Author

@ReneSellmann ReneSellmann

Process-obsessed long-only quality-compounder analyst with deep conviction in under-followed fintech

Publishes long-form fundamental theses and investing framewo

trader score
+1.00
hit rate
50%
mean α
+0.94%
signals 14d
93

Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.

Their picks, scored

Across their last 20 scored bets: 50% hit rate, +0.94% mean alpha, trader score +1.00. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +0.2% since posting (mean over 50 mentions with price data).

Recent signals15receipts included
date (PT)tickerauthorsentwhat they saidsince thenreceipt
2026-08-28·@ReneSellmann·Frames the current regime as one where value investing can simultaneously appear dead and remain valid.·
2026-08-28·@ReneSellmann·Quotes Greenlight Capital calling U.S. equities historically expensive.·
2026-08-27·@ReneSellmann·Argues waiting for perfect conditions causes investors to miss long-term gains.·
2026-08-27·@ReneSellmann·Warns that many software companies remain troubled despite rapidly shifting narratives.·
2026-08-27·@ReneSellmann·Argues value investing still works but price-value gaps may take longer to close in modern markets.·
2026-08-27·@ReneSellmann·Frames long holding periods as a durable market edge over faster trading.·
2026-08-27·@ReneSellmann·Claims extending investment horizons creates an exploitable time-arbitrage edge.·
2026-08-27·@ReneSellmann·Explains that emotional, career and benchmarking constraints preserve the long-horizon edge.·
2026-08-27·@ReneSellmann·Cites a chart of 1973 valuation levels compatible with a 7% CAGR over 46 years.·
2026-08-27·@ReneSellmann·Argues high valuation multiples can be cheap when durable earnings growth persists for a decade.·
2026-08-27·@ReneSellmann·Models expected equity returns as an S-curve that improves with longer holding horizons.·
2026-08-27·@ReneSellmann·Explains that near-term volatility is the cost required to capture a long-horizon edge.·
2026-08-27·@ReneSellmann·Argues fewer investors compete on five-to-ten-year outcomes, creating time arbitrage.·
2026-08-27COST@ReneSellmann+0.40Uses Nick Sleep's multi-year Amazon and Costco holdings as evidence that holding time generated alpha.+1.2%
2026-08-27AMZN@ReneSellmann+0.40Uses Nick Sleep's multi-year Amazon and Costco holdings as evidence that holding time generated alpha.+4.0%

Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.