Ticker brief · 2026-08-16
MNDY MONDAY.COM LTD
Strong quarter collides with deceleration as software rebound emerges
Technology · Software
Lean: mixedlast close
$100.71
1 day
+1.2%
14 days
+15.1%
mkt cap
$4.1B
signals 14d
15
authors 14d
13
crowd 14d
+1.0σ
MNDY is mixed: scored discretionary voices lean modestly bullish, while earnings-news accounts emphasize the Q3 growth slowdown and weaker cash-flow outlook. The late-week shift was toward a broader SaaS rebound, including a $109 objective and acquisition-target speculation. The 10–12% decline remained inside the 21.61% implied earnings move, leaving a tactical recovery setup without resolving the fundamental de-rating.
BULL CAMP
The bull case rests on a clean Q2 beat, 22% revenue growth, expanding enterprise adoption, backlog strength, and accelerating AI monetization. Bulls argue cautious guidance reflects timing and conservatism rather than demand impairment.
Key voices@schaeffersHIGHC+3.18@AlphaSenseIncMEDIUM-HIGHB+1.04@pradeeepkMEDIUMB+1.36@fundmyfundMEDIUMB-1.58@everytimeicashMEDIUMB+0.23
“Guidance appears conservative, leaving room for renewed growth acceleration.”— @pradeeepk · tweet ↗
BEAR / SKEPTIC
The bear case centers on Q3 revenue guidance below consensus, implied growth slowing from 22% to 16–17%, weaker blended retention, and deteriorating free-cash-flow performance. A valuation call for $60-$69 implies the earnings decline has not completed the reset.
Key voices@everytimeicashMEDIUMB+0.23@wallstengineHIGHB-1.90@momoblog0214MEDIUM-HIGHC+1.30@ttvresearchMEDIUMC+0.30
“Growth slows from 22% to 16–17%, explaining the negative post-earnings reaction.”— @everytimeicash · tweet ↗
Hypotheses15direction · basis · magnitude · supporters — NEW = first seen this week
▲Monday.com’s Q2 beat, 22% revenue growth, and improved profitability demonstrate resilient execution despite the post-earnings selloff.
@schaeffersHIGHC+3.185s@EmmanuelInvestLOW-MEDIUMC-1.111s@aflat0nMEDIUMC-1.491s@ondrejsluneckoMEDIUMC+0.201s@wallstengineHIGHB-1.901s@mukundMEDIUM-HIGHA-0.621s · insight
▼Below-consensus Q3 guidance signals growth deceleration from 22% toward 16–17%, warranting a material valuation reset.
@everytimeicashMEDIUMB+0.233s · insight@bullishchartLOW-MEDIUMC-2.312s@IngJuanPa7LOW-MEDIUMB-1.611s · insight@OpenOutcrierMEDIUM-HIGHC1s@ttvresearchMEDIUMC+0.301s@momoblog0214MEDIUM-HIGHC+1.301s+1 more
▲Large-customer growth and expanding backlog validate Monday.com’s upmarket strategy and indicate timing issues rather than weakening demand.
@everytimeicashMEDIUMB+0.232s · insight@schaeffersHIGHC+3.183s
▲Rapid AI ARR growth, agent consumption, and new product pricing create a meaningful incremental growth vector for Monday.com.
@everytimeicashMEDIUMB+0.231s · insight@bullishchartLOW-MEDIUMC-2.311s@AlphaSenseIncMEDIUM-HIGHB+1.041s · insight@schaeffersHIGHC+3.181s
▼Weak blended net-dollar retention relative to large-customer cohorts exposes a meaningful vulnerability in Monday.com’s underlying customer economics.
@everytimeicashMEDIUMB+0.231s · insight
▼Material year-over-year free-cash-flow margin deterioration and weak FY cash-flow guidance undermine the quality of reported operating progress.
@everytimeicashMEDIUMB+0.231s · insight@wallstengineHIGHB-1.901s
▲Support around the $78–$83 bullish imbalance and recovery from session lows create a near-term continuation setup.
▲Management’s cautious outlook is conservative rather than structural, creating room for consolidation followed by renewed growth acceleration.
@IPODaveMEDIUM-HIGHB+1.631s · insight@pradeeepkMEDIUMB+1.361s · insight
▼Despite the revenue beat, Monday.com’s appropriate valuation is only $60-$69, implying further downside after the earnings decline.
@mukundMEDIUM-HIGHA-0.621s · insight
▲Organizational restructuring and full commitment to the AI Work Platform sharpen Monday.com’s strategic focus around artificial intelligence.
@schaeffersHIGHC+3.181s
▲Jefferies raising its target to $95 from $80 modestly improves recognized upside while its Hold rating limits conviction.
@AIStockSavvyMEDIUMC-1.791s
▲Strength across SaaS and demand for beaten-down quality software can lift Monday.com through a broader sector rebound.
@Volume_StocksMEDIUMC-3.241s@fundmyfundMEDIUMB-1.581s · insight
◆A late-week promotional call targets $109 for MNDY without an accompanying fundamental or technical justification.
@Volume_StocksMEDIUMC-3.241s
◆Beaten-down recurring-revenue software companies including Monday.com could become acquisition targets, creating event-driven upside independent of current guidance.
