Model shadow desk

v6b

EWMA-baseline surprise — reconstructed shadow challenger · SHADOW · benched 06-30, challenger under seat review · does not vote in The Book · all models

Methodology

Uses replay_v3's original v6b scorer: surprise versus an exponentially weighted baseline, scaled by realized volatility and persistence. Its AM history is rebuilt from the current corpus, so it is not live-forward evidence and does not vote in The Book.

replay context · July +18.2% (muted context only; not a live claim)

cum net reconstructed since 07-20
-12.9%
hit rate (picks)
44%
settled sessions
30
settled picks
150
last 5 sessions

Equity curve — top-5 basket, net 40 bps/session

-30%-13%+5%— book (replay)- - SPY2026-07-202026-08-28

This current-corpus reconstruction is date-filtered from the 2026-07-18 re-add boundary (first eligible session 2026-07-20); it is not a frozen live history. SPY dashed.

Trade history — 30 sessions, one row per trade, newest first

sessionedtickersideretstatus
2026-08-31PMASSTSHORTopenPREVIEW
2026-08-31PMOKTASHORTopenPREVIEW
2026-08-31PMANFSHORTopenPREVIEW
2026-08-31PMPURRSHORTopenPREVIEW
2026-08-31PMMRVLSHORTopenPREVIEW
2026-08-28AMDKSLONG+1.7%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-28AMANFSHORT-1.6%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-28AMPURRLONG-8.4%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-28AMMRVLLONG-3.8%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-28AMRBRKLONG-6.3%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-28PMDKSLONG+1.7%PREVIEW
2026-08-28PMRBRKLONG-6.3%PREVIEW
2026-08-28PMMRVLLONG-3.8%PREVIEW
2026-08-28PMPURRLONG-8.4%PREVIEW
2026-08-28PMANFSHORT-1.6%PREVIEW
2026-08-27AMNVDALONG+2.3%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-27AMANFLONG+0.7%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-27AMOKTALONG+4.1%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-27AMCRWDLONG+9.5%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-27AMCRMLONG+9.6%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-27PMCRMLONG+9.6%PREVIEW
2026-08-27PMMRNASHORT+1.0%PREVIEW
2026-08-27PMGRRRLONG-1.6%PREVIEW
2026-08-27PMDKSLONG+2.4%PREVIEW
2026-08-27PMANFLONG+0.7%PREVIEW
2026-08-26AMHIMSSHORT+3.9%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-26AMANFLONG+13.1%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-26AMCRMLLONG+0.1%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-26AMSMTCLONG+7.6%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-26AMDKSSHORT-6.4%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-26PMCRMLLONG+0.1%PREVIEW
2026-08-26PMBESHORT-1.9%PREVIEW
2026-08-26PMNBISSHORT+0.7%PREVIEW
2026-08-26PMSMTCLONG+7.6%PREVIEW
2026-08-26PMDKSSHORT-6.4%PREVIEW
2026-08-25AMMRNASHORT-10.8%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-25AMHIMSSHORT-1.5%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-25AMTEMSHORT-3.2%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-25AMBELONG+1.9%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-25AMDKSSHORT+12.7%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-25PMLITESHORT-3.1%PREVIEW
2026-08-25PMHIMSSHORT-1.5%PREVIEW
2026-08-25PMMRNASHORT-10.8%PREVIEW
2026-08-25PMTEMSHORT-3.2%PREVIEW
2026-08-25PMBELONG+1.9%PREVIEW
2026-08-24AMAAOISHORT+1.6%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-24AMCRDOLONG-0.1%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-24AMASSTLONG+5.2%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-24AMBYNDSHORT+4.1%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-24AMHOODLONG-3.0%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-24PMXOSSHORT+-0.0%PREVIEW
2026-08-24PMCRDOLONG-0.1%PREVIEW
2026-08-24PMASSTLONG+5.2%PREVIEW
2026-08-24PMBYNDSHORT+4.1%PREVIEW
2026-08-24PMHOODLONG-3.0%PREVIEW
2026-08-21AMKEELLONG-5.1%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-21AMWMTSHORT-0.0%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-21AMAMLXSHORT+3.2%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-21AMBYNDLONG+1.9%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-21AMMRNASHORT-9.3%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-21PMWOLFLONG-4.1%PREVIEW
2026-08-21PMWMTSHORT-0.0%PREVIEW
2026-08-21PMPURRSHORT-0.6%PREVIEW
2026-08-21PMBYNDLONG+1.9%PREVIEW
2026-08-21PMMRNASHORT-9.3%PREVIEW
2026-08-20AMPURRLONG+5.4%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-20AMMSTRLONG-0.7%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-20AMBYNDLONG+6.5%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-20AMTEMLONG+8.0%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-20AMMRNALONG-11.2%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-20PMMSTRLONG-0.7%PREVIEW
2026-08-20PMPURRLONG+5.4%PREVIEW
2026-08-20PMBYNDLONG+6.5%PREVIEW
2026-08-20PMTEMLONG+8.0%PREVIEW
2026-08-20PMMRNALONG-11.2%PREVIEW
2026-08-19AMSNDKSHORT+6.7%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-19AMBYNDLONG+11.5%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-19AMNBISSHORT+3.6%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-19AMAXTISHORT+13.1%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-19AMMRNALONG+50.3%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-19PMKEELSHORT-0.6%PREVIEW
2026-08-19PMAAOISHORT+10.1%PREVIEW
2026-08-19PMBYNDLONG+11.5%PREVIEW
2026-08-19PMNBISSHORT+3.6%PREVIEW
2026-08-19PMAXTISHORT+13.1%PREVIEW
2026-08-18AMFNLONG-6.1%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-18AMAEHRSHORT+8.9%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-18AMAMLXLONG+17.4%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-18AMNBISSHORT+7.5%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-18AMAXTILONG-7.3%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-18PMHTZSHORT+1.9%PREVIEW
2026-08-18PMAEHRSHORT+8.9%PREVIEW
2026-08-18PMAXTILONG-7.3%PREVIEW
2026-08-18PMUMACSHORT-7.0%PREVIEW
2026-08-18PMNBISSHORT+7.5%PREVIEW
2026-08-17AMAPPLONG-1.9%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-17AMHTZSHORT+2.3%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-17AMCIFRLONG+3.9%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-17AMAMDLONG-1.6%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-17AMUMACLONG-7.4%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-17PMAAOILONG+1.5%PREVIEW
2026-08-17PMAMDLONG-1.6%PREVIEW
2026-08-17PMAPPLONG-1.9%PREVIEW
2026-08-17PMCIFRLONG+3.9%PREVIEW
2026-08-17PMHTZSHORT+2.3%PREVIEW
2026-08-14AMWDAYLONG-4.1%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-14AMNBISSHORT-7.6%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-14AMHTZSHORT+8.2%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-14AMRDDTLONG+1.5%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-14AMSNDKLONG-0.4%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-14PMAEHRSHORT-0.4%PREVIEW
2026-08-14PMNBISSHORT-7.6%PREVIEW
2026-08-14PMHTZSHORT+8.2%PREVIEW
2026-08-14PMSNDKLONG-0.4%PREVIEW
2026-08-14PMRDDTLONG+1.5%PREVIEW
2026-08-13AMIRENLONG-2.7%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-13AMAXTISHORT-3.0%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-13AMNBISLONG-0.3%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-13AMCOHRLONG-5.1%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-13AMHTZLONG-12.5%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-13PMBELONG+0.1%PREVIEW
2026-08-13PMAXTISHORT-3.0%PREVIEW
2026-08-13PMCOHRLONG-5.1%PREVIEW
2026-08-13PMNBISLONG-0.3%PREVIEW
2026-08-13PMHTZLONG-12.5%PREVIEW
2026-08-12AMAEHRLONG+4.2%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-12AMLITELONG+3.6%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-12AMSMCILONG+7.5%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-12AMNBISLONG+14.7%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-12AMCRWVLONG-0.7%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-12PMUWMCLONG-2.6%PREVIEW
2026-08-12PMAXTISHORT+5.5%PREVIEW
2026-08-12PMLITELONG+3.6%PREVIEW
2026-08-12PMSMCILONG+7.5%PREVIEW
2026-08-12PMCRWVLONG-0.7%PREVIEW
2026-08-11AMCOHRSHORT-1.5%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-11AMHIMSLONG+2.7%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-11AMAAOISHORT-0.3%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-11AMAXTISHORT+1.3%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-11AMRIOTLONG-14.1%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-11PMIRENSHORT+1.1%PREVIEW
2026-08-11PMLITESHORT-0.6%PREVIEW
2026-08-11PMRIOTLONG-14.1%PREVIEW
2026-08-11PMAXTISHORT+1.3%PREVIEW
2026-08-11PMAAOISHORT-0.3%PREVIEW
2026-08-10AMNBISLONG-0.9%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-10AMLITELONG-12.6%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-10AMIRENLONG-6.1%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-10AMCOHRLONG-15.3%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-10AMAXTILONG-17.6%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-10PMCRDOLONG-5.8%PREVIEW
2026-08-10PMCOHRLONG-15.3%PREVIEW
2026-08-10PMCELHLONG+3.5%PREVIEW
2026-08-10PMIRENLONG-6.1%PREVIEW
2026-08-10PMAXTILONG-17.6%PREVIEW
2026-08-07AMNBISSHORT+4.8%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-07AMHTZLONG-7.0%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-07AMAAOILONG-4.8%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-07AMTEAMLONG+2.4%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-07AMTTDSHORT-7.0%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-06AMAEHRSHORT-5.0%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-06AMAAOISHORT-2.5%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-06AMCRWVSHORT+0.8%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-06AMSITMLONG+0.4%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-06AMNBISSHORT+7.6%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-05AMSHOPLONG-3.8%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-05AMAMIXLONG-11.2%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-05AMZETALONG+9.8%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-05AMAMDLONG-0.5%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-05AMALABLONG-8.6%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-05PMAMDLONG-0.5%PREVIEW
2026-08-05PMAXTISHORT-8.2%PREVIEW
2026-08-05PMIRENSHORT+2.8%PREVIEW
2026-08-05PMNBISSHORT+0.4%PREVIEW
2026-08-05PMALABLONG-8.6%PREVIEW
2026-08-04AMLITELONG-0.2%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-04AMCOHRLONG-0.7%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-04AMCRWVLONG+6.4%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-04AMAAOILONG+2.3%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-04AMPLTRLONG+12.2%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-04PMLITESHORT+0.2%PREVIEW
2026-08-04PMNBISSHORT-4.3%PREVIEW
2026-08-04PMPLTRLONG+12.2%PREVIEW
2026-08-04PMAXTISHORT-1.0%PREVIEW
2026-08-04PMIRENSHORT-4.2%PREVIEW
2026-08-03AMRKLBLONG+11.3%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-03AMRBLXSHORT-3.1%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-03AMBESHORT-10.4%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-03AMNBISSHORT-15.8%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-03AMAAOILONG+22.7%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-03PMSLNHLONG+1.7%PREVIEW
2026-08-03PMAAOILONG+22.7%PREVIEW
2026-08-03PMRBLXSHORT-3.1%PREVIEW
2026-08-03PMBESHORT-10.4%PREVIEW
2026-08-03PMNBISSHORT-15.8%PREVIEW
2026-07-31AMRDDTLONG-4.8%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-31AMNBISLONG-5.3%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-31AMAXTILONG-9.5%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-31AMIRENLONG-9.8%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-31AMAMZNLONG+2.5%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-31PMSNDKLONG-12.3%PREVIEW
2026-07-31PMAMZNLONG+2.5%PREVIEW
2026-07-31PMAXTILONG-9.5%PREVIEW
2026-07-31PMNBISLONG-5.3%PREVIEW
2026-07-31PMIRENLONG-9.8%PREVIEW
2026-07-30AMBESHORT-11.2%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-30AMSIMOLONG-1.9%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-30AMHOODLONG-4.8%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-30AMLRCXLONG-6.5%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-30AMMSFTLONG+2.8%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-30PMNBISSHORT-9.4%PREVIEW
2026-07-30PMBESHORT-11.2%PREVIEW
2026-07-30PMCIFRSHORT-14.9%PREVIEW
2026-07-30PMASTSSHORT-6.1%PREVIEW
2026-07-30PMHOODLONG-4.9%PREVIEW
2026-07-29AMCIFRSHORT+14.1%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-29AMSOFILONG-1.6%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-29AMLMNDLONG-3.7%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-29AMSTXLONG-3.1%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-29AMBELONG-10.8%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-29PMAMKRSHORT+7.6%PREVIEW
2026-07-29PMNBISSHORT+13.0%PREVIEW
2026-07-29PMCIFRSHORT+14.1%PREVIEW
2026-07-29PMSTXLONG-3.1%PREVIEW
2026-07-29PMBELONG-10.8%PREVIEW
2026-07-28AMADVBSHORT+9.9%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-28AMSNDKSHORT+6.6%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-28AMNVTSLONG-1.9%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-28AMAPLDLONG-0.7%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-28AMCLSLONG+6.8%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-28PMSNDKSHORT+6.6%PREVIEW
2026-07-28PMNBISSHORT+5.1%PREVIEW
2026-07-28PMCLSLONG+6.8%PREVIEW
2026-07-28PMAPLDLONG-0.7%PREVIEW
2026-07-28PMCIFRSHORT+1.9%PREVIEW
2026-07-27AMAAOISHORT+2.7%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-27AMSKYQSHORT+8.1%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-27AMIBMLONG-0.7%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-27AMADVBSHORT+14.8%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-27AMMXLSHORT+8.1%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-27PMSKYQSHORT+8.1%PREVIEW
2026-07-27PMSNDKSHORT+12.6%PREVIEW
2026-07-27PMNBISSHORT+4.5%PREVIEW
2026-07-27PMIBMLONG-0.7%PREVIEW
2026-07-27PMMXLSHORT+8.2%PREVIEW
2026-07-24AMSKYQLONG-27.5%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-24AMNBISSHORT+14.1%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-24AMHIMSLONG-16.0%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-24AMMXLLONG-13.7%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-24AMINTCLONG-8.0%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-24PMHIMSLONG-16.0%PREVIEW
2026-07-24PMAAOISHORT+8.1%PREVIEW
2026-07-24PMNBISSHORT+14.1%PREVIEW
2026-07-24PMMXLLONG-13.7%PREVIEW
2026-07-24PMINTCLONG-8.0%PREVIEW
2026-07-23AMGOOGLLONG-1.1%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-23AMAAOISHORT-3.2%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-23AMGOOGLONG-1.0%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-23AMNOWLONG-8.1%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-23AMTSLASHORT+6.4%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-23PMNOWLONG-8.1%PREVIEW
2026-07-23PMGRRRSHORT-1.2%PREVIEW
2026-07-23PMNBISSHORT-3.1%PREVIEW
2026-07-23PMAAOISHORT-3.2%PREVIEW
2026-07-23PMWYFISHORT+1.2%PREVIEW
2026-07-22AMIRENSHORT-2.4%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-22AMRKLBLONG-1.0%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-22AMGRRRSHORT-1.1%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-22AMAAOILONG-3.9%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-22AMSMCILONG+5.5%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-22PMSMCILONG+5.8%PREVIEW
2026-07-22PMRKLBLONG-1.0%PREVIEW
2026-07-22PMATAISHORT-0.4%PREVIEW
2026-07-22PMGRRRSHORT-1.1%PREVIEW
2026-07-22PMIRENSHORT-2.4%PREVIEW
2026-07-21AMNUAILONG+13.0%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-21AMBIYASHORT-3.7%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-21AMAAOISHORT-10.7%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-21AMIRENLONG+0.9%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-21AMAMCLONG-9.1%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-21PMAMCLONG-9.1%PREVIEW
2026-07-21PMSDOTSHORT+11.9%PREVIEW
2026-07-21PMBIYASHORT-3.7%PREVIEW
2026-07-21PMIRENLONG+0.9%PREVIEW
2026-07-21PMAAOISHORT-10.7%PREVIEW
2026-07-20AMATAISHORT-0.4%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-20AMWYFILONG+3.2%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-20AMGRRRLONG-0.9%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-20AMNBISLONG-2.3%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-20AMIRENLONG+10.5%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-20PMGRRRLONG-0.9%PREVIEW
2026-07-20PMATAISHORT-0.4%PREVIEW
2026-07-20PMWYFILONG+3.2%PREVIEW
2026-07-20PMIRENLONG+10.5%PREVIEW
2026-07-20PMNBISLONG-2.3%PREVIEW

net = equal-weight mean of settled picks − 40 bps. L/S badge = side; · = not yet settled. PM rows are frozen evening previews of the same session (audit trail), not double-counted in the stats.