Author
@TBU12345678 TBU12345678
grade Ax.com/TBU12345678 ↗
Anonymous, sharp semiconductor analyst trading fabs-vs-fabless margins and AI-valuation de-ratings
Posts contrarian, fundamentally-reasoned takes on semis and
trader score
-0.71
hit rate
40%
mean α
-0.63%
signals 14d
32
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 20 scored bets: 40% hit rate, -0.63% mean alpha, trader score -0.71. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -3.8% since posting (mean over 15 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | NVDA | @TBU12345678 | +0.00 | Says an earlier NVDA view proved wrong and the author adjusted after the market provided an exit. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | NVDA | @TBU12345678 | +0.45 | Calls NVDA an evergreen holding or thesis. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @TBU12345678 | · | Rejects the idea that projected lab ARR justifies more than $1T of capital expenditure. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | LLY | @TBU12345678 | +0.45 | Argues AI value must shift from semiconductors toward users, favoring drug discovery and bioprocessing. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | TMO | @TBU12345678 | +0.30 | Argues AI value must shift from semiconductors toward users, favoring drug discovery and bioprocessing. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | NVDA | @TBU12345678 | -0.25 | Argues AI value must shift from semiconductors toward users, favoring drug discovery and bioprocessing. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | MRNA | @TBU12345678 | +0.35 | Argues AI value must shift from semiconductors toward users, favoring drug discovery and bioprocessing. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | DHR | @TBU12345678 | +0.30 | Argues AI value must shift from semiconductors toward users, favoring drug discovery and bioprocessing. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | NVDA | @TBU12345678 | +0.00 | Reflects on a past Nvidia call as correct but based on flawed reasoning. | -4.6% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | OKTA | @TBU12345678 | -0.10 | Criticizes software investors for overlooking Susan St. Ledger's history. | +27.3% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | SPLK | @TBU12345678 | -0.10 | Criticizes software investors for overlooking Susan St. Ledger's history. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | HCP | @TBU12345678 | -0.10 | Criticizes software investors for overlooking Susan St. Ledger's history. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | CRM | @TBU12345678 | -0.10 | Criticizes software investors for overlooking Susan St. Ledger's history. | +24.5% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-24 | · | @TBU12345678 | · | States custom base-die ownership is bad for memory makers. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-24 | · | @TBU12345678 | · | Disputes the idea that customers will not own custom base-die IP and capture margin. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.