Author
@PassionAndLuck PassionAndLuck
grade Ax.com/PassionAndLuck ↗
Japanese retail trader with deep, transparent SATS/SPCX arbitrage and memory-cycle theses
Posts mostly Japanese-language, conversation-heavy analysis
trader score
-1.07
hit rate
20%
mean α
-2.10%
signals 14d
15
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 5 scored bets: 20% hit rate, -2.10% mean alpha, trader score -1.07. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -4.9% since posting (mean over 3 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | MU | @PassionAndLuck | +0.45 | Says MU appears to have bottomed. | -5.8% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | ORCL | @PassionAndLuck | +0.05 | Notes surprise that ORCL is trading positive. | -6.2% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | SPCX | @PassionAndLuck | -0.55 | Contrasts financially strong MSFT with fragile SPCX and discloses holding the latter through losses. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | MSFT | @PassionAndLuck | +0.45 | Contrasts financially strong MSFT with fragile SPCX and discloses holding the latter through losses. | -2.8% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @PassionAndLuck | · | Reactively describes a market crash in attached media. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @PassionAndLuck | · | Predicts high-profile AI stocks may undercut their July lows. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-12 | · | @PassionAndLuck | · | Buy hyperscalers as the safest play in this market. — Explicitly recommends buying hyperscalers as the straightforward market trade. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-08 | · | @PassionAndLuck | · | Author observes that market commentary has shifted from bullish promotion toward bearish views | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-06 | · | @PassionAndLuck | · | Points to a chart of Echo's NAV-discount trend without an unambiguous ticker. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-05 | · | @PassionAndLuck | · | Argues financial repression is politically difficult in aging economies, especially Japan. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-04 | · | @PassionAndLuck | · | Argues monetary policy can create correlation while different asset classes retain distinct mechanisms. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-03 | · | @PassionAndLuck | · | Warns against promoting leveraged real-estate purchases contrary to theory and data. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-03 | ECHO | @PassionAndLuck | +0.10 | Plans to take profit in ECHO and then shift to index investing. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-03 | · | @PassionAndLuck | · | Calls the September 29 census result mildly positive for central-city real estate. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-03 | ECHO | @PassionAndLuck | +0.65 | Says ECHO bottomed in late July and the author will simply continue holding. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.