Author
@quantian1 quantian1
grade Ax.com/quantian1 ↗
Numerate anon skeptic dissecting AI-bubble valuations with base-rate and SOTP math
Posts original valuation and quant base-rate analysis (often
trader score
-0.60
hit rate
57%
mean α
-1.60%
signals 14d
18
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 7 scored bets: 57% hit rate, -1.60% mean alpha, trader score -0.60. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -1.2% since posting (mean over 7 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | TSM | @quantian1 | +0.85 | Explicitly claims TSMC still has 1,000% upside, using its market cap versus Taiwan GDP as comparison. | -0.0% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | NVDA | @quantian1 | +0.00 | Questions what NVIDIA's market-level forward multiple means amid divergent AI-infrastructure duration assumptions. | +3.8% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | NVDA | @quantian1 | +0.00 | Says NVIDIA may be either extremely undervalued or overvalued, leaving the direction explicitly unresolved. | +3.8% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | · | @quantian1 | · | Says the statistical discrepancy is historically low and most recently changed sign in 2022. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | · | @quantian1 | · | Explains that national-accounting measures currently differ by about 1% because of measurement subtleties. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | NVDA | @quantian1 | +0.00 | Explains why foreign-produced Nvidia chips affect U.S. national income but not domestic production. | +3.8% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | · | @quantian1 | · | States that GNI is persistently lower than GDP. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | · | @quantian1 | · | Explains why GDP is preferred to GDI or GNI based on release speed and revision frequency. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | NVDA | @quantian1 | +0.00 | Argues common GDP critiques confuse domestic production with GNI, which includes Nvidia corporate profits. | +3.8% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-22 | ACN | @quantian1 | -0.60 | Criticizes paying Accenture for costly consulting work that risks exposing secrets and producing low-quality analysis. | +2.3% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-22 | · | @quantian1 | · | Argues frontier AI models should be priced according to the expected value of preventing costly production bugs. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-22 | · | @quantian1 | · | Argues premium frontier AI models behave like Veblen goods and should capture value created rather than charge per token. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-22 | · | @quantian1 | · | Predicts commodity enterprise tasks will use current open-source models on premises rather than premium frontier models. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-21 | · | @quantian1 | · | Criticizes an unnamed all-stock merger's VWAP formula and adverse hedge behavior. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-21 | · | @quantian1 | · | Criticizes Australian merger schemes as structurally misaligned with shareholders. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.