Author
@TheRealBirnbaum TheRealBirnbaum
grade Cx.com/TheRealBirnbaum ↗
Long-only AI/compute perma-bull arguing fundamental theses against every bubble call
Writes long-form, position-disclosed fundamental bull theses
trader score
-0.98
hit rate
35%
mean α
-1.16%
signals 14d
116
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 20 scored bets: 35% hit rate, -1.16% mean alpha, trader score -0.98. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -9.9% since posting (mean over 53 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | · | @TheRealBirnbaum | · | Warns that excessive leverage likely caused mass liquidations. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | IREN | @TheRealBirnbaum | +0.55 | Explicitly characterizes IREN conditions as bottom signals. | -7.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | CRWV | @TheRealBirnbaum | +0.55 | Argues AI-trade fears are immaterial and CRWV sentiment will reverse swiftly. | -11.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | AMD | @TheRealBirnbaum | +0.50 | Uses CRWV, AMD and PLTR to argue for owning strong businesses through macro fear. | -2.3% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | PLTR | @TheRealBirnbaum | +0.50 | Uses CRWV, AMD and PLTR to argue for owning strong businesses through macro fear. | +5.8% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | CRWV | @TheRealBirnbaum | +0.55 | Uses CRWV, AMD and PLTR to argue for owning strong businesses through macro fear. | -11.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | · | @TheRealBirnbaum | · | Dismisses recurring market-crash commentary as fear-driven and unreliable. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | IREN | @TheRealBirnbaum | -0.35 | Says IREN must convert power into contracts and may not hold above $15 without execution. | -7.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | · | @TheRealBirnbaum | · | Load up during the selloff or get left behind. — Explicitly urges buying shares lower, but names no specific ticker. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | · | @TheRealBirnbaum | · | Strongly argues that AI's benefits are real and publicly evident. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | CRWV | @TheRealBirnbaum | +0.65 | Calls CRWV almost laughably cheap, expressing a clear bullish valuation view. | -11.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | NBIS | @TheRealBirnbaum | +0.65 | Says an industry shakeout would be extremely bullish for the named survivors. | -4.1% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | IREN | @TheRealBirnbaum | +0.65 | Says an industry shakeout would be extremely bullish for the named survivors. | -7.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | CRWV | @TheRealBirnbaum | +0.65 | Says an industry shakeout would be extremely bullish for the named survivors. | -11.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | NBIS | @TheRealBirnbaum | +0.50 | Argues dilution can fund NBIS scale advantages and is preferable to excessive leverage. | -15.7% | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.