@Ross__Hendricks Ross__Hendricks
Contrarian value trader betting against the AI capex bubble
Posts an original fundamental/macro framework: short/skeptic
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.
Across their last 20 scored bets: 55% hit rate, -0.76% mean alpha, trader score -0.78. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +4.1% since posting (mean over 13 mentions with price data).
Ross is concentrated on bullish oil tightness via BNO calls and energy longs, while owning tobacco as a defensive value basket. His distinctive read is that peace headlines do not fix low inventories, Hormuz risk, or multi-month oil deficits, while Mag-7 AI capex is becoming commoditized and return-destructive. Late-week activity included adding FIG, disclosing BNO calls, and reiterating long energy/tobacco versus short Mag-7 exposure.
Conviction is concentrated in bullish oil exposure, especially BNO calls and long energy names, with repeated macro signals around low inventories, deficits, Hormuz disruption, and failed peace efforts. Bearish conviction is consistent against Mag-7 AI capex economics, centered on MSFT, META, and GOOGL as commoditized compute and poor returns. The clear trade action was an add to FIG, while late-week disclosures showed held long energy and tobacco exposure versus Mag-7 shorts.
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | AXON | @Ross__Hendricks | +0.35 | Notes AXON has been ripping. | +0.5% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @Ross__Hendricks | · | Bearish framework that AI capex binge will end in write-downs and investors holding the bag. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-30 | ANTHROPIC | @Ross__Hendricks | -0.10 | Skeptical take on AI bubble and software companies using Claude. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-29 | · | @Ross__Hendricks | · | Predicts open-source AI models will displace 90% of legacy LLM CEOs within 18 months. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-26 | · | @Ross__Hendricks | · | Discloses being in a small degen trade but no ticker is present. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-26 | WEN | @Ross__Hendricks | +0.55 | WEN up 10% while Nasdaq is getting hammered, framed positively. | +10.3% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-25 | META | @Ross__Hendricks | -0.75 | Criticizes META earnings going into AI capex incinerator despite attractive P/E claims. | +7.4% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-25 | · | @Ross__Hendricks | · | Sarcastically criticizes AI financial decision-making models trained on low-quality sources. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-25 | QQQ | @Ross__Hendricks | -0.75 | Warns hyperscaler 12x earnings rerating from AI cash burn could pressure QQQ. | -0.5% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-25 | · | @Ross__Hendricks | · | Shorting hyperscalers is minting money. — States shorting hyperscalers is profitable, but no specific tickers are named. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-24 | · | @Ross__Hendricks | · | Frames commodity chipmaker blowouts as a tax on hyperscaler and AI compute economics. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-24 | WEN | @Ross__Hendricks | +0.55 | Says WEN long thesis is compelling despite meme framing. | +9.4% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-23 | META | @Ross__Hendricks | -0.60 | Criticizes Zuck for torching shareholder capital on institutional-scale FOMO. | +3.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-23 | · | @Ross__Hendricks | · | Says stopping capex would free cash flow and shares would surge, but no ticker named. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-23 | · | @Ross__Hendricks | · | Discloses owning puts but does not name the underlying security. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.