Author
@rcwhalen rcwhalen
grade Ax.com/rcwhalen ↗
Veteran banking-and-mortgage-finance analyst dissecting credit plumbing, Fed mechanics, and metals barbell
Provides institutional-grade structural analysis of banks, m
trader score
+0.47
hit rate
60%
mean α
+0.16%
signals 14d
116
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 20 scored bets: 60% hit rate, +0.16% mean alpha, trader score +0.47. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -1.1% since posting (mean over 29 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | · | @rcwhalen | · | Shares an FT report linking a data-center IPO failure to a wider market selloff. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | · | @rcwhalen | · | Characterizes AI as a sinking bubble accompanied by falling Treasury yields. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | · | @rcwhalen | · | Relays an FT report that investors are selling data-center bonds as AI borrowers face stress. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | · | @rcwhalen | · | Reports an appeals-court ruling favoring Ginnie Mae in a reverse-mortgage dispute. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | · | @rcwhalen | · | Summarizes rising inflation and falling home prices with an added bearish political fundraising claim. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @rcwhalen | · | Reports 6.3% wholesale inflation, a 20.3% gasoline-price jump, and 72.5% odds of a Fed hold. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | NVDA | @rcwhalen | -0.65 | Alleges circular financing is inflating NVIDIA revenue through unusable customer hardware purchases. | -2.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @rcwhalen | · | Quotes a named analyst saying nominal retail-sales growth was largely absorbed by higher gasoline prices. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @rcwhalen | · | Summarizes rising inflation and falling home prices. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @rcwhalen | · | Reports that a 777 Partners co-founder will plead guilty in a US fraud case. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @rcwhalen | · | Characterizes insurers as poor capital providers in DSCR lending. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | ORCL | @rcwhalen | -0.45 | Quotes a source saying markets are souring on leveraged AI trades beyond the immediate CPI catalyst. | -6.2% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | CRWV | @rcwhalen | -0.60 | Quotes a source saying markets are souring on leveraged AI trades beyond the immediate CPI catalyst. | -22.2% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @rcwhalen | · | Reports that Fannie Mae raised its 2027 mortgage-rate forecast while home prices decline. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @rcwhalen | · | Argues banks are right to treat customer acceptance as reputational endorsement and apply caution. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.