Author · brief 2026-06-22
@yasutaketin yasutaketin
grade Bx.com/yasutaketin ↗
Japanese AI-infrastructure swing trader mapping the compute-memory-cloud value chain in real time
Posts detailed, tickered theses and live position updates on
trader score
+0.15
hit rate
50%
mean α
+0.14%
signals 14d
386
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 20 scored bets: 50% hit rate, +0.14% mean alpha, trader score +0.15. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +0.5% since posting (mean over 170 mentions with price data).
Risk-on semis, space momentum, and selective cloud re-rating
The author is primarily trading risk-on growth, with strongest repeat conviction in semis and memory, especially MU, plus selective re-entries in HOOD and ALM. Their distinctive read is that AI capex, sovereign AI, and falling token costs support infrastructure winners, while valuation discipline is starting to matter for crowded momentum names like SPCX and NBIS/CRWV. Late week, they turned more cautious on SpaceX/SPCX valuation and CPO charts while still arguing the broader bull market and semiconductor climax can continue.
Disclosed book7names the author says they hold — positions, not commentary
LONGNVDA21 sigsLONGSPCX21 sigsLONGMU18 sigsLONGNBIS12 sigsLONGSNDK11 sigsLONGGOOGL8 sigsLONGSKM3 sigs
Themes6analyst read · 2026-06-22
◆Macro risk-on regime and rates/oil path
SPYT10YIE
Hypotheses20what the author said, ticker-anchored — ✓ skin = disclosed position behind it
| claim | ticker | dir | strength | signals | skin | theme | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LITE and CPO-related charts are deteriorating | LITE | ▼ | 0.19 | 2 | · | Late-week CPO and software-servi | tweet ↗ |
| ACN selloff reflects guidance pressure but may become oversold near buy points | ACN | ◆ | 0.17 | 3 | · | Late-week CPO and software-servi | tweet ↗ |
| HOOD is worth re-entering as volumes, layoffs, stock-token policy and technicals improve | HOOD | ▲ | 0.17 | 4 | · | Fintech and consumer-app breakou | tweet ↗ |
| AMZN looks cheap relative to cloud data-center peers despite Anthropic uncertainty | AMZN | ▲ | 0.15 | 4 | · | AI capex and cloud infrastructur | tweet ↗ |
| NVDA and AVGO remain core AI hardware beneficiaries with improving charts | NVDA | ▲ | 0.10 | 5 | ✓ | Semiconductor and memory dip-buy | tweet ↗ |
| GOOGL capex should be seen as demand-driven AI infrastructure investment | GOOGL | ▲ | 0.08 | 2 | ✓ | AI capex and cloud infrastructur | tweet ↗ |
| NFLX valuation and technical setup are nearing a possible buy area | NFLX | ▲ | 0.07 | 2 | · | Late-week CPO and software-servi | tweet ↗ |
| DASH setup is improving on lower driver-cost pressure, clean chart and robot delivery initiatives | DASH | ▲ | 0.07 | 5 | · | Fintech and consumer-app breakou | tweet ↗ |
| MU should keep being bought on declines as memory strength persists | MU | ▲ | 0.05 | 6 | ✓ | Semiconductor and memory dip-buy | tweet ↗ |
| SPCX benefited from launch demand and retail momentum but valuation concern is now biting | SPCX | ▼ | 0.05 | 5 | · | Space and launch-provider moment | tweet ↗ |
| PLTR remains a differentiated enterprise AI name despite mixed newsflow | PLTR | ▲ | 0.04 | 5 | · | AI capex and cloud infrastructur | tweet ↗ |
| RKLB is an attractive launch-provider exposure with founder-driven conviction | RKLB | ▲ | 0.04 | 5 | · | Space and launch-provider moment | tweet ↗ |
| Later-year market shift risk rises from IPO supply, inflation and Fed tests | SPY | ▼ | 0.03 | 2 | · | Macro risk-on regime and rates/o | tweet ↗ |
| SpaceX and Rocket Lab deserve premium valuations because launch-provider moats are scarce | RKLB | ▲ | 0.03 | 6 | · | Space and launch-provider moment | tweet ↗ |
| NBIS and CRWV rallies may be momentum or index-inclusion driven, so caution is warranted | NBIS | ▼ | 0.02 | 4 | · | AI capex and cloud infrastructur | tweet ↗ |
| TSMC and Asian semiconductor dips remain attractive within the AI rally | TSMC | ▲ | 0.02 | 4 | · | Semiconductor and memory dip-buy | tweet ↗ |
| ALM is a tactical buy on tungsten export halt and semiconductor materials scarcity | ALM | ▲ | 0.01 | 2 | · | Semiconductor and memory dip-buy | tweet ↗ |
| UK under-16 social restrictions are a headwind for META and RDDT | META | ▼ | 0.01 | 2 | · | Fintech and consumer-app breakou | tweet ↗ |
| Falling oil and easing inflation risk support U.S. equities and risk assets | SPY | ▲ | 0.00 | 5 | · | Macro risk-on regime and rates/o | tweet ↗ |
| Hawkish FOMC messaging can pressure high-PER growth, but hold policy is not crash-inducing | SPY | ◆ | 0.00 | 6 | · | Macro risk-on regime and rates/o | tweet ↗ |
Direction this week
Conviction is concentrated in semiconductor and memory dip-buying, with explicit adds in MU, TSMC and ALM, plus a late re-entry in HOOD. The clearest flip is in space exposure: early bullishness on SPCX/RKLB shifted into valuation skepticism and negative SPCX chart commentary by June 18-19. Macro tone stayed risk-on despite FOMC caution, but the author flagged pump risk in SPCX and momentum-driven caution in NBIS/CRWV.
