Author
@TheShortBear TheShortBear
grade Bx.com/TheShortBear ↗
Anon high-conviction macro/crypto trader with a deep ETH-as-AI-infrastructure thesis
Writes long-form, multi-factor theses synthesizing macro/liq
trader score
-2.91
hit rate
20%
mean α
-1.21%
signals 14d
73
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 20 scored bets: 20% hit rate, -1.21% mean alpha, trader score -2.91. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +2.3% since posting (mean over 32 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | · | @TheShortBear | · | Observes rotation beneath the surface despite sharp AI-related declines and calls the market resilient. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @TheShortBear | · | Hot PPI, falling yields, rising oil and weakening breadth are framed as signs markets may be breaking. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | ELV | @TheShortBear | +0.50 | Discloses a prior healthcare bet and presents the group as a defensive breakout and portfolio hedge. | +2.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | CNC | @TheShortBear | +0.50 | Discloses a prior healthcare bet and presents the group as a defensive breakout and portfolio hedge. | -0.5% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | UNH | @TheShortBear | +0.50 | Discloses a prior healthcare bet and presents the group as a defensive breakout and portfolio hedge. | +2.8% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | HUM | @TheShortBear | +0.50 | Discloses a prior healthcare bet and presents the group as a defensive breakout and portfolio hedge. | -2.3% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | IHF | @TheShortBear | +0.65 | Discloses a prior healthcare bet and presents the group as a defensive breakout and portfolio hedge. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | MOH | @TheShortBear | +0.50 | Discloses a prior healthcare bet and presents the group as a defensive breakout and portfolio hedge. | -1.6% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | TLT | @TheShortBear | +0.30 | Signals approval of TLT but says RKT needs consumer confidence to recover first. | +1.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | RKT | @TheShortBear | -0.25 | Signals approval of TLT but says RKT needs consumer confidence to recover first. | +6.0% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @TheShortBear | · | Endorses an unnamed sector for growth and cash flows but warns a slowdown would initially overwhelm it. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | ARKK | @TheShortBear | -0.75 | Compares the market to 2001 and warns of a multi-year AI-led unwinding and contagion. | -2.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | ORCL | @TheShortBear | -0.65 | Compares the market to 2001 and warns of a multi-year AI-led unwinding and contagion. | -3.4% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | QQQ | @TheShortBear | -0.75 | Compares the market to 2001 and warns of a multi-year AI-led unwinding and contagion. | -3.4% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @TheShortBear | · | Views divided government as historically favorable and expects panic to exceed the real impact. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.