Author
@RealJimChanos RealJimChanos
grade Ax.com/RealJimChanos ↗
Forensic dedicated short-seller dismantling AI-capex and neocloud economics with numbers and history
Publishes original bottom-up short theses and macro bubble f
trader score
+1.64
hit rate
60%
mean α
+1.43%
signals 14d
43
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 20 scored bets: 60% hit rate, +1.43% mean alpha, trader score +1.64. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +8.3% since posting (mean over 36 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | IREN | @RealJimChanos | -0.70 | Questions IREN's ARR framing and whether implied December revenue will arrive before the March quarter. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | IREN | @RealJimChanos | -0.78 | Argues IREN repeatedly missed ARR guidance and its $4B December-quarter claim conflicts with estimates. | -12.5% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | IREN | @RealJimChanos | -0.75 | Argues IREN's capex is excessive relative to sub-$3 billion FY2027 revenue and missed ARR forecasts. | -12.5% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | IREN | @RealJimChanos | -0.60 | Questions IREN ARR assumptions versus Street revenue estimates below $3 billion for FY2027. | -12.5% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | IREN | @RealJimChanos | -0.80 | Says IREN's planned $25-$30 billion spending cannot be justified by a $4 billion ARR forecast. | -12.5% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | NVDA | @RealJimChanos | +0.40 | Argues investors should prefer Nvidia over dependent companies trading at valuation premiums. | -4.6% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | NVDA | @RealJimChanos | +0.45 | Argues neocloud growth depends entirely on access to Nvidia GPUs. | -4.6% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | NBIS | @RealJimChanos | -0.45 | Questions why Nvidia-dependent AI firms deserve premiums when Nvidia trades at lower forward EPS multiples. | -4.3% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | NVDA | @RealJimChanos | +0.50 | Questions why Nvidia-dependent AI firms deserve premiums when Nvidia trades at lower forward EPS multiples. | -4.6% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | IREN | @RealJimChanos | -0.45 | Questions why Nvidia-dependent AI firms deserve premiums when Nvidia trades at lower forward EPS multiples. | -12.5% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | CRWV | @RealJimChanos | -0.45 | Questions why Nvidia-dependent AI firms deserve premiums when Nvidia trades at lower forward EPS multiples. | -3.0% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | NBIS | @RealJimChanos | -0.45 | Signals skepticism toward neocloud deal economics across three named firms | -2.2% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | IREN | @RealJimChanos | -0.45 | Signals skepticism toward neocloud deal economics across three named firms | -10.4% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | CRWV | @RealJimChanos | -0.45 | Signals skepticism toward neocloud deal economics across three named firms | -4.3% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | NBIS | @RealJimChanos | -0.45 | Calculates $16.3M annual revenue per MW versus management's $20–25M figure | -2.2% | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.