Per-ticker coverage80positions first, then by signal count
| ticker | signals | sentiment | calls | pos | news | action | alignment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | 21 | +0.26 | 0 | 2 | 4 | hold disclosed | neutral |
| SPCX | 21 | +0.14 | 0 | 1 | 1 | hold disclosed | neutral |
| MU | 18 | +0.41 | 2 | 2 | 0 | long call | ✓ long (has position) |
| NBIS | 12 | +0.30 | 0 | 2 | 2 | hold disclosed | ✓ long (has position) |
| SNDK | 11 | +0.45 | 0 | 2 | 0 | hold disclosed | ✓ long (has position) |
| GOOGL | 8 | +0.21 | 0 | 1 | 0 | hold disclosed | neutral |
| SKM | 3 | +0.48 | 0 | 1 | 0 | hold disclosed | ✓ long (has position) |
| AMZN | 11 | +0.02 | 0 | 0 | 1 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| RKLB | 11 | +0.35 | 0 | 0 | 2 | bullish commentary | commentary only |
| QQQ | 11 | +0.15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| PLTR | 7 | +0.11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| SOXX | 7 | +0.46 | 1 | 0 | 0 | long call | no position bull call |
| AVGO | 7 | +0.06 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| HOOD | 6 | +0.32 | 1 | 0 | 3 | long call | no position bull call |
| DRAM | 6 | +0.45 | 2 | 0 | 0 | long call | no position bull call |
| MSFT | 6 | -0.02 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| CRWV | 5 | +0.31 | 1 | 0 | 2 | long call | no position bull call |
| DASH | 5 | +0.29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| META | 4 | -0.17 | 0 | 0 | 2 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| ORCL | 4 | -0.15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| RBRK | 4 | +0.15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| SPY | 4 | -0.01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| ZS | 3 | -0.40 | 0 | 0 | 1 | bearish commentary | commentary only |
| IGV | 3 | -0.03 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| APP | 3 | -0.03 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| TSMC | 3 | +0.47 | 1 | 0 | 0 | long call | no position bull call |
| XLF | 3 | +0.38 | 0 | 0 | 0 | bullish commentary | commentary only |
| ACN | 3 | -0.22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| SPX | 2 | +0.20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| TER | 2 | +0.45 | 0 | 0 | 2 | bullish commentary | commentary only |
| NFLX | 2 | +0.25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| TSM | 2 | +0.25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| AAPL | 2 | +0.07 | 0 | 0 | 1 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| PANW | 2 | +0.35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | bullish commentary | commentary only |
| ALAB | 2 | +0.45 | 0 | 0 | 2 | bullish commentary | commentary only |
| V | 2 | +0.05 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| CRWD | 2 | +0.35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | bullish commentary | commentary only |
| SMH | 2 | +0.25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| LITE | 2 | -0.40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | bearish commentary | commentary only |
| ASML | 2 | +0.42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | bullish commentary | commentary only |
| 005930.KS | 2 | +0.05 | 0 | 0 | 1 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| MBLY | 1 | +0.35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | bullish commentary | commentary only |
| KLAC | 1 | +0.40 | 0 | 0 | 1 | bullish commentary | commentary only |
| GS | 1 | +0.10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| ROKU | 1 | +0.50 | 0 | 0 | 1 | bullish commentary | commentary only |
| VST | 1 | +0.60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | bullish commentary | commentary only |
| MRVL | 1 | -0.35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | bearish commentary | commentary only |
| ALM | 1 | +0.55 | 1 | 0 | 0 | long call | no position bull call |
| AMAT | 1 | +0.40 | 0 | 0 | 1 | bullish commentary | commentary only |
| DOCN | 1 | +0.10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| ETH | 1 | +0.25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| QCOM | 1 | -0.35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | bearish commentary | commentary only |
| IREN | 1 | +0.45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | bullish commentary | commentary only |
| RDDT | 1 | -0.35 | 0 | 0 | 1 | bearish commentary | commentary only |
| XBI | 1 | +0.55 | 0 | 0 | 0 | bullish commentary | commentary only |
| KKR | 1 | +0.45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | bullish commentary | commentary only |
| JPM | 1 | +0.30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | bullish commentary | commentary only |
| GE | 1 | +0.45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | bullish commentary | commentary only |
| FAS | 1 | +0.25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| ARM | 1 | -0.35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | bearish commentary | commentary only |
| ASTS | 1 | +0.05 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| OSCR | 1 | +0.30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | bullish commentary | commentary only |
| AMD | 1 | +0.45 | 0 | 0 | 1 | bullish commentary | commentary only |
| 000660.KS | 1 | +0.35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | bullish commentary | commentary only |
| BTC | 1 | +0.25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| FCX | 1 | +0.15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| INTC | 1 | +0.70 | 0 | 0 | 1 | bullish commentary | commentary only |
| SCCO | 1 | +0.15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| GM | 1 | -0.25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| AMC | 1 | +0.10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| PL | 1 | +0.05 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| COIN | 1 | +0.45 | 0 | 0 | 1 | bullish commentary | commentary only |
| NOW | 1 | -0.20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| LRCX | 1 | +0.40 | 0 | 0 | 1 | bullish commentary | commentary only |
| T10YIE | 1 | -0.20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| 2244.T | 1 | +0.45 | 1 | 0 | 0 | long call | no position bull call |
| DIA | 1 | +0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
| MRNA | 1 | +0.50 | 0 | 0 | 1 | bullish commentary | commentary only |
| IBM | 1 | +0.45 | 0 | 0 | 1 | bullish commentary | commentary only |
| TSLA | 1 | -0.15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | neutral commentary | neutral |
Alignment separates skin-in-the-game from commentary: ✓ = the author discloses a position consistent with their talk; “call (no pos)” = directional call without a disclosed position; “commentary” = opinion only.
