@longriverCM longriverCM
Disciplined value stock-picker blending bottom-up fundamentals with super-investor 13F tracking
Posts real-time, tickered value and special-situations inves
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.
Across their last 20 scored bets: 50% hit rate, +0.00% mean alpha, trader score +0.00. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +1.3% since posting (mean over 29 mentions with price data).
longriverCM is selectively hunting for long entries in CRBG, CDE, PDD, and TTD while keeping several names on watchlists at lower prices. The distinctive read is cautious value discipline: prefer JD/PDD over BABA, accumulate CRBG near $30, buy CDE for precious-metals exposure, but avoid Chinese EVs and remain wary of rich software/media valuations. Late-window activity centered on new or planned adds rather than exits, with the clearest active trade being more PDD below $75 after buying too early.
Conviction is concentrated in selective planned longs: CRBG accumulation near $30, CDE buying plans, more PDD only below $75, and a small TTD starter near $15. The author is mixed on China platforms, preferring JD and PDD over BABA while acknowledging weak retail sales pressure, and is outright bearish on Chinese EVs. No true position flip is visible in the supplied signals; the week reads as disciplined entry hunting with several valuation and macro caveats.
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | · | @longriverCM | · | Jobs report: unemployment fell but payroll growth missed, revisions down, participation fell. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | MELI | @longriverCM | +0.25 | Looks back that MELI at 1550 was a decent missed opportunity. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | HHH | @longriverCM | +0.75 | HHH thesis: structural transformation into long-duration capital compounding platform. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | NKE | @longriverCM | -0.45 | Reports Nike FY and Q4 revenue declines, including direct revenue down 7%. | +7.4% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | BRK.B | @longriverCM | +0.55 | might buy more Berkshire once price drops — Long Berkshire thesis with stated intent to buy more on a drop. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | BRK.A | @longriverCM | +0.55 | might buy more Berkshire once price drops — Long Berkshire thesis with stated intent to buy more on a drop. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | SIRI | @longriverCM | +0.30 | Positive but vague comment that SIRI is so far so good. | +3.3% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-29 | UBER | @longriverCM | -0.25 | Skeptical AI adoption take citing Uber and Ford examples. | -1.4% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-29 | F | @longriverCM | -0.15 | Skeptical AI adoption take citing Uber and Ford examples. | -4.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-26 | BMBL | @longriverCM | -0.65 | Says Bumble is probably shrinking and risks losing network effects. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-26 | PFSI | @longriverCM | +0.55 | Detailed value thesis says PFSI is pressured but near liquidation value opportunity. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-26 | UWMC | @longriverCM | +0.00 | Detailed value thesis says PFSI is pressured but near liquidation value opportunity. | -0.5% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-26 | RKT | @longriverCM | +0.00 | Detailed value thesis says PFSI is pressured but near liquidation value opportunity. | +5.1% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-26 | BABA | @longriverCM | +0.35 | Regrets missing BABA at $90, implying interest at that price. | +1.4% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-25 | JD | @longriverCM | -0.55 | Says PDD and JD are free falling overnight and asks what is happening in Asia. | +5.7% | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.