Author
@TheShortBear TheShortBear
grade Bx.com/TheShortBear ↗
Anon high-conviction macro/crypto trader with a deep ETH-as-AI-infrastructure thesis
Writes long-form, multi-factor theses synthesizing macro/liq
trader score
-0.62
hit rate
30%
mean α
-0.18%
signals 14d
24
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 20 scored bets: 30% hit rate, -0.18% mean alpha, trader score -0.62. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +6.9% since posting (mean over 2 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | SLV | @TheShortBear | -0.40 | Discusses shorting parabolic moves across a named basket using win-rate and scaling discipline. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | CAR | @TheShortBear | -0.40 | Discusses shorting parabolic moves across a named basket using win-rate and scaling discipline. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | KORU | @TheShortBear | -0.40 | Discusses shorting parabolic moves across a named basket using win-rate and scaling discipline. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | MSTR | @TheShortBear | -0.40 | Discusses shorting parabolic moves across a named basket using win-rate and scaling discipline. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | CVNA | @TheShortBear | -0.40 | Discusses shorting parabolic moves across a named basket using win-rate and scaling discipline. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | GLD | @TheShortBear | -0.40 | Discusses shorting parabolic moves across a named basket using win-rate and scaling discipline. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @TheShortBear | · | Contrasts win-rate-focused shorting with pyramided longs across trading regimes. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @TheShortBear | · | Presents a long-form framework for pyramiding high-conviction trades to improve expectancy. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | · | @TheShortBear | · | Author shares a historical chart of Soros's trade structure around the dot-com collapse. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | ETH | @TheShortBear | +0.80 | Argues Ethereum's liquidity, security and scale will compound a dominant network effect. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-21 | · | @TheShortBear | · | Citadel reportedly sold about 80% of the stakes acquired from Situational Awareness. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-21 | · | @TheShortBear | · | Argues Citadel managed the unwind and news cycle, clearing leverage before systematic buying. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-21 | · | @TheShortBear | · | Reports Citadel realized a 50%+ gain on a roughly $4–4.5B stake within a month. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-21 | · | @TheShortBear | · | Attributes crypto's rally to short positioning, underexposure and a lack of remaining sellers. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-21 | · | @TheShortBear | · | Presents a framework linking precedent, surprise, positioning and reflexivity. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.