Author
@longtundiary longtundiary
grade Ax.com/longtundiary ↗
Thai-language AI-compute supply-chain analyst mapping moats and second-order winners
Posts thesis-driven, reasoning-heavy threads (largely in Tha
trader score
+0.92
hit rate
50%
mean α
+0.78%
signals 14d
29
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 20 scored bets: 50% hit rate, +0.78% mean alpha, trader score +0.92. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -0.2% since posting (mean over 22 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | · | @longtundiary | · | Data-center capacity is framed as a local permitting and political-risk thesis. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | RBRK | @longtundiary | +0.45 | Observes an eye-catching rally across cybersecurity stocks and assumes results were strong. | -13.1% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | OKTA | @longtundiary | +0.45 | Observes an eye-catching rally across cybersecurity stocks and assumes results were strong. | -3.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | CRWD | @longtundiary | +0.45 | Observes an eye-catching rally across cybersecurity stocks and assumes results were strong. | -4.2% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | PANW | @longtundiary | +0.45 | Observes an eye-catching rally across cybersecurity stocks and assumes results were strong. | -2.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | CDNS | @longtundiary | +0.20 | Argues AI chip coding does not yet threaten commercial EDA tools and may reinforce their role. | +1.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | SNPS | @longtundiary | +0.35 | Argues AI chip coding does not yet threaten commercial EDA tools and may reinforce their role. | +8.0% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | ZETA | @longtundiary | +0.30 | Jokingly contrasts Salesforce's architecture with ZETA's machine-learning-oriented core. | +8.2% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | · | @longtundiary | · | Thai-language remark says SaaS is in serious trouble. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | SPCX | @longtundiary | -0.25 | Says another TAM estimate is even more extreme than SPCX's, with mocking tone. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-24 | ARM | @longtundiary | -0.55 | Argues NVDA's RISC-V support could create demand outside ARM and raises downside risk for ARM. | +0.1% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-24 | NVDA | @longtundiary | +0.25 | Argues NVDA's RISC-V support could create demand outside ARM and raises downside risk for ARM. | +4.4% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-21 | PLTR | @longtundiary | +0.45 | Portfolio update discloses new AXON and PLTR positions, a meaningful GOOGL trim and continued ZETA holding. | +3.5% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-21 | AXON | @longtundiary | +0.45 | Portfolio update discloses new AXON and PLTR positions, a meaningful GOOGL trim and continued ZETA holding. | -4.3% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-21 | ZETA | @longtundiary | +0.20 | Portfolio update discloses new AXON and PLTR positions, a meaningful GOOGL trim and continued ZETA holding. | +5.1% | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.