@orrdavid orrdavid
Named hedge-fund PM with a rigorous, transparent AI-disruption long/short framework
Posts long-form original theses and self-critical portfolio
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.
Across their last 20 scored bets: 60% hit rate, +0.40% mean alpha, trader score +1.00. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +1.2% since posting (mean over 14 mentions with price data).
Orrdavid is focused on portfolio discipline rather than fresh directional stock calls, reviewing Japanese longs and considering exits from mistaken positions. The only ticker-specific view is skeptical of long SPY / short ARKK alpha, framing it as path-dependent with a poor incentive structure. No clear late-week flip, intensification, or new trade setup is evidenced in this small window.
The author is not making explicit trade calls this week; the strongest signal is portfolio cleanup around Japanese longs and skepticism toward simplistic factor-spread alpha. There is no evidence of intensifying, fading, or flipping conviction, only a potential review of mistaken holdings. Ticker concentration is limited to SPY and ARKK, both tied to the same macro-framework critique.
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | · | @orrdavid | · | Argues valuation multiple expansion is a weak long-term return driver and lower multiples can win. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | · | @orrdavid | · | Claims funds often capture excess returns through fees rather than passing them to investors. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-29 | GOOG | @orrdavid | +0.10 | States Amazon and Google own a combined roughly one-third of Anthropic. | +1.4% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-29 | AMZN | @orrdavid | +0.10 | States Amazon and Google own a combined roughly one-third of Anthropic. | +1.1% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-28 | · | @orrdavid | · | Discusses Iran/Israel conflict timing and says it increasingly looks like a good outcome for the West. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-27 | · | @orrdavid | · | Criticizes Fairfax taking private an insolvent REIT, but gives no direct ticker. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-27 | · | @orrdavid | · | Skeptical that ship strike near Strait of Hormuz will lift oil; headlines may mean little. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-25 | · | @orrdavid | · | Generic claim AI will enable endless content creation soon. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-25 | BABA | @orrdavid | -0.35 | Sarcastically frames BABA as an example of a Chinese investment. | +1.1% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-24 | · | @orrdavid | · | AI self-improvement framed as frontier models designing in-house compute, but far off. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-24 | · | @orrdavid | · | Compares ChatGPT research performance across versions and says quality seems capped. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-24 | AMZN | @orrdavid | +0.35 | Argues hyperscalers can build useful AI products from customer workflow data. | +3.6% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-24 | GOOGL | @orrdavid | +0.45 | Argues hyperscalers can build useful AI products from customer workflow data. | +4.2% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-24 | MSFT | @orrdavid | +0.35 | Argues hyperscalers can build useful AI products from customer workflow data. | +6.8% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-23 | NVDA | @orrdavid | +0.35 | Frames AI stack as oligopoly compute suppliers selling to hyperscalers. | -2.6% | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.