Author
@michaeljburry michaeljburry
grade Ax.com/michaeljburry ↗
Contrarian forensic bear dissecting AI-infra financing and credit-cycle history
Posts original, reasoning-heavy bearish theses on the AI bui
trader score
-0.06
hit rate
45%
mean α
-0.04%
signals 14d
34
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 20 scored bets: 45% hit rate, -0.04% mean alpha, trader score -0.06. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -2.3% since posting (mean over 16 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | FMCC | @michaeljburry | +0.00 | Hints at a future binary announcement for FNMA and FMCC but gives no clear direction. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | FNMA | @michaeljburry | +0.00 | Hints at a future binary announcement for FNMA and FMCC but gives no clear direction. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @michaeljburry | · | Author says he is mostly long, but names no specific ticker. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | META | @michaeljburry | -0.45 | Criticizes Meta cloud push as wrong direction and excess AI compute capacity. | -4.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | SOXX | @michaeljburry | -0.20 | Mentions window-dressing, SOXX and CAT, saying it is only a matter of time now. | -5.6% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | CAT | @michaeljburry | -0.20 | Mentions window-dressing, SOXX and CAT, saying it is only a matter of time now. | -2.8% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | · | @michaeljburry | · | Says an unspecified trade or company worked through DeepSeek MoE and tariff news. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | · | @michaeljburry | · | Buying a long-term compounder on a simple rule. — Forward long framing, but no ticker is named in the standalone text. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-29 | · | @michaeljburry | · | Says China has advantages in power production and state direction for hardware/software fit. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-29 | · | @michaeljburry | · | Post title frames U.S. market structure and value as fragile with coiled tension. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-28 | · | @michaeljburry | · | References study of past crises and crashes for dollar-cost averaging with volume signals. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-28 | · | @michaeljburry | · | Promotes trading post mentioning Hong Kong adds, sale to add, new position and short cover. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-28 | · | @michaeljburry | · | Argues pricing power collapse would pressure margins and real GDP. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-28 | UAA | @michaeljburry | -0.45 | Says UAA was never a good business while LULU has durable multi-decade success. | +5.2% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-28 | LULU | @michaeljburry | +0.55 | Says UAA was never a good business while LULU has durable multi-decade success. | +0.7% | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.