@PassionAndLuck PassionAndLuck
Japanese retail trader with deep, transparent SATS/SPCX arbitrage and memory-cycle theses
Posts mostly Japanese-language, conversation-heavy analysis
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.
Across their last 20 scored bets: 60% hit rate, -0.36% mean alpha, trader score -0.25. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -4.9% since posting (mean over 35 mentions with price data).
PassionAndLuck is overwhelmingly focused on a SATS/SPCX arbitrage, repeatedly favoring long SATS against short SPCX based on NAV math, closing timing, and spread comparisons. The distinctive read is that SATS trades too cheap versus implied SPCX value, with closing mechanics, supply, lockup, and buyback authorization shaping the setup. No clear flip appears; disclosures indicate he is still holding SATS and says he will communicate before closing the position.
The week is dominated by a consistent long SATS versus short SPCX arbitrage thesis, supported by repeated NAV-spread checks and closing-risk framework posts. There is no clear flip or fading signal; the only position-disclosure action is held SATS, including a statement that he will communicate before closing rather than silently taking profit. Concentration is high around SATS/SPCX, so the brief should be treated as a single-event arbitrage view rather than broad market coverage.
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | CRWV | @PassionAndLuck | -0.45 | Japanese comment says CRWV should crash the most, but its decline is mild. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | MU | @PassionAndLuck | +0.00 | Japanese comment says MU is at a critical point, without a clear direction. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @PassionAndLuck | · | Says high-PER growth stocks with leverage will naturally have high volatility. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | IREN | @PassionAndLuck | +0.25 | Says IREN is testing a firm horizontal line and should stop around here. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @PassionAndLuck | · | Says only undervalued stocks won this week. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | MARA | @PassionAndLuck | +0.00 | Japanese quote mocks IREN holders from a MARA holder perspective. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | IREN | @PassionAndLuck | -0.15 | Japanese quote mocks IREN holders from a MARA holder perspective. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @PassionAndLuck | · | Says KOSPI may circuit-break higher tomorrow. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | ECHO | @PassionAndLuck | -0.35 | Criticizes DOJ process around ECHO public comments as archaic. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | · | @PassionAndLuck | · | may retire and sell puts on cheap stocks in 2026 — Mentions possibly becoming someone who sells puts on undervalued stocks in 2026, without tickers. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | · | @PassionAndLuck | · | Says ECHO remaining spectrum is worth at least $10B, but ticker is not explicitly cashtagged in this tweet. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | ECHO | @PassionAndLuck | +0.70 | Argues ECHO trades at half NAV and AT&T transaction cash may fund buybacks. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | ECHO | @PassionAndLuck | +0.55 | Says Ergen has strong economic incentive to buy back ECHO shares. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | ECHO | @PassionAndLuck | +0.50 | States the FCC has given final approval for ECHO-related matter. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-29 | ECHO | @PassionAndLuck | +0.25 | Says to read the RSA for ECHO, but gives little standalone stance. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.