Author · brief 2026-06-22

@TiltFolio TiltFolio

Systematic trend-follower preaching gold-debasement and intermarket regime rotation with disclosed positions

Runs and markets quantitative trend-following portfolios (Ti

trader score
-1.34
hit rate
25%
mean α
-0.50%
signals 14d
106

Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.

Their picks, scored

Across their last 20 scored bets: 25% hit rate, -0.50% mean alpha, trader score -1.34. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -1.9% since posting (mean over 16 mentions with price data).

Gold lead over equities, tactical SPY round trip

TiltFolio is chiefly positioned around a systematic gold-over-equities view, explicitly long gold and betting GLD outperforms QQQ. The author also ran a short tactical SPY buy-the-dip trade that was filled and then exited, while framing bonds as a future opportunity but saying they are not long bonds here. Berkshire is treated constructively versus insurance peers because of its cash optionality.

Themes4analyst read · 2026-06-22
Gold leadership versus equity beta
mixedconsistent7 signals
⚠ 86% of theme signals are GLD — flag pump risk
Systematic tactical equity timing
mixedfading9 signals
⚠ 78% of theme signals are SPY — flag pump risk
Cash optionality and insurance comparison
bullconsistent2 signals
⚠ 50% of theme signals are BRK.B — flag pump risk
Bond duration future setup
bullNEW4 signals
Direction this week

Conviction is concentrated in gold leadership: the author disclosed being back in gold, framed GLD as outperforming QQQ, and later reiterated still being long gold. Equity exposure was tactical, with a SPY dip-buy filled on June 17 and an exit signal on June 18, while XLE was described as a prior small-loss exit. The bond discussion is constructive for future duration returns, but the author explicitly said they are not long bonds here.

Position disclosures4skin in the game
GLD System moved back into gold as precious metals outperform stocks. added
SPY SPY buy-the-dip order was filled at 750.44; exit signal to follow later. added
GLD System remains long gold for now despite possible drawdowns. held
GLD Not long bonds here and still long gold for now. held
Best hypotheses4their highest-scoring claims in our index
Capital is rotating away from semiconductors toward software, defensives, financials, energy, or value groups.
neutralHIGH8 co-supporters
Capital is rotating back into software after semis and other leaders outperformed, making IGV an early catch-up trade.
bullHIGH9 co-supporters
Wheat price action has broken higher and the trend remains intact, supporting further upside follow-through.
bullLOW1 co-supporters
Gold should outperform equities and other risk assets as secular relative returns shift away from stocks.
bullMEDIUM3 co-supporters
Recent signals15receipts included
date (PT)tickerauthorsentwhat they saidsince thenreceipt
2026-07-03XLE@TiltFolio+0.35Says XLE shows signs market sees future commodity outperformance.
2026-07-03QQQ@TiltFolio-0.10Europe has outperformed Nasdaq and US growth stocks since Dec 2024.
2026-07-03IWF@TiltFolio-0.10Europe has outperformed Nasdaq and US growth stocks since Dec 2024.·
2026-07-03IEV@TiltFolio+0.40MSCI Europe ETF making new all-time highs; value tends to outperform growth in inflationary regimes.·
2026-07-02IWD@TiltFolio+0.35Trend-following system currently long IWD.·
2026-07-02·@TiltFolio·Highlights portfolio stats: losing years, drawdown and volatility versus stocks.·
2026-07-02GLD@TiltFolio+0.70Gold rallies from here — Author says Nasdaq-to-gold rejects 200-week MA, boding well for gold.
2026-07-02IWD@TiltFolio+0.45System is long Russell-1000 Value amid value outperforming growth.·
2026-07-02·@TiltFolio·Author says value stocks are very bullish and outperforming growth.·
2026-07-02IWD@TiltFolio+0.45Inflationary bull case favors gold, energy and value over growth and bonds; long IWD.·
2026-07-02·@TiltFolio·Argues 50/30/20 bonds/stocks/gold portfolio hedges inflation and currency debasement.·
2026-07-02·@TiltFolio·Sees signs market is adjusting to inflationary regime similar to 2000-2009.·
2026-07-02IWD@TiltFolio+0.65Value hits ATH while growth lags; expects energy, gold and value to dominate future returns.·
2026-07-02IWF@TiltFolio-0.25Value hits ATH while growth lags; expects energy, gold and value to dominate future returns.·
2026-07-02·@TiltFolio·Expects money to rotate into value stocks as value outperforms growth.·

Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.