Author

@ManchesterUtd81 ManchesterUtd81

Anon energy-refining specialist threading mechanistic oil value-chain analysis with a higher-rates macro view

Posts original, reasoning-heavy threads and replies analyzin

trader score
+1.10
hit rate
80%
mean α
+0.74%
signals 14d
14

Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.

Their picks, scored

Across their last 5 scored bets: 80% hit rate, +0.74% mean alpha, trader score +1.10. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -0.0% since posting (mean over 3 mentions with price data).

Recent signals14receipts included
date (PT)tickerauthorsentwhat they saidsince thenreceipt
2026-08-27·@ManchesterUtd81·Refiner comments imply a fragile but favorable environment if hurricanes and outages are avoided.·
2026-08-27·@ManchesterUtd81·Advises seeking assets that attract allocation as currency weakens, but names no asset.·
2026-08-27LYB@ManchesterUtd81-0.15Highlights VLO beside the shuttered LYB refinery as refined-product costs continue rising.+1.0%
2026-08-27VLO@ManchesterUtd81+0.35Highlights VLO beside the shuttered LYB refinery as refined-product costs continue rising.+1.7%
2026-08-25·@ManchesterUtd81·Objects to attacks on downstream oil assets, implicitly favoring preservation of sector capacity.·
2026-08-24·@ManchesterUtd81·Author expects tariffs to broaden materially by the midterms.·
2026-08-22·@ManchesterUtd81·Argues investors must know when to redeploy capital after avoiding losses, even when buying feels uncomfortable.·
2026-08-21·@ManchesterUtd81·Reports a 90-day tariff-free fuel-import allowance and commitment to sell 25% below market.·
2026-08-21·@ManchesterUtd81·Notes elevated refinery crack spreads benefiting refiners while alarming consumers.·
2026-08-20·@ManchesterUtd81·Sarcastically criticizes interventionist complaints while explicitly calling for lower rates.·
2026-08-20QQQ@ManchesterUtd81-0.25Mocks investors who hear about value opportunities yet continue buying QQQ.+0.8%
2026-08-15·@ManchesterUtd81·Sarcastically warns that holders of AI-capex private credit may face trouble.·
2026-08-15·@ManchesterUtd81·Suggests Americans are angered by higher gasoline prices.·
2026-08-14·@ManchesterUtd81·Author avoids private credit because its reporting is difficult to understand·

Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.