Author
@orrdavid orrdavid
grade Ax.com/orrdavid ↗
Named hedge-fund PM with a rigorous, transparent AI-disruption long/short framework
Posts long-form original theses and self-critical portfolio
trader score
+0.11
hit rate
56%
mean α
+0.07%
signals 14d
9
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 9 scored bets: 56% hit rate, +0.07% mean alpha, trader score +0.11. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +1.5% since posting (mean over 2 mentions with price data).
Recent signals9receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 | · | @orrdavid | · | Would choose long SpaceX because the risk is defined. — Explicitly chooses the long side of SpaceX despite believing long-term shorts may win. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-12 | · | @orrdavid | · | Observes extensive vacant retail space in Beverly Hills. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-12 | · | @orrdavid | · | Notes oil at $90 despite geopolitical disruption and argues the war outcome favored the US. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-11 | · | @orrdavid | · | Warns compute is becoming a boom-bust cycle while separating it from continued AI progress. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-08 | SPCX | @orrdavid | +0.60 | Argues Starship could cut launch costs 90% and make Starlink the world's lowest-cost internet provider. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-07 | LULU | @orrdavid | +0.00 | Ticker plus media indicates a current LULU market observation, but the stance requires the image. | +7.8% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-07 | PATK | @orrdavid | -0.70 | Explicitly declines to buy PATK's 50% decline and cites worse rates, housing and market conditions. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-05 | · | @orrdavid | · | Author uses Nagacorp's 43% gaming-revenue decline as evidence of severe Chinese weakness. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-04 | LULU | @orrdavid | -0.60 | Relays anecdotal consumer commentary that Lululemon has been cancelled and is finished. | +4.8% | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.