Author

@mark_dow mark_dow

Mechanistic macro/monetary-policy debunker; central-bank plumbing over narratives

Posts reasoned, often contrarian threads on monetary policy

trader score
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hit rate
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mean α
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signals 14d
48

Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.

Their picks, scored

Not yet in the scored-bets universe (fewer than 20 scoreable calls). Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +3.8% since posting (mean over 1 mentions with price data).

Recent signals15receipts included
date (PT)tickerauthorsentwhat they saidsince thenreceipt
2026-08-27·@mark_dow·Argues the market doubts the policymaker's anti-inflation resolve and perceives politicization.·
2026-08-26NVDA@mark_dow+0.15Satirical framing casts Nvidia's earnings-related action as a central-bank rate cut.+3.8%
2026-08-26·@mark_dow·Explains Treasury liability management as accommodating post-bank-run demand for short-duration paper.·
2026-08-26·@mark_dow·Questions whether Treasury should make directional liability-management bets.·
2026-08-26·@mark_dow·Argues Treasury's short-paper issuance reflected demand after bank runs rather than political risk.·
2026-08-26·@mark_dow·Contrasts Yellen's bank-run response with Bessent's effort to manage long-term yields.·
2026-08-25·@mark_dow·Approves of Druckenmiller's policy analysis but does not restate the underlying thesis.·
2026-08-24·@mark_dow·Warns policymakers with finite resources cannot sustainably fight market pricing.·
2026-08-24·@mark_dow·Mocks the inconsistency of advocating less forecasting while forecasting AI productivity gains.·
2026-08-24·@mark_dow·Says political pressure to lower mortgage rates is driving ineffective policy and credibility damage.·
2026-08-21·@mark_dow·Questions Warsh's motive for reducing Fed press conferences and communication·
2026-08-21·@mark_dow·Rejects labeling every dollar decline or balance-sheet change as debasement or QE/QT·
2026-08-21·@mark_dow·Mocks contradictory claims about who bears tariff costs·
2026-08-21·@mark_dow·Sarcastically highlights inconsistent claims about tariff incidence·
2026-08-20·@mark_dow·Argues intervention will fail, long rates remain problematic, and political pressure on the Fed will intensify.·

Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.