Author
@NitherDither NitherDither
grade Ax.com/NitherDither ↗
Forensic skeptic of Bitcoin-treasury-company financial engineering and NAV math
Dissects the capital structure and financing mechanics of Bi
trader score
-2.51
hit rate
30%
mean α
-1.36%
signals 14d
19
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 20 scored bets: 30% hit rate, -1.36% mean alpha, trader score -2.51. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -1.3% since posting (mean over 9 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | · | @NitherDither | · | Argues crude oil's upside tail is more likely than the bearish outcome priced by markets. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-22 | IBIT | @NitherDither | -0.70 | Expects Bitcoin to fall about 50% over eight to twelve weeks, with a defined technical invalidation. | +0.5% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-22 | BTC | @NitherDither | -0.80 | Expects Bitcoin to fall about 50% over eight to twelve weeks, with a defined technical invalidation. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-22 | MSTR | @NitherDither | -0.70 | Expects Bitcoin to fall about 50% over eight to twelve weeks, with a defined technical invalidation. | +6.8% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-22 | · | @NitherDither | · | Believes gold has bottomed, while allowing for consolidation or liquidation risk. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-22 | SPX | @NitherDither | -0.80 | Expects post-OpEx dealer dehedging to drive SPX toward 7300 and then 7000. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-21 | IBIT | @NitherDither | +0.20 | Notes stock-up volatility-up behavior and an elevated volatility smirk while warning about crowding | +0.5% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-20 | BTC | @NitherDither | -0.65 | Expect MSTR to fall to the 30-handle as Bitcoin declines. — Reiterates a bearish call that MSTR can fall 75% if Bitcoin drops 50%, targeting the 30-handle. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-20 | MSTR | @NitherDither | -0.90 | Expect MSTR to fall to the 30-handle as Bitcoin declines. — Reiterates a bearish call that MSTR can fall 75% if Bitcoin drops 50%, targeting the 30-handle. | +13.3% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-19 | SPCX | @NitherDither | -0.65 | Suggests starting to trade SPCX short again as shares unlock and RSI weakens. — A 319M-share lockup expiry and weakening RSI prompt a renewed bearish trade question. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-19 | BTC | @NitherDither | -0.85 | Forecasts Bitcoin near $35,000 in 8–12 weeks. — Explicitly forecasts a steep Bitcoin decline to about $35K over an 8–12 week horizon. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-19 | IBIT | @NitherDither | +0.35 | Reports strong call bidding, cheap puts and proximity to a negative-gamma strike. | +13.2% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-17 | MSTR | @NitherDither | +0.20 | Calls MSTR options cheap and expects puts to be monetized over coming months. | +30.3% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-17 | · | @NitherDither | · | Views solid breadth and simmering bond yields as a good setup for options-expiration week. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-16 | VIX | @NitherDither | +0.40 | Says Wednesday's VIX expiration should unpin volatility while VIX is near 14. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.