Author
@michaeljburry michaeljburry
grade Ax.com/michaeljburry ↗
Contrarian forensic bear dissecting AI-infra financing and credit-cycle history
Posts original, reasoning-heavy bearish theses on the AI bui
trader score
+0.82
hit rate
46%
mean α
+1.45%
signals 14d
22
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 13 scored bets: 46% hit rate, +1.45% mean alpha, trader score +0.82. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +9.2% since posting (mean over 7 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | CRWV | @michaeljburry | -0.60 | Highlights CoreWeave's selloff as evidence that rising borrowing costs are a pressure point. | -11.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | FNMA | @michaeljburry | +0.30 | Discloses swapping Fannie and Freddie common shares for junior preferred shares. | +15.0% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | FMCC | @michaeljburry | +0.30 | Discloses swapping Fannie and Freddie common shares for junior preferred shares. | +17.8% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-12 | · | @michaeljburry | · | References ongoing work consolidating an unspecified large short thesis. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-12 | AVGO | @michaeljburry | -0.15 | Broadcom CEO questions AI returns and likens many AI investors to casino gamblers. | -9.3% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-12 | · | @michaeljburry | · | Author recounts a rug pull and realized losses on unnamed past holdings | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-11 | · | @michaeljburry | · | Author doubts that value in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will be unlocked | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-11 | FNMA | @michaeljburry | -0.15 | Discloses making an unspecified move in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac after major retracements. | -1.4% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-11 | FMCC | @michaeljburry | -0.15 | Discloses making an unspecified move in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac after major retracements. | +0.8% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-11 | · | @michaeljburry | · | New-home sales per community fell 18% in September versus a normal seasonal decline of 4%. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-11 | · | @michaeljburry | · | Presents a bearish long-term thesis on homebuilders based on commodity economics and housing fundamentals. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-09 | · | @michaeljburry | · | Compares current index strength amid weak breadth to late-stage dot-com denial. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-08 | · | @michaeljburry | · | Rejects comparisons between current AI spending and the dot-com era based on cash flow and index impact. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-08 | · | @michaeljburry | · | Flags a rare, strong market-breadth signal but leaves its direction to the linked chart. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-08 | · | @michaeljburry | · | Compares today's market denial and breadth signal with the early stages of the 2000 and 2008 bear markets. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.