@michaelsikand michaelsikand
Thematic AI-infra and defense PM pitching tickered asymmetric-bet baskets to retail
Runs and markets themed equity 'fund' baskets (Photonics, Me
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.
Across their last 20 scored bets: 50% hit rate, -0.51% mean alpha, trader score -0.59. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -3.8% since posting (mean over 42 mentions with price data).
Author is pressing long exposure in photonics and AI-adjacent infrastructure, with AAOI adds, COHR disclosed as the largest position, and a new high-conviction ERII long. Distinctive reads are small/mid-cap derivative plays: SKM as the Anthropic trade after SPCX, KRKNF as a high-quality small-cap defense name, and ERII as desalination plus AI water demand. No clear flip in the window; the notable late-week additions are ERII and KRKNF/defense while keeping a cautious tone on high-beta retail enthusiasm.
No clear flip appears in the window: the author stays risk-seeking in selected small/mid-cap longs while warning that high-beta retail excitement can reverse quickly. Conviction is most concentrated in photonics, with explicit AAOI adds and COHR as largest disclosed position, then shifts late-week toward new ERII conviction and a heavier KRKNF/defense rotation. Pump-risk is most relevant in SPCX-style private AI exposure and repeated niche small-cap theses where narrative velocity is high.
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | · | @michaelsikand | · | Urges market creators to reassure investors during sharp AI drawdown by restating thesis. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | LITE | @michaelsikand | +0.65 | Discloses photonics portfolio and reiterates unchanged thesis despite drawdown. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | CIEN | @michaelsikand | +0.45 | Discloses photonics portfolio and reiterates unchanged thesis despite drawdown. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | AAOI | @michaelsikand | +0.65 | Discloses photonics portfolio and reiterates unchanged thesis despite drawdown. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | COHR | @michaelsikand | +0.65 | Discloses photonics portfolio and reiterates unchanged thesis despite drawdown. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | KRKNF | @michaelsikand | +0.65 | Kraken closed C$615M Covelya acquisition and raised 2026 revenue/EBITDA guidance. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | NVDA | @michaelsikand | +0.80 | Calls Nvidia dirt cheap AI stock for 2026 with strong revenue, FCF and PEG metrics. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | AVAV | @michaelsikand | +0.75 | AVAV surged on $500M U.S. DoD contract after strong earnings and backlog growth. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @michaelsikand | · | Bullish defense of AI company founders against institutions, no specific ticker. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | NOK | @michaelsikand | +0.80 | Buying NOK under $13 feels like robbery. — Explicit buying statement and valuation model with price targets. | -6.5% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | SONY | @michaelsikand | +0.85 | Very bullish SONY thesis from GTA 6 digital sales, expected earnings beat and guidance revision. | +2.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | KTOS | @michaelsikand | +0.65 | Calls bottom on defense stocks, cites AVAV beat, AVEX order, budget growth and portfolio rebalance. | +11.0% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | KRKNF | @michaelsikand | +0.65 | Calls bottom on defense stocks, cites AVAV beat, AVEX order, budget growth and portfolio rebalance. | +0.0% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | AVEX | @michaelsikand | +0.75 | Calls bottom on defense stocks, cites AVAV beat, AVEX order, budget growth and portfolio rebalance. | -1.0% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | AVAV | @michaelsikand | +0.75 | Calls bottom on defense stocks, cites AVAV beat, AVEX order, budget growth and portfolio rebalance. | +15.6% | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.