Author
@p_ferragu p_ferragu
grade Ax.com/p_ferragu ↗
First-principles AI-compute and infrastructure analyst who quantifies who owns the physical stack
Writes original, math-grounded theses tying AI/space/auto th
trader score
-0.57
hit rate
30%
mean α
-0.44%
signals 14d
8
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 10 scored bets: 30% hit rate, -0.44% mean alpha, trader score -0.57. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +1.2% since posting (mean over 6 mentions with price data).
Recent signals8receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | TSLA | @p_ferragu | +0.00 | Challenges an unspecified claim about Tesla without enough thread context to establish direction. | -1.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | · | @p_ferragu | · | Claims improved AI interpretation of camera data is eliminating vision misperception risk. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | TSLA | @p_ferragu | +0.25 | Reports personally observing Tesla Cybercab testing in Manhattan with an operator present. | -1.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | NVDA | @p_ferragu | +0.85 | Argues Nvidia is exceptionally cheap relative to projected growth and earnings. | +3.8% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | NVDA | @p_ferragu | +0.70 | Sees Nvidia pricing power and sharply underestimated 2027 memory revenue expectations. | +3.8% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | MU | @p_ferragu | +0.85 | Sees Nvidia pricing power and sharply underestimated 2027 memory revenue expectations. | -0.6% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-22 | ASML | @p_ferragu | -0.50 | Argues U.S.-made components give the U.S. power to shut down ASML. | -3.8% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-22 | · | @p_ferragu | · | Predicts space solar will reach terawatt scale before fusion achieves a net gigawatt. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.