Author
@PolycarpFX PolycarpFX
grade Bx.com/PolycarpFX ↗
Seasonality-and-intermarket chartist using Korea as a tech-top tell
Publishes chart-driven, base-rate and seasonality frameworks
trader score
+0.16
hit rate
45%
mean α
+0.05%
signals 14d
138
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 20 scored bets: 45% hit rate, +0.05% mean alpha, trader score +0.16. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -0.3% since posting (mean over 95 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | SMH | @PolycarpFX | +0.45 | Semiconductors are entering their strongest seasonal window, historically higher in 19 of 25 years. | -5.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | INTC | @PolycarpFX | +0.00 | Tweet points to a technical roadmap chart for Intel without a written directional conclusion. | -8.8% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | HYG | @PolycarpFX | +0.00 | SPYV recorded its largest print ever, while HYG and EWY also showed numerous large prints. | -0.1% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | EWY | @PolycarpFX | +0.00 | SPYV recorded its largest print ever, while HYG and EWY also showed numerous large prints. | -3.2% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | SPYV | @PolycarpFX | +0.00 | SPYV recorded its largest print ever, while HYG and EWY also showed numerous large prints. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | MDT | @PolycarpFX | +0.00 | Nearly $20 billion in QQQ dark-pool flow was reported, alongside Medtronic's largest print ever. | -0.0% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | QQQ | @PolycarpFX | +0.00 | Nearly $20 billion in QQQ dark-pool flow was reported, alongside Medtronic's largest print ever. | -3.2% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | TLT | @PolycarpFX | +0.35 | Flexed-arm emoji expresses a positive stance toward TLT. | +1.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | SPX | @PolycarpFX | +0.65 | Scales into SPX calls when the overnight signal triggers, usually a few days out. — Author explicitly describes scaling into SPX calls when a defined overnight signal triggers. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @PolycarpFX | · | Author received an ES futures-tool alert and is waiting to see how the setup performs. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | VIX | @PolycarpFX | +0.15 | Author says a cited chart made current volatility unsurprising but leaves the next move unresolved. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @PolycarpFX | · | Frames defensives as a 6–18 month valuation and drawdown hedge rather than a seasonal rotation. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | SPY | @PolycarpFX | -0.20 | Compares the backdrop with 2018 and 2022 while noting poor near-term seasonality for defensives. | -1.3% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @PolycarpFX | · | Historical corrections show defensives beat technology in eight of nine cases by 19 points on average. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | XLK | @PolycarpFX | -0.40 | Calls for a 6–18 month defensive-over-tech window while rejecting a permanent regime change. | -3.8% | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.