Author · brief 2026-06-22

@Paul_Schatz Paul_Schatz

Transparent named PM trading ETFs by model and breadth internals

A named portfolio manager who runs a tactical, model-driven

trader score
+1.37
hit rate
55%
mean α
+0.58%
signals 14d
65

Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.

Their picks, scored

Across their last 20 scored bets: 55% hit rate, +0.58% mean alpha, trader score +1.37. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +2.8% since posting (mean over 16 mentions with price data).

Rotating from retail into growth while mocking SPCX

Paul Schatz spent the window cutting retail and select legacy exposures while adding back into growth, leveraged Nasdaq, software, and cyber ETFs. His distinctive read is macro-bullish: inflation is peaking, doom warnings are overdone, and equities have more upside, though he remains critical of BTC’s risk underperformance and SPCX weakness. The clearest late-week shift was from selling some growth/tech ETFs to buying more MQQQ/QLD and adding IGV, FDN, MDB, MANH, and BUG.

Themes5analyst read · 2026-06-22
Retail and consumer exposure reductions
bearintensifying8 signals
TGTDGXRTRYPMXSHW
Growth and Nasdaq beta rotation
mixedintensifying12 signals
Macro inflation peak and equity resilience
bullconsistent2 signals
⚠ 100% of theme signals are BTC — flag pump risk
Software and cybersecurity adds
bullNEW7 signals
SPCX weakness and chatter skepticism
bearconsistent2 signals
⚠ 100% of theme signals are SPCX — flag pump risk
Direction this week

The week shows a clear rotation: early sales in TGT, DG, XRT, RYPMX, SHW, IVW, QLD, and MQQQ gave way to later adds in MQQQ, QLD, IGV, BUG, MANH, FDN, and MDB. Conviction flipped back toward growth and Nasdaq beta by June 17-18, while retail and some fund exposures stayed under pressure. Concentration is not in one single long book name, but SPCX is a concentrated bearish commentary pocket with 100% of that theme’s signals tied to SPCX.

Position disclosures5skin in the game
TGT Sold TGT as part of broader retail and fund exposure reduction. exited
IWF Bought IWF while selling several other holdings. added
QLD Bought more QLD after an earlier disclosure included selling some QLD. added
MQQQ Bought more MQQQ after an earlier disclosure included selling some MQQQ. added
IGV Bought IGV as part of a later software and cyber growth add list. added
Best hypotheses2their highest-scoring claims in our index
Apple's rally has pushed valuation ahead of fundamentals, leaving limited margin of safety after multiple expansion.
bearHIGH6 co-supporters
Traders should trim or wait rather than chase GDX while gold remains below resistance and near decision levels.
neutralMEDIUM2 co-supporters
Recent signals15receipts included
date (PT)tickerauthorsentwhat they saidsince thenreceipt
2026-07-02QLD@Paul_Schatz+0.50Bought EMB GDX SSO more MQQQ IYR QLD; sold FSEP. — Author reports active buys/adds and one sale; max ticker cap keeps first six.
2026-07-02EMB@Paul_Schatz+0.50Bought EMB GDX SSO more MQQQ IYR QLD; sold FSEP. — Author reports active buys/adds and one sale; max ticker cap keeps first six.·
2026-07-02GDX@Paul_Schatz+0.50Bought EMB GDX SSO more MQQQ IYR QLD; sold FSEP. — Author reports active buys/adds and one sale; max ticker cap keeps first six.
2026-07-02SSO@Paul_Schatz+0.50Bought EMB GDX SSO more MQQQ IYR QLD; sold FSEP. — Author reports active buys/adds and one sale; max ticker cap keeps first six.
2026-07-02MQQQ@Paul_Schatz+0.50Bought EMB GDX SSO more MQQQ IYR QLD; sold FSEP. — Author reports active buys/adds and one sale; max ticker cap keeps first six.·
2026-07-02IYR@Paul_Schatz+0.50Bought EMB GDX SSO more MQQQ IYR QLD; sold FSEP. — Author reports active buys/adds and one sale; max ticker cap keeps first six.·
2026-07-02BMNR@Paul_Schatz-0.80Calls BMNR garbage that decimated everyone.
2026-07-01·@Paul_Schatz·Mentions purchase price, high and current price but no ticker named in standalone text.·
2026-07-01PCY@Paul_Schatz-0.35Bought AGG and sold multiple holdings. — Explicit disclosure of buys and sells in a portfolio rebalance.·
2026-07-01GDXJ@Paul_Schatz-0.35Bought AGG and sold multiple holdings. — Explicit disclosure of buys and sells in a portfolio rebalance.+5.0%
2026-07-01EMB@Paul_Schatz-0.35Bought AGG and sold multiple holdings. — Explicit disclosure of buys and sells in a portfolio rebalance.·
2026-07-01AGG@Paul_Schatz+0.45Bought AGG and sold multiple holdings. — Explicit disclosure of buys and sells in a portfolio rebalance.+0.1%
2026-07-01QMAG@Paul_Schatz-0.35Bought AGG and sold multiple holdings. — Explicit disclosure of buys and sells in a portfolio rebalance.·
2026-07-01SIXF@Paul_Schatz-0.35Bought AGG and sold multiple holdings. — Explicit disclosure of buys and sells in a portfolio rebalance.·
2026-07-01·@Paul_Schatz·Says Dan Ives leaving to go all in on AI is important for sentiment.·

Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.