in a broader TSMC packaging basket. There were no explicit adds, trims, exits, or directional trade calls in the payload, so no defensible flip or stated position change is visible.

Per-ticker coverage21positions first, then by signal count
tickersignalssentimentcallsposnewsactionalignment
NVDA6+0.19000neutral commentaryneutral
MU5+0.44000bullish commentarycommentary only
RKLB4+0.34000bullish commentarycommentary only
AVGO4+0.40000bullish commentarycommentary only
TSM4+0.32000bullish commentarycommentary only
WOLF3+0.25000neutral commentaryneutral
AMD3-0.10000neutral commentaryneutral
GOOGL2+0.05000neutral commentaryneutral
TSLA1+0.20000neutral commentaryneutral
AAOI1+0.35000bullish commentarycommentary only
2472.TW1+0.20000neutral commentaryneutral
6996.T1+0.20000neutral commentaryneutral
8042.TW1+0.20000neutral commentaryneutral
MRVL1+0.25000neutral commentaryneutral
AAPL1-0.05000neutral commentaryneutral
MTK1-0.10000neutral commentaryneutral
6752.T1+0.20000neutral commentaryneutral
6997.T1+0.20000neutral commentaryneutral
SPCX1+0.20000neutral commentaryneutral
6449.TW1+0.20000neutral commentaryneutral
INTC1-0.20000neutral commentaryneutral

Alignment separates skin-in-the-game from commentary: ✓ = the author discloses a position consistent with their talk; “call (no pos)” = directional call without a disclosed position; “commentary” = opinion only.

Best hypotheses5their highest-scoring claims in our index
Hot jobs data, higher rates, SpaceX IPO liquidity demand, and sector rotation could keep AI megacaps under pressure.
neutralHIGH8 co-supporters
MediaTek’s AI ASIC revenue outlook is materially under-modeled, with raised guides, large 2026-2028 revenue forecasts, a
bullHIGH4 co-supporters
Capital is rotating into photonics and physical AI infrastructure, making AAOI a leadership beneficiary within the new m
bullHIGH6 co-supporters
AI data-center power scarcity should structurally benefit Bloom because fast onsite generation is becoming a bottleneck
bullHIGH6 co-supporters
AAOI’s valuation may already assume unproven optical execution, revenue growth, and engineering success that remain insu
bearMEDIUM4 co-supporters
Recent signals15receipts included
date (PT)tickerauthorsentwhat they saidsince thenreceipt
2026-07-036531.TW@Leoskie_L+0.15Says AP Memory at ~950 is not especially cheap and technical alpha needs 2027 customer validation.·
2026-07-03META@Leoskie_L+0.35Says Mark is flooring it on semiconductors, implying Meta semiconductor/AI capex enthusiasm.
2026-07-03MU@Leoskie_L+0.35Author says they are holding Micron and views current selling as profit-taking, not abandonment.
2026-07-03MU@Leoskie_L-0.25Framework that AI semis are shifting from broad repricing to valuation digestion and divergence.
2026-07-03AMD@Leoskie_L-0.20Framework that AI semis are shifting from broad repricing to valuation digestion and divergence.
2026-07-03MRVL@Leoskie_L-0.20Framework that AI semis are shifting from broad repricing to valuation digestion and divergence.
2026-07-03AAPL@Leoskie_L+0.05Framework that AI semis are shifting from broad repricing to valuation digestion and divergence.
2026-07-03NVDA@Leoskie_L-0.20Framework that AI semis are shifting from broad repricing to valuation digestion and divergence.
2026-07-03AMAT@Leoskie_L-0.20Framework that AI semis are shifting from broad repricing to valuation digestion and divergence.
2026-07-03·@Leoskie_L·AI supply-chain framework arguing market is repricing physical bottlenecks across power and materials.·
2026-07-02·@Leoskie_L·Bullish on an unnamed company due to high gross margin, rising revenue, capacity expansion and Trump praise.·
2026-07-01META@Leoskie_L+0.35Argues Meta Compute is utilization phase, not proof of AI compute oversupply.-4.9%
2026-07-01GOOGL@Leoskie_L+0.10Argues Meta Compute is utilization phase, not proof of AI compute oversupply.-0.4%
2026-07-01SOXX@Leoskie_L-0.10Argues Meta Compute is utilization phase, not proof of AI compute oversupply.-5.6%
2026-06-30MU@Leoskie_L+0.20Long thesis on Bernstein upgrade changing SanDisk valuation framework versus Micron.-15.5%

Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.