Author

@modestproposal1 modestproposal1

Anonymous market-structure commentator quantifying semis-vs-software dispersion and AI-era regime shifts

Posts short, often quote-tweeted observations synthesizing o

trader score
+0.87
hit rate
71%
mean α
+1.02%
signals 14d
8

Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.

Their picks, scored

Across their last 7 scored bets: 71% hit rate, +1.02% mean alpha, trader score +0.87. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -0.3% since posting (mean over 3 mentions with price data).

Recent signals8receipts included
date (PT)tickerauthorsentwhat they saidsince thenreceipt
2026-08-28NVDA@modestproposal1+0.55Credits Nvidia with deliberately preserving fragmented cloud supply by constraining GPUs and backing CoreWeave.
2026-08-28CRWV@modestproposal1+0.20Credits Nvidia with deliberately preserving fragmented cloud supply by constraining GPUs and backing CoreWeave.
2026-08-28NVDA@modestproposal1+0.55Predicts Nvidia's strategy to preserve a fragmented market will become a future business-school case study.
2026-08-26·@modestproposal1·Mocks an explanation for why GDI trails GDP and questions the claimed measurement correction.·
2026-08-20DASH@modestproposal1+0.35Argues DASH's key opportunity is moving grocery usage from fill-in orders to weekly baskets.+6.5%
2026-08-20DASH@modestproposal1-0.10Cites third-party data showing CART grocery baskets are 2.5-2.7 times DASH's size.+6.5%
2026-08-20CART@modestproposal1+0.25Cites third-party data showing CART grocery baskets are 2.5-2.7 times DASH's size.-1.0%
2026-08-19·@modestproposal1·Develops a broad framework for AI capability, economics, financing and reflexive buildout risk.·

Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.