Author
@PassionAndLuck PassionAndLuck
grade Ax.com/PassionAndLuck ↗
Japanese retail trader with deep, transparent SATS/SPCX arbitrage and memory-cycle theses
Posts mostly Japanese-language, conversation-heavy analysis
trader score
-1.55
hit rate
40%
mean α
-1.41%
signals 14d
38
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 20 scored bets: 40% hit rate, -1.41% mean alpha, trader score -1.55. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +7.5% since posting (mean over 1 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | · | @PassionAndLuck | · | Questions why Trump chose Warsh given their differing policy direction. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | IREN | @PassionAndLuck | +0.40 | Suggests overnight IREN buyers may be set for a major win. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @PassionAndLuck | · | Homeowners planning to move should realize gains quickly, especially in 1LDK units. — Urges property owners planning to move to sell and realize gains because 1LDK exit liquidity is narrowing. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | SPCX | @PassionAndLuck | +0.20 | Frames ECHO buybacks and SPCX growth as key variables for price and the next 13D/A. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | ECHO | @PassionAndLuck | +0.25 | Frames ECHO buybacks and SPCX growth as key variables for price and the next 13D/A. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | ECHO | @PassionAndLuck | +0.45 | Quantifies rising short interest and falling liquidity, arguing the setup could tighten on buybacks. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | · | @PassionAndLuck | · | Argues most property investors can exit safely while criticizing those still promoting purchases after 2025. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | · | @PassionAndLuck | · | Explains why higher taxes on short-term property sales may have limited impact on genuine long-term homebuyers. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | ECHO | @PassionAndLuck | +0.00 | Clarifies that a Form 144 share count is stale and says a 13D/A is needed. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | · | @PassionAndLuck | · | Says the slogan of going long national-policy beneficiaries has become obsolete. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | · | @PassionAndLuck | · | Says short-term traders have already exited, without identifying an asset. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-24 | · | @PassionAndLuck | · | States that a Nikkei Average crash is unavoidable. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-24 | BTC | @PassionAndLuck | +0.05 | Concludes an unnamed Bitcoin-linked stock looks fairly valued after comparing debt and BTC assets. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-24 | SPCX | @PassionAndLuck | +0.70 | Argues lockup-driven float expansion could create passive index buying in September. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-24 | · | @PassionAndLuck | · | Argues suburban housing demand will soften due to demographic constraints. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.