Author
@longtundiary longtundiary
grade Ax.com/longtundiary ↗
Thai-language AI-compute supply-chain analyst mapping moats and second-order winners
Posts thesis-driven, reasoning-heavy threads (largely in Tha
trader score
+0.57
hit rate
50%
mean α
+0.36%
signals 14d
27
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 20 scored bets: 50% hit rate, +0.36% mean alpha, trader score +0.57. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -8.9% since posting (mean over 21 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | · | @longtundiary | · | Notes rapid neocloud growth and hyperscaler spending on ASICs. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @longtundiary | · | Jokes that the news is bad enough to want the stock market closed before it opens. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | ZETA | @longtundiary | +0.60 | Says it is becoming difficult to bring oneself to sell ZETA. | +5.3% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @longtundiary | · | Notes that the premarket is no longer falling. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | ASML | @longtundiary | -0.35 | Notes that ASML shares are falling despite extensive writeups. | -8.5% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | MU | @longtundiary | +0.30 | Jokes that Elon favors MU because pricing negotiations may be easier. | -7.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-11 | AMZN | @longtundiary | +0.25 | Author views the switch-chip role as well aligned with Amazon's vendor-neutral customer strategy. | -5.5% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-10 | META | @longtundiary | +0.20 | Speculates that Meta ads and a private Muse agent could operate together under a new selection model. | -10.6% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-10 | NVDA | @longtundiary | +0.55 | Argues a strong US open model such as Nemotron would reinforce demand for Nvidia hardware. | -8.0% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-10 | META | @longtundiary | +0.35 | Explores how private AI agents could select Meta ads without exposing user data to the ad system. | -10.6% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-10 | LITE | @longtundiary | +0.70 | OCS demand from Google and potentially Nvidia is framed as a dual growth benefit for LITE. | -31.5% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-10 | GOOGL | @longtundiary | +0.20 | OCS demand from Google and potentially Nvidia is framed as a dual growth benefit for LITE. | -8.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-10 | NVDA | @longtundiary | +0.20 | OCS demand from Google and potentially Nvidia is framed as a dual growth benefit for LITE. | -8.0% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-08 | · | @longtundiary | · | Reports that Claude created an entire video aside from the author's voice. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-06 | MU | @longtundiary | +0.45 | Expresses a bullish view on MU and Samsung in question form. | -16.1% | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.