@TheShortBear TheShortBear
Anon high-conviction macro/crypto trader with a deep ETH-as-AI-infrastructure thesis
Writes long-form, multi-factor theses synthesizing macro/liq
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.
Across their last 20 scored bets: 45% hit rate, +0.56% mean alpha, trader score +0.69. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +5.7% since posting (mean over 48 mentions with price data).
The author is centered on a risk-on macro framework built around peace headlines, stable yields, oil shock interpretation, and Fed credibility positioning. The distinctive single-name work is a late-window bearish MSTR thesis around lost MNAV confidence, leverage, preferreds, dilution, and capital discipline, while GOOGL is used more as an AI-disruption analogy than a direct stock call. No explicit position disclosures or directional trade calls were provided.
The week starts with macro risk-on framing around peace, lower yields, Fed interpretation, and oil risk, then shifts into a concentrated bearish MSTR capital-structure critique on June 18-19. No adds, trims, exits, or explicit trade initiations are disclosed. Ticker concentration is limited to MSTR and GOOGL, with MSTR the clearest high-conviction single-name view.
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | · | @TheShortBear | · | Reports worst two days on record for the Momentum factor. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | RSP | @TheShortBear | +0.35 | Full rotation trade: equal-weight RSP up while QQQ down nearly 2%, crypto higher. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | QQQ | @TheShortBear | -0.35 | Full rotation trade: equal-weight RSP up while QQQ down nearly 2%, crypto higher. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | QQQ | @TheShortBear | -0.25 | QQQ down almost 2% while many names hold up; semis seeing destruction. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @TheShortBear | · | Author says rotation thesis is playing out from shorts to longs. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | KORU | @TheShortBear | -0.25 | Semis give back news pops by the next day across MU, SOXL, KORU, and BE. | -9.8% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | BE | @TheShortBear | -0.35 | Semis give back news pops by the next day across MU, SOXL, KORU, and BE. | -6.4% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | MU | @TheShortBear | -0.35 | Semis give back news pops by the next day across MU, SOXL, KORU, and BE. | -5.5% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | SOXL | @TheShortBear | -0.45 | Semis give back news pops by the next day across MU, SOXL, KORU, and BE. | -16.6% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | SE | @TheShortBear | +0.30 | Summarizes rotation positions with portfolio weights and additions/cuts. | +0.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @TheShortBear | · | Notes 31.3% of book is in healthcare and biotech. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | EWZ | @TheShortBear | +0.55 | Summarizes rotation positions with portfolio weights and additions/cuts. | +0.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | TBBB | @TheShortBear | +0.30 | Summarizes rotation positions with portfolio weights and additions/cuts. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | YPF | @TheShortBear | +0.45 | Summarizes rotation positions with portfolio weights and additions/cuts. | -1.2% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | CPNG | @TheShortBear | -0.15 | Summarizes rotation positions with portfolio weights and additions/cuts. | +2.4% | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.