Author
@tculpan tculpan
grade Ax.com/tculpan ↗
Veteran semiconductor journalist dissecting the Asia chip supply chain with primary scoops
Reports and analyzes the global semiconductor and AI-hardwar
trader score
+1.62
hit rate
75%
mean α
+0.41%
signals 14d
28
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 20 scored bets: 75% hit rate, +0.41% mean alpha, trader score +1.62. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -4.1% since posting (mean over 21 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | TSM | @tculpan | +0.15 | TSMC's chairman deferred details on a possible Terafab deal until January. | +1.4% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | TSM | @tculpan | -0.10 | Rejects a claim that TSMC is acting more aggressively than ever. | -0.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | TSM | @tculpan | +0.25 | Highlights overlooked excess-capacity wording as key to a possible Terafab arrangement. | -0.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | TSM | @tculpan | +0.25 | Reports talks between TSMC and Terafab and reconciles statements about fab operation. | -0.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | TSM | @tculpan | +0.20 | Argues TSMC and Musk's fab-operation statements are compatible. | -0.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | TSM | @tculpan | +0.25 | Says TSMC has spoken about Terafab and outlined a new future. | -0.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | TSM | @tculpan | +0.35 | Calculates 58% Q4 revenue growth while noting margins below recent peaks. | -2.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | TSM | @tculpan | +0.55 | CEO reports 44% full-year growth and extremely robust leading-edge demand. | -2.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | TSM | @tculpan | +0.10 | TSMC maintains $60B-$64B full-year capex guidance. | -2.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | TSM | @tculpan | +0.50 | TSMC guides Q4 revenue to $52.3B-$54.3B and 2026 revenue near $176B. | -2.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | TSM | @tculpan | +0.45 | Reports record-high Q3 wafer ASP of $10,447. | -2.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | TSM | @tculpan | +0.60 | Reports record net income and operating results with margins at or above guidance. | -2.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | · | @tculpan | · | Reports the CASCI AI-compute indicator fell for the first time in 12 months. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-13 | · | @tculpan | · | Reports the first monthly decline in the Culpium AI Supply Chain Index as constraints squeeze suppliers. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-11 | ASML | @tculpan | +0.30 | Reports Terafab ordered ASML EUV tools for delivery to its R&D fab around mid-2027. | -11.7% | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.