Author

@Ross__Hendricks Ross__Hendricks

Contrarian value trader betting against the AI capex bubble

Posts an original fundamental/macro framework: short/skeptic

trader score
+2.12
hit rate
75%
mean α
+0.82%
signals 14d
74

Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.

Their picks, scored

Across their last 20 scored bets: 75% hit rate, +0.82% mean alpha, trader score +2.12. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +0.8% since posting (mean over 24 mentions with price data).

Recent signals15receipts included
date (PT)tickerauthorsentwhat they saidsince thenreceipt
2026-08-27·@Ross__Hendricks·Sarcastically defends unnamed companies using strong margins, retention and revenue growth.·
2026-08-27NVDA@Ross__Hendricks-0.25Treats celebrity promotion of Nvidia as a possible sign of late-stage enthusiasm.-4.6%
2026-08-27NVDA@Ross__Hendricks-0.20Claims neocloud economics depend unsustainably on Nvidia support despite Nvidia's guidance.-4.6%
2026-08-27CRWV@Ross__Hendricks-0.80Claims neocloud economics depend unsustainably on Nvidia support despite Nvidia's guidance.-3.0%
2026-08-27·@Ross__Hendricks·Warns that unusually elevated corporate earnings themselves may constitute a bubble.·
2026-08-27·@Ross__Hendricks·Cites a $300B demand backstop as evidence of an extreme market mania.·
2026-08-27·@Ross__Hendricks·Rejects the prior inverse relationship between software and semiconductors as a temporary trade artifact.·
2026-08-27FIG@Ross__Hendricks+0.50Discloses ownership of several referenced holdings, including a sizable FIG position.·
2026-08-27·@Ross__Hendricks·Looks back approvingly on buying software at prior generational lows.·
2026-08-27·@Ross__Hendricks·Sarcastically criticizes the scale of continued capital spending.·
2026-08-26·@Ross__Hendricks·Sarcastically questions broad AI usefulness if frontier companies cannot find effective applications.·
2026-08-26·@Ross__Hendricks·Criticizes an unnamed business for relying on extensive off-balance-sheet vendor financing.·
2026-08-26NVDA@Ross__Hendricks-0.65Flags NVDA receivables of $63.1B and DSO rising to 60 from 45 days as evidence of customer-payment risk.+3.8%
2026-08-26·@Ross__Hendricks·Questions whether AI investment has produced broad productivity or profit gains beyond hyperscalers and hardware vendors.·
2026-08-26NKE@Ross__Hendricks-0.80Calls Nike's latest product output poor amid what the author describes as an existential business struggle.+2.6%

Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.