@Sam_BadawiMEDIUM-HIGHC-1.461s
◆Disappointing MNDY results could redirect capital from software toward semiconductor equipment, limiting near-term demand for the shares.
@ScroogeCapMEDIUMB+1.341s · insight
Sellside activity1
Jefferies pt_raise PT 95 (from 80)Jefferies maintained Hold while raising its price target to $95 from $80.
News / data points5discrete events + data quoted by authors
@aflat0nMEDIUMC-1.49
Q2 EPS reached $1.48 versus $1.11, while revenue was $364.6M versus $355.5M.
@everytimeicashMEDIUMB+0.23
The Q3 guidance midpoint was 1% below consensus, while FY26 guidance remained roughly in line.
@schaeffersHIGHC+3.18
Revenue grew 22% and non-GAAP operating income reached a record.
@momoblog0214MEDIUM-HIGHC+1.30
MNDY beat Q2 revenue and EPS estimates but guided Q3 below consensus, sending shares down 12%.
@schaeffersHIGHC+3.18
Options priced a 21.61% earnings move for MNDY.
Desk readconvergence assessment
The market agrees that Q2 execution was solid but remains divided over whether weaker guidance reflects timing or genuine deceleration. Bullish scored voices such as @pradeeepk and @fundmyfund have stronger recent trader scores, while several prominent bearish relays, including @wallstengine, have cold hands; however, the bear camp is anchored by objective guidance, retention, and cash-flow data. Evidence that backlog and AI usage convert into renewed growth while retention and free-cash-flow margins stabilize would decisively strengthen the bull view.
Options inteloptions-surface reads · latest available day per source
| metric | reading | context |
|---|---|---|
| IV — ATM 30d | 60% mid · 28 pctile own 1y | IV/HV 0.74× |
| Skew — 25Δ RR 30d | +0.012 86 pctile own 1y | calls bid vs puts (call skew rich) |
| Net dealer OI (NDOI) | +0.95 elevated | 5-session Δ +1.20 (as of 2026-07-06) |
| OI alarm | quiet | last alarm 2026-05-12 (z=2.1) |
Sentiment — last 14 days
daily mean sentiment, 2026-08-17 → 2026-08-28 · now -0.25 (−1 bearish … +1 bullish)
Who spoke13
| author | grade | trader score | signals | mean sent |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| @aristotlegrowth | C | +0.51 | 2 | +0.72 |
| @GnT_Trades | C | +1.70 | 2 | +0.58 |
| @jom2jp | C | -1.83 | 1 | +0.60 |
| @ClassicRoy | C | -1.52 | 1 | +0.00 |
| @SteveDJacobs | C | -1.22 | 1 | -0.10 |
| @SergeyCYW | B | +0.32 | 1 | -0.70 |
| @_inpractise | B | -0.30 | 1 | -0.30 |
| @OracleNYSE | C | -0.08 | 1 | +0.45 |
| @TheTranscript_ | B | +2.48 | 1 | +0.60 |
| @UltimateTrad8r | C | +0.49 | 1 | -0.55 |
| @Remzztrades | C | +0.43 | 1 | +0.85 |
| @cperruna | B | -0.20 | 1 | +0.25 |
| @invertiramateur | B | +0.46 | 1 | -0.25 |
Recent signals15of 15 in 14d — receipts included
| date (PT) | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | @invertiramateur | -0.25 | Bought 3 HIMS shares at $29 and expects $41 soon; may sell MNDY to add favored names. — Reports a new HIMS purchase, bullish target and thesis, while considering selling MNDY. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | @aristotlegrowth | +0.75 | Author says prior HUBS and MNDY entries generated a $13K gain. | +1.2% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | @GnT_Trades | +0.60 | MNDY is explicitly described as producing a strong breakout. | +1.2% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | @cperruna | +0.25 | Questions whether MNDY can recover its 200DMA, begin stage 2, and fill the gap near $240. | +8.0% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-24 | @Remzztrades | +0.85 | Buy MNDY Sep 18 calls through $95, targeting $100 then $109; stop below $90. — Provides a conditional bullish MNDY call trade with entries, targets and stop. | +6.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-24 | @GnT_Trades | +0.55 | MNDY shows higher lows and could gain momentum through 100 if software stays firm. | +6.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-22 | @UltimateTrad8r | -0.55 | Discloses underwater bag positions in MNDY, TTD, and to a lesser extent ADBE. | +11.0% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-20 | @TheTranscript_ | +0.60 | Monday reports strong growth and record net additions among large enterprise customer cohorts. | +10.3% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-20 | @OracleNYSE | +0.45 | Monday.com is rebuilding its core platform around Anthropic's Claude AI agents. | +10.3% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-20 | @_inpractise | -0.30 | Questions Monday.com's defensibility when customers move data into Claude. | +10.3% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-19 | @SergeyCYW | -0.70 | Labels six software companies fragile to AI due to replaceable workflows and limited infrastructure. | +10.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-18 | @SteveDJacobs | -0.10 | Wednesday watchlist is broadly cautious because several names are below their 200-day moving averages. | +14.4% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-18 | @aristotlegrowth | +0.70 | Names MNDY and HUBS January 2028 call options as the author's new favorite LEAPS. | +14.4% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-17 | @ClassicRoy | +0