Author
@rcwhalen rcwhalen
grade Ax.com/rcwhalen ↗
Veteran banking-and-mortgage-finance analyst dissecting credit plumbing, Fed mechanics, and metals barbell
Provides institutional-grade structural analysis of banks, m
trader score
-2.50
hit rate
15%
mean α
-2.11%
signals 14d
70
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 20 scored bets: 15% hit rate, -2.11% mean alpha, trader score -2.50. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +2.2% since posting (mean over 9 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | · | @rcwhalen | · | States average mortgage-servicing-right value and proposes a fair-value-to-UPB sanity check. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @rcwhalen | · | Reports changes in bank residential-loan portfolios and sales that imply lower mortgage-servicing-right values. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | PYPL | @rcwhalen | -0.45 | Reports that an Advent and Stripe consortium abandoned its pursuit of PayPal. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @rcwhalen | · | Warns that growth in DSCR lending is creating an opening for mortgage fraud. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @rcwhalen | · | Flags mortgage-sector topics including GSE repurchase claims and DSCR fraud. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | · | @rcwhalen | · | Warns that war-driven inflation and a 6%-of-GDP deficit would require recessionary offset. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | · | @rcwhalen | · | Argues Treasury bond purchases and Fed collateral sales net to zero market impact. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | · | @rcwhalen | · | Forecasts falling property prices next year will expose extensive investment-property loan fraud. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | · | @rcwhalen | · | Reports Q2 bank HELOC loan growth while utilization remains below 50%. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | · | @rcwhalen | · | Interprets rising gold as evidence of a falling dollar. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | UWMC | @rcwhalen | -0.55 | Warns that banks are returning aggressively to mortgages at thin margins, pressuring nonbank lenders. | +2.1% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | BTTR | @rcwhalen | -0.20 | Reports an escalating board fight seeking to prevent Vishal Garg's return. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | · | @rcwhalen | · | Reports that Better's board seeks to block Vishal Garg's return. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | · | @rcwhalen | · | Explains why TGA-funded Treasury buybacks may not reduce the public's bill-purchase burden. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | · | @rcwhalen | · | Criticizes bipartisan fiscal expansion and the normalization of trillion-dollar debt. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.