Author
@orrdavid orrdavid
grade Ax.com/orrdavid ↗
Named hedge-fund PM with a rigorous, transparent AI-disruption long/short framework
Posts long-form original theses and self-critical portfolio
trader score
+0.01
hit rate
40%
mean α
+0.02%
signals 14d
16
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 5 scored bets: 40% hit rate, +0.02% mean alpha, trader score +0.01. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +3.1% since posting (mean over 3 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | NVDA | @orrdavid | -0.65 | Calls post-earnings semiconductor weakness a failure and predicts power bottlenecks will burst the hardware bubble. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | SOXX | @orrdavid | -0.55 | Calls post-earnings semiconductor weakness a failure and predicts power bottlenecks will burst the hardware bubble. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | · | @orrdavid | · | Presents revenue growth, scale and management bias for action as a long-term investment framework. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-23 | GME | @orrdavid | +0.00 | Uses hypothetical GME and AMC windfalls to question whether exceptional returns demonstrate skill. | -1.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-23 | AMC | @orrdavid | +0.00 | Uses hypothetical GME and AMC windfalls to question whether exceptional returns demonstrate skill. | +1.6% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-20 | · | @orrdavid | · | Author says the present homebuilder setup is worse than his prior bear case. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-20 | · | @orrdavid | · | Argues power scarcity favors profitable industrials as weaker peers sell energy-linked properties to data centers. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-19 | · | @orrdavid | · | Argues crowded use of similar complex risk models can make those models a net negative for investment firms. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-18 | · | @orrdavid | · | Discloses a long-held short and weighs covering against adding based on who is promoting it. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-18 | · | @orrdavid | · | Predicts a simple risk model will expose or eliminate highly levered professional firms. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-17 | VIX | @orrdavid | +0.40 | Warns complex risk models may justify excessive leverage and fail during a VIX spike. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-17 | · | @orrdavid | · | Reports balanced hedge-fund factor exposure across three uncorrelated managers. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-16 | ARKG | @orrdavid | +0.35 | Maintains a long-term thesis favoring AI-driven biotech and discloses MEDP as the concrete long expression. | +9.6% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-16 | MEDP | @orrdavid | +0.65 | Maintains a long-term thesis favoring AI-driven biotech and discloses MEDP as the concrete long expression. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-16 | · | @orrdavid | · | Describes a portfolio-sizing rule that increases allocation to repeatedly compelling high-multiple stocks. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.