Author · brief 2026-06-22

@RichardWedekin1 RichardWedekin1

Transparent AI value-chain hunter mapping bottleneck suppliers from megacaps to obscure small caps

Original bottom-up analyst and long-only trader who builds t

trader score
-0.53
hit rate
55%
mean α
-0.33%
signals 14d
129

Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.

Their picks, scored

Across their last 20 scored bets: 55% hit rate, -0.33% mean alpha, trader score -0.53. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -1.9% since posting (mean over 77 mentions with price data).

Long optical AI winners, adding ALKAL, bearish space froth

The author is most clearly long a high-growth AI infrastructure basket including ASML, CRDO, SIVE, AAOI and NBIS, while making an active add in ALKAL funded by exiting PYPL at a loss. Their distinctive read is valuation discipline around speculative space names, especially SPCX, where they argue downside is large despite hype. Late-window activity shows a concrete capital rotation into ALKAL and continued public disclosure of concentrated long targets.

Themes5analyst read · 2026-06-22
AI infrastructure disclosed long basket
bullconsistent12 signals
⚠ 42% of theme signals are ASML — flag pump risk
ALKAL and ALRIB supplier accumulation
mixedNEW4 signals
⚠ 50% of theme signals are ALKAL — flag pump risk
Space and defense speculation risk
mixedintensifying14 signals
⚠ 57% of theme signals are SPCX — flag pump risk
Broken stories and downside charts
bearNEW9 signals
ACNSTRCTYLAVATFISVCHTRMTPLFSOI
Value and consumer software opportunities
mixedconsistent9 signals
TPG0TPG.DEMETANVOCPRTTNIE.DEROKUFKURF
Direction this week

Conviction is concentrated in disclosed AI infrastructure longs and the ALKAL add, while the author is sharply bearish on speculative space exposure, especially SPCX. The clearest capital action is a PYPL exit at a loss to double ALKAL, alongside repeated negative SPCX valuation and downside framing. Pump-risk is highest in SPCX commentary and ALKAL accumulation because those tickers dominate their respective themes.

Position disclosures5skin in the game
NBIS Disclosed NBIS as one of five long positions with price targets held
ASML Disclosed ASML as one of five long positions with price targets held
SIVE Disclosed SIVE as one of five long positions with price targets held
CRDO Disclosed CRDO as one of five long positions with price targets held
AAOI Disclosed AAOI as one of five long positions with price targets held
Best hypotheses5their highest-scoring claims in our index
The earnings reaction masks weak fundamentals, with revenue pressure, large losses, mixed guidance, and unacceptable sal
bearMEDIUM6 co-supporters
NU is materially undervalued versus its growth, profitability, earnings power, and fintech or bank comparables.
bullHIGH10 co-supporters
Akre Capital ownership and reported buying suggest respected long-term capital is accumulating or maintaining exposure t
bullMEDIUM2 co-supporters
DLO is undervalued relative to TPV growth, free cash flow, buybacks, earnings growth, and current earnings multiple.
bullHIGH5 co-supporters
The stock has broken its downtrend and technical pullbacks near the mid-60s are attractive entries.
bullMEDIUM3 co-supporters
Recent signals15receipts included
date (PT)tickerauthorsentwhat they saidsince thenreceipt
2026-07-03SIVE@RichardWedekin1+0.80Long SIVE. — Explicit long disclosure/call on SIVE.·
2026-07-03SIVE@RichardWedekin1+0.25SIVE chart analysis cites EMA100 and 38.2 Fib support but warns lower high.·
2026-07-02SNPS@RichardWedekin1+0.35States SNPS price target of $850.
2026-07-02ORCL@RichardWedekin1+0.25Brief bullish EPS mention with rocket emoji.
2026-07-02AXTI@RichardWedekin1-0.45Says AXTI gives back 60%, calling it brutal.
2026-07-02ORCL@RichardWedekin1+0.35Notes last fall below weekly SMA200 preceded near double from 135 to 250.
2026-07-02CEG@RichardWedekin1+0.45First savings-plan tranche invested in CEG for long term. — Author says first CEG savings-plan buy executed and energy utilities look attractive long term.
2026-07-02AEHR@RichardWedekin1-0.15Questions whether CPO is not a bottleneck for named stocks.
2026-07-02SIVE@RichardWedekin1-0.15Questions whether CPO is not a bottleneck for named stocks.·
2026-07-02AAOI@RichardWedekin1-0.15Questions whether CPO is not a bottleneck for named stocks.
2026-07-02CRWV@RichardWedekin1-0.25Says capital is taking profits in neoclouds around META business unit news.
2026-07-02IREN@RichardWedekin1-0.25Says capital is taking profits in neoclouds around META business unit news.
2026-07-02META@RichardWedekin1+0.10Says capital is taking profits in neoclouds around META business unit news.
2026-07-02NBIS@RichardWedekin1-0.25Says capital is taking profits in neoclouds around META business unit news.
2026-07-02SIVE@RichardWedekin1+0.15Mentions Trade Republic new in-house trading feature tied to SIVE.·

Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.