Author
@StanphylCap StanphylCap
Permabearish value PM dissecting the AI/semi bubble with valuation math and macro logic
Runs Stanphyl Capital, a long/short fund, and posts real-tim
trader score
+1.29
hit rate
55%
mean α
+0.67%
signals 14d
74
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 20 scored bets: 55% hit rate, +0.67% mean alpha, trader score +1.29. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +0.7% since posting (mean over 13 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | · | @StanphylCap | · | Proposes a cost-cutting governance strategy for Volkswagen without an explicit tradable ticker. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @StanphylCap | · | Says an unspecified development should have crashed stocks and condemns current market complacency. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @StanphylCap | · | Observes that gold followed the bond market, but provides no directly supported ticker. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @StanphylCap | · | Expresses concern that weakness extends beyond the short end, but the linked chart is unavailable. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @StanphylCap | · | Interprets Warsh as strongly favoring balance-sheet reduction, a restrictive monetary-policy stance. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @StanphylCap | · | Calls an unidentified company an avoid due to competitive problems and a lost $61 offer. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | · | @StanphylCap | · | Suggests CEO incentives caused rejection of an unidentified $61-per-share buyout. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | · | @StanphylCap | · | Buy it around $1 and hope the business avoids another disappointment. — Gives a conditional future buy level but the security is unidentified. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | TSLA | @StanphylCap | -0.75 | Sarcastically mocks an exaggerated Tesla sales prediction. | -1.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | TSLA | @StanphylCap | -0.45 | Mocks Musk's reimbursement promise and cites delayed Roadster deposits as evidence. | -1.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | · | @StanphylCap | · | Reports negative S&P 500 breadth with advancers minus decliners at -159. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | · | @StanphylCap | · | Argues hyperscalers are spending excessively, implying concern about AI capex returns. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | HPQ | @StanphylCap | +0.40 | Reports multiple HPQ analyst price-target raises while arguing the stock remains cheap. | +3.0% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | · | @StanphylCap | · | Frames consumption and stocks as dependent on trillions of AI infrastructure spending. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | HPQ | @StanphylCap | +0.70 | Discloses a long HP position and presents a valuation, yield and margin-recovery thesis. | +0.0% | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.