@pennycheck pennycheck
Deep small-cap AI-infrastructure supply-chain digger with conviction longs and active shorts
Bottom-up fundamental and supply-chain research on obscure A
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.
Across their last 20 scored bets: 20% hit rate, -2.48% mean alpha, trader score -2.40. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -0.7% since posting (mean over 47 mentions with price data).
pennycheck is concentrated in bullish World Cup-linked demand through SRAD and ABNB, with SRAD the clearest repeated call. The distinctive read is that betting volume, prediction-market interest, and US team performance can feed SRAD acquisition, while SHMD may be nearing an operational inflection. He is broadly pro-US equities and AI/AGI, but more skeptical on crowded momentum names and inconsistent AXTI logic.
The author is concentrated in bullish SRAD and ABNB World Cup demand, bullish SHMD operational inflection, and broad pro-US-equity commentary. Bearish or skeptical comments are mostly about crowded momentum risk, PENG no longer being early, and AXTI logic around China InP exports. No CALL_DIRECTIONAL or POSITION_DISCLOSURE signals were provided, so adds, trims, exits, and explicit position changes are not evidenced in this payload.
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | · | @pennycheck | · | Added some roper; still small position — Author added Roper and lays out AI/data acquisition thesis, but ticker is not explicit. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | INDI | @pennycheck | +0.45 | Says INDI has a compelling market narrative. | -4.6% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | · | @pennycheck | · | Discloses existing January 2027 $5 call options without ticker. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | · | @pennycheck | · | Says Unitree sourcing from indi is impactful, but no clear public ticker reference. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | · | @pennycheck | · | Says indi is now at 4, but ticker is ambiguous. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | KTOS | @pennycheck | +0.20 | LASR and AMPX should catch a bid today from AVAV read-through — Calls direct supplier read-through from AVAV quarter to LASR and AMPX. | +11.0% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | ONDS | @pennycheck | +0.20 | LASR and AMPX should catch a bid today from AVAV read-through — Calls direct supplier read-through from AVAV quarter to LASR and AMPX. | -10.1% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | AMPX | @pennycheck | +0.65 | LASR and AMPX should catch a bid today from AVAV read-through — Calls direct supplier read-through from AVAV quarter to LASR and AMPX. | -10.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | LASR | @pennycheck | +0.65 | LASR and AMPX should catch a bid today from AVAV read-through — Calls direct supplier read-through from AVAV quarter to LASR and AMPX. | -9.1% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | AVAV | @pennycheck | +0.35 | LASR and AMPX should catch a bid today from AVAV read-through — Calls direct supplier read-through from AVAV quarter to LASR and AMPX. | +15.6% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-29 | POET | @pennycheck | -0.35 | Mocks people making up likely supply chain mapping with POET and Sivers. | -11.1% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-29 | SIVR | @pennycheck | -0.35 | Mocks people making up likely supply chain mapping with POET and Sivers. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-29 | AMZN | @pennycheck | +0.05 | Discusses humanoid pure-play Agility and backers, skeptical of Figure and Archer-like hype. | +1.1% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-29 | AMZN | @pennycheck | +0.15 | Says Agility Digit has been deployed by Amazon and scaling in EU, more signal than marketing. | +1.1% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-29 | BOTZ | @pennycheck | -0.35 | Criticizes Figure/BOT ETF hype and says Amazon is scaling Agility Digit. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.