@quantian1 quantian1
Numerate anon skeptic dissecting AI-bubble valuations with base-rate and SOTP math
Posts original valuation and quant base-rate analysis (often
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.
Across their last 15 scored bets: 60% hit rate, +0.31% mean alpha, trader score +0.34. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +9.5% since posting (mean over 7 mentions with price data).
The author is mainly circling biotech and AI drug development, with a disclosed favorable tilt toward Moderna bags despite acknowledging biotech pain and policy risk. Their distinctive read is two-sided: AI drug-development hype could become the next upward leg, but current AI tools have not yet materially improved development. Outside biotech, they flagged caution around QQQ context and STRC trading below par, without enough evidence of a directional trade.
No explicit add, trim, exit, or position-size change appears in the input, and there is not enough evidence to call conviction intensifying, fading, or flipping. The window is concentrated in late-week biotech and AI drug-development commentary, with a favorable Moderna-bag tilt offset by skepticism that AI tools have improved actual drug development. Market caution appears in QQQ and STRC, but neither is framed as a trade.
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | · | @quantian1 | · | Mentions GTA VI release coming soon without naming public ticker. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-29 | ORCL | @quantian1 | +0.00 | Asks whether Oracle weight is 15%, no stance. | -5.1% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-26 | CRWV | @quantian1 | -0.65 | Claims insiders are dumping eight figures of CRWV stock with no insider buys since IPO. | -15.4% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-25 | · | @quantian1 | · | Sarcastically mocks read-through trading from earnings statements. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-25 | MU | @quantian1 | -0.20 | Mocks argument that MU raised estimates disproves peak AI capex. | -19.6% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-24 | AVGO | @quantian1 | +0.00 | Jokes about second AI chip version naming after recent chip announcement. | -5.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-24 | MU | @quantian1 | -0.15 | Hyperbolic joke that MU must guide up massively or South Korea collapses. | -7.0% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-24 | MSTX | @quantian1 | -0.75 | MSTX down 99% since WSJ article about full-porting $400k into it. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-24 | · | @quantian1 | · | Short more shitcos — Explicitly says it is a beautiful day to short more low-quality companies, but no ticker. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-22 | SPCX | @quantian1 | -0.45 | Options math implies 10% chance of $20T and 90% chance of bankruptcy for SPCX. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-22 | SPCX | @quantian1 | -0.60 | Calculates SPCX median option-implied outcomes of -15% by 2026, -40% by 2028, -80% by 2035. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-22 | · | @quantian1 | · | Full port short permitted? — Asks if full-port short is permitted, but ticker context is absent. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-21 | · | @quantian1 | · | Frames market as torn between semiconductor bulls and oil shock bears amid geopolitical conflict. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-20 | · | @quantian1 | · | Biotech/pharma thesis on revisiting injectable compounds and running trials. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-20 | · | @quantian1 | · | Skeptical that AI tools have materially improved drug development. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.