Author
@StanphylCap StanphylCap
Permabearish value PM dissecting the AI/semi bubble with valuation math and macro logic
Runs Stanphyl Capital, a long/short fund, and posts real-tim
trader score
-0.75
hit rate
60%
mean α
-0.54%
signals 14d
64
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 20 scored bets: 60% hit rate, -0.54% mean alpha, trader score -0.75. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +2.3% since posting (mean over 27 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | · | @StanphylCap | · | Cites an exclusive report that Musk initiated Starlink restrictions in Ukraine. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | TSLA | @StanphylCap | -0.60 | Mocks Tesla's flying-car claim as deceptive. | +4.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | · | @StanphylCap | · | Characterizes market-wide put-call ratios as evidence of complacency. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | · | @StanphylCap | · | Predicts the Fed will unexpectedly raise rates next week despite no-hike consensus. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | · | @StanphylCap | · | Warns investors about SpaceX competition in the $240B mobile-phone services market. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | TSLA | @StanphylCap | -0.80 | Strongly attacks Tesla's prototype, pricing opacity, production uncertainty and customer deposits. | +2.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | NFLX | @StanphylCap | +0.10 | Peter Rice is named Netflix chief content officer, replacing an executive the author criticizes. | -9.3% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | VWAPY | @StanphylCap | +0.65 | Discloses an existing long VWAPY position and recent additions, expecting linked news to help VW. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | AAPL | @StanphylCap | -0.55 | Calls out Apple's valuation at ten times revenue as bubble-like. | +1.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @StanphylCap | · | Argues falling AI-infrastructure borrowing and the AI stock bubble imply recession risk. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | SPCX | @StanphylCap | -0.65 | Sarcastically criticizes SpaceX's consumer businesses as structurally low margin. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @StanphylCap | · | Explicitly predicts an October interest-rate hike. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | CRWV | @StanphylCap | -0.60 | Questions whether CoreWeave can remain solvent. | -17.6% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @StanphylCap | · | Suspects an unprecedented collective deviation from GAAP reporting, but lacks company context. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @StanphylCap | · | Urges stock and bond markets to disregard an unnamed policymaker's guidance. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.