Conviction trades4explicit CALL_DIRECTIONAL actions, receipts included
add 3
| date | ticker | what they said | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | TSMC | Buying semiconductor dips looks attractive as TSMC and Asian memory names rally | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-15 | ALM | Bought ALM again on tungsten export halt and semiconductor material supply concerns | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-06-16 | MU | Intends to average down MU and keep buying declines | tweet ↗ |
initiate long 1
| date | ticker | what they said | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-20 | HOOD | Re-entering HOOD after last week looked like a buy trigger | tweet ↗ |
Position disclosures1skin in the game
Disclosed three newly bought non-semiconductor names, but did not identify tickers added
News / data points5discrete events + data the author reported
HOOD SEC policy may approve stock-token trading and reshape brokerage markets
HOOD HOOD rose on layoffs, record volumes and analyst price-target increases
INTC Trump comments framed Intel support, Nvidia and Apple cooperation, and U.S. Intel stake
MRNA FDA advisory panel unanimously recommended Moderna flu vaccine approval
PLTR French domestic intelligence agency dropped Palantir for a local rival
Best hypotheses5their highest-scoring claims in our index
▲Zoom should re-rate as an indirect Anthropic IPO proxy because its Anthropic stake may unlock hidden strategic value.
▲Google’s TPU, Gemini, token-processing and memory-efficiency advances create a full-stack AI advantage versus outsourced
▲Wells Fargo’s upgrade and price target raise validate reduced pricing risk and can support a broader OSCR re-rating.
▲ARR growth, subscription momentum, margin expansion, and FCF progress show Rubrik’s model is scaling durably.
▼Rising yields, credit spreads and poor AI capex ROI could pressure hyperscaler multiples and financing capacity.
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | · | @yasutaketin | · | Cites semiconductor analyst's negative view on memory stocks and DRAM price inflection risk. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | PLTR | @yasutaketin | +0.20 | States Palantir uses Nvidia's open Nemotron model. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | NVDA | @yasutaketin | +0.10 | States Palantir uses Nvidia's open Nemotron model. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | MU | @yasutaketin | +0.40 | Attributes memory rebound to DRAM/NAND price hike expectations and AI demand. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | SNDK | @yasutaketin | +0.40 | Attributes memory rebound to DRAM/NAND price hike expectations and AI demand. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | NVDA | @yasutaketin | +0.35 | Cites Tom Lee view that robotics may drive a new secular semiconductor/RAM cycle. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | CRWV | @yasutaketin | +0.45 | Says cited material is especially bullish for CoreWeave. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | · | @yasutaketin | · | Frames OpenAI inference efficiency as positive for AI apps/hyperscalers and negative for neoclouds. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | GEV | @yasutaketin | +0.10 | Bullish on HONA post-spinoff, citing aerospace, defense and discount removal themes. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | HONA | @yasutaketin | +0.65 | Bullish on HONA post-spinoff, citing aerospace, defense and discount removal themes. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | GE | @yasutaketin | +0.10 | Bullish on HONA post-spinoff, citing aerospace, defense and discount removal themes. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | HONA | @yasutaketin | +0.55 | Summarizes HONA aerospace infrastructure thesis with revenue, margins and exposure data. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-03 | META | @yasutaketin | -0.35 | Says Meta seems lost in AI after CEO said AI agent development has not accelerated as expected. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @yasutaketin | · | Says even if semis are entering a long-term bear market, rebounds still happen. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @yasutaketin | · | Says semiconductor/neocloud selloff felt overdone and author bought the rebound. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.