Author
@michaeljburry michaeljburry
grade Ax.com/michaeljburry ↗
Contrarian forensic bear dissecting AI-infra financing and credit-cycle history
Posts original, reasoning-heavy bearish theses on the AI bui
trader score
-0.10
hit rate
65%
mean α
-0.06%
signals 14d
14
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 20 scored bets: 65% hit rate, -0.06% mean alpha, trader score -0.10. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -0.7% since posting (mean over 5 mentions with price data).
Recent signals14receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | · | @michaeljburry | · | Reports Meituan's surprise quarterly profit and above-estimate revenue growth. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | · | @michaeljburry | · | States that unspecified long and short positions were added, including one new position. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-24 | · | @michaeljburry | · | Compares mold litigation to asbestos claims and says the fears may be overblown. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-24 | TPLWF | @michaeljburry | +0.90 | Buying TPLWF in the low $3s and adding TPW.AX shares aggressively. — Explicitly reports recent purchases and continued aggressive accumulation in both listings. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-24 | TPW.AX | @michaeljburry | +0.90 | Buying TPLWF in the low $3s and adding TPW.AX shares aggressively. — Explicitly reports recent purchases and continued aggressive accumulation in both listings. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-23 | · | @michaeljburry | · | Warns that bullwhip effects will cause economic or supply-chain pain. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-23 | BABA | @michaeljburry | -0.70 | Discloses replacing BABA with a large JD position and rejects repurchasing BABA absent a 50% decline. | -0.4% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-23 | JD | @michaeljburry | +0.70 | Discloses replacing BABA with a large JD position and rejects repurchasing BABA absent a 50% decline. | -2.1% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-21 | · | @michaeljburry | · | Promotes a discussion of AI concentration, efficient models, and buying and shorting | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-20 | · | @michaeljburry | · | Invokes Soros while highlighting larger Treasury buybacks, mispriced yields, and poor 30-year liquidity. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-20 | MRNA | @michaeljburry | -0.25 | Expresses skepticism toward Moderna's announcement without specifying the objection. | +3.5% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-18 | TSM | @michaeljburry | +0.15 | Calls Etched serious Nvidia competition, citing rapid chip deployment and Nvidia engineer recruitment. | +1.0% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-18 | NVDA | @michaeljburry | -0.65 | Calls Etched serious Nvidia competition, citing rapid chip deployment and Nvidia engineer recruitment. | -1.0% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-16 | · | @michaeljburry | · | Reiterates an earlier warning about a compression threat expected to receive broader coverage later. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.