@Pablo01618 Pablo01618
Thesis-obsessed semis/AI-infra bull who builds contrarian INTC and physical-AI frameworks early
Writes original, multi-factor secular theses on the semicond
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.
Across their last 20 scored bets: 50% hit rate, -2.20% mean alpha, trader score -1.53. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -0.8% since posting (mean over 133 mentions with price data).
Author is mainly long physical AI, Intel, IBM, Oracle, Tesla, and selected energy/solar and autonomy names through short-dated calls and add calls. Distinctive read is that cheap money, sovereign AI, grid strain, and legacy deep-IP companies will drive a rerating, with Microsoft framed as the compliance loser versus Oracle. Late-week activity concentrated in adding IBM, staying long INTC and MBLY, and pushing ENPH as a blackout/grid beneficiary.
Conviction is concentrated in INTC, IBM, ORCL, SPCX, TSLA calls, ENPH, and MBLY, with repeated add signals in IBM and disclosed long exposure in INTC and MBLY. The strongest bearish stance is MSFT government-cloud compliance, framed as an Oracle tailwind rather than a standalone market short. Pump-risk is highest in INTC and IBM because those two names dominate their themes and are repeatedly tied to author-owned or add-style disclosures.
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | · | @Pablo01618 | · | Argues massive compute construction contradicts excess compute narrative. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @Pablo01618 | · | Energy crisis thesis says data centers moving to backup power supports solar bandwagon. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | INTC | @Pablo01618 | +0.35 | Calls INTC the logical government-aligned capacity choice. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | DAVE | @Pablo01618 | +0.25 | Discloses holding DAVE bags from sub-$100. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | DAVE | @Pablo01618 | +0.60 | Recaps DAVE move from 5 to 387 and nearly 2x since recent writing. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @Pablo01618 | · | Macro pattern observation on yields, dollar, bonds and betas repeating from 10 days ago. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | INTC | @Pablo01618 | +0.40 | Says analysts and banks now have 200 targets and upgrades on INTC. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @Pablo01618 | · | Recaps short oil as free money and discusses options timing around earnings. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | AEVA | @Pablo01618 | +0.45 | Discloses holding around a 20k long-term AEVA bag while trading it. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | IBM | @Pablo01618 | +0.70 | States IBM will go to 400, a clear bullish price view. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | INTC | @Pablo01618 | +0.35 | Notes reversal off 125 range and 140 in 7 days for INTC. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | LMND | @Pablo01618 | +0.45 | Recaps playing LMND chart from local bottom. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | PLTR | @Pablo01618 | +0.20 | Brief PLTR comment points to linked context but lacks standalone detail. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @Pablo01618 | · | Bets people will talk about recession within the next eight weeks. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @Pablo01618 | · | Reports Non Farm +57k versus +170k anticipated, implying weaker labor print and rate-cut tilt. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.