Author
@quantian1 quantian1
grade Ax.com/quantian1 ↗
Numerate anon skeptic dissecting AI-bubble valuations with base-rate and SOTP math
Posts original valuation and quant base-rate analysis (often
trader score
+0.63
hit rate
67%
mean α
+2.45%
signals 14d
9
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 6 scored bets: 67% hit rate, +2.45% mean alpha, trader score +0.63. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +2.8% since posting (mean over 4 mentions with price data).
Recent signals9receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 | CRWV | @quantian1 | +0.35 | Argues CoreWeave 2031 debt should not trade wider than a peer because it has assets and EBITDA. | -17.6% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | NVDA | @quantian1 | +0.00 | Dismisses an unspecified technology as easily reproducible on an RTX 4090. | -7.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | · | @quantian1 | · | Mocks failed attempts to support memory stocks after another 6% decline. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-12 | OKLO | @quantian1 | -0.65 | Calls Oklo weak while citing roughly $5 billion of at-the-market financing as evidence of retail capital access. | -18.2% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-12 | OKLO | @quantian1 | -0.70 | Derides the referenced nuclear startup by comparing it unfavorably with already-criticized Oklo. | -18.2% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-11 | · | @quantian1 | · | Argues fragmented industries require profitable or unusually loyal customers, using airlines as the cautionary example. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-11 | · | @quantian1 | · | Criticizes replacing an oligopoly with leveraged competitors while end-market pricing collapses. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-10 | · | @quantian1 | · | Relays unverified whispers that roughly 40% of investment pods may be fired for underperformance this year. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-05 | · | @quantian1 | · | Argues AI agents mainly suit low-stakes menial work and mocks venture-capital enthusiasm. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.