@mathlonning mathlonning
Concentrated small-cap fundamental bull who models organ-perfusion, semi-test, and satellite names in real time
Posts original bottom-up theses, valuation comps, and operat
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.
Across their last 20 scored bets: 15% hit rate, -1.75% mean alpha, trader score -1.85. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -0.9% since posting (mean over 144 mentions with price data).
Author is concentrated in high-beta space names and TMDX, with disclosed longs in ASTS, MNTS, HAWK, MDA, TMDX and smaller speculative names. Distinctive read is that ASTS derisking and space-sector liquidity can drive rerates, while TMDX flight activity supports a beat-and-raise setup. Late week shows some risk management: sold TMDX calls to buy HAWK, sold MNTS on sharp intraday moves, and turned more cautious on stretched semis and violent space-name drawdowns.
Conviction is concentrated in space longs and TMDX, with ASTS, MNTS, HAWK, MDA and TMDX repeatedly disclosed or actively traded. There is evidence of adds in ASTS, MNTS, BAER, MRLN and HAWK, plus trims in MNTS and TMDX calls after sharp moves. The main risk flags are single-name TMDX concentration inside its theme, ASTS-heavy space exposure, and late-week caution on violent space pullbacks and stretched semis.
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | · | @mathlonning | · | AI take argues compute alone will not reach AGI without breakthroughs. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | ASTS | @mathlonning | +0.65 | Says ASTS technology critics have been proven wrong repeatedly. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | ASTS | @mathlonning | +0.20 | Says ASTS closed near $85 and prior weekly prediction went right. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | TMDX | @mathlonning | -0.15 | Speculates increased flights may be tied to CHOPS with lower revenue per flight. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | ASTS | @mathlonning | +0.35 | Frames ASTS and Starlink competition as positive for direct-to-device technology. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | SPCX | @mathlonning | +0.35 | Frames ASTS and Starlink competition as positive for direct-to-device technology. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @mathlonning | · | Says rotation out of semis is healthy and depressed sectors have tailwinds. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | TRT | @mathlonning | +0.45 | Says TRT looks buyable again, expressing bullish view without trade mechanics. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | HAWK | @mathlonning | +0.30 | Says HAWK joined the space-stock rebound. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | ASTS | @mathlonning | +0.55 | Says ASTS is a matter of national security. | -1.1% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | TMDX | @mathlonning | +0.15 | Raises question whether Europe operations can offset US transplant seasonality. | +1.5% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | ASTS | @mathlonning | +0.75 | Says T-Mobile x ASTS is inevitable and massive. | -1.1% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | BAER | @mathlonning | +0.55 | Says BAER business has been strong and stock can move fast. | +1.6% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | ASTS | @mathlonning | +0.65 | ASTS price is below prior level despite MNO deals, SCS approval, and J-LEO contract milestones. | -1.1% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | ASTS | @mathlonning | +0.45 | Argues satellite costs matter less as partners may fund satellites, with Japan/Rakuten first. | -1.1% | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.