Author · brief 2026-06-22

@pradeeepk pradeeepk

Bottom-up SaaS and AI-infra fundamentalist running alt-data-driven long/short theses

Posts original, KPI- and alt-data-grounded fundamental these

trader score
-0.99
hit rate
50%
mean α
-0.36%
signals 14d
35

Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.

Their picks, scored

Across their last 20 scored bets: 50% hit rate, -0.36% mean alpha, trader score -0.99. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +4.4% since posting (mean over 26 mentions with price data).

Bullish software valuation calls with NFLX add disclosed

Author is mainly leaning long software and select media/gaming names, with ADSK the clearest repeated valuation call and NFLX the only explicit add. Distinctive reads center on ADSK deserving a higher multiple, BKNG catching up to ABNB after geopolitical risk clears, and TTWO demand data around GTA6. No clear flip or fade is evident; the only explicit trade action was adding NFLX mid-window.

Themes3analyst read · 2026-06-22
Software valuation and AI cost leverage
bullNEW6 signals
⚠ 67% of theme signals are ADSK — flag pump risk
Travel valuation catch-up after geopolitical risk
bullconsistent3 signals
⚠ 67% of theme signals are BKNG — flag pump risk
Media and gaming catalysts versus deal risk
mixedintensifying8 signals
⚠ 50% of theme signals are TTWO — flag pump risk
Direction this week

Conviction is concentrated in bullish software valuation calls, especially ADSK, alongside TTWO demand catalysts and a disclosed NFLX add. There is no clear evidence of a flip or fade in the provided window; the only explicit action was adding NFLX on 2026-06-17. ADSK and TTWO are the main concentration flags, while LION is the only clearly bearish readthrough from the Netflix no-interest clarification.

Best hypotheses2their highest-scoring claims in our index
Google TPU roadmap changes could reduce Broadcom content, with TPUv9 or training designs moving away from AVGO.
bearHIGH4 co-supporters
Cisco's AI networking competitiveness is improving through Silicon One, Nvidia alignment, and pressure on rival ecosyste
bullHIGH3 co-supporters
Recent signals15receipts included
date (PT)tickerauthorsentwhat they saidsince thenreceipt
2026-07-02AMD@pradeeepk-0.40Says MediaTek will eat NVDA, AVGO and AMD margins.
2026-07-02NVDA@pradeeepk-0.40Says MediaTek will eat NVDA, AVGO and AMD margins.
2026-07-02AVGO@pradeeepk-0.40Says MediaTek will eat NVDA, AVGO and AMD margins.
2026-07-02AMD@pradeeepk-0.25Says it is raining ASICs, implying competitive pressure on GPU names.
2026-07-02NVDA@pradeeepk-0.25Says it is raining ASICs, implying competitive pressure on GPU names.
2026-07-01META@pradeeepk+0.00Says Mediatek is taking AVGO customers, after GOOGL now META.-4.9%
2026-07-01AVGO@pradeeepk-0.45Says Mediatek is taking AVGO customers, after GOOGL now META.-2.4%
2026-07-01GOOGL@pradeeepk+0.00Says Mediatek is taking AVGO customers, after GOOGL now META.-0.4%
2026-06-30·@pradeeepk·Says software optimisations are a risk to semis.·
2026-06-30·@pradeeepk·Says software optimisation is risk to semis.·
2026-06-30·@pradeeepk·Says software optimisation is a risk to semis.·
2026-06-30NVDA@pradeeepk+0.40Brief bullish NVDA alpha mention.-2.6%
2026-06-29NVDA@pradeeepk+0.50SemiAnalysis says NVDA 2H estimates are too low.-0.1%
2026-06-28NFLX@pradeeepk+0.30NFLX churn reportedly remained stable after 2026 price hike.+5.2%
2026-06-28NFLX@pradeeepk+0.30Morgan Stanley media survey says NFLX engagement is on top.+5.2%

Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.