Author
@TBU12345678 TBU12345678
grade Ax.com/TBU12345678 ↗
Anonymous, sharp semiconductor analyst trading fabs-vs-fabless margins and AI-valuation de-ratings
Posts contrarian, fundamentally-reasoned takes on semis and
trader score
-0.37
hit rate
45%
mean α
-0.23%
signals 14d
8
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 20 scored bets: 45% hit rate, -0.23% mean alpha, trader score -0.37. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -1.2% since posting (mean over 5 mentions with price data).
Recent signals8receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | · | @TBU12345678 | · | Argues AI versus other-sector exposure must reset before a broad index-level capitulation. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | MU | @TBU12345678 | +0.70 | Bullish memory thesis argues a concentrated group of suppliers may control the next major AI bottleneck. | -0.1% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | SKHY | @TBU12345678 | +0.70 | Bullish memory thesis argues a concentrated group of suppliers may control the next major AI bottleneck. | +0.4% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @TBU12345678 | · | Asserts DRAM is a bottleneck, implying positive scarcity dynamics for the memory sector. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | GOOGL | @TBU12345678 | +0.60 | Expects mega-cap platforms to take leadership from AI labs after near-term value destruction. | -8.3% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | META | @TBU12345678 | +0.60 | Expects mega-cap platforms to take leadership from AI labs after near-term value destruction. | -12.8% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | NBIS | @TBU12345678 | -0.20 | Dismisses Nebius as merely a restructured Yandex, implying limited differentiation. | -14.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-07 | · | @TBU12345678 | · | Frames disagreement between equities and bonds around Iran-driven inflation uncertainty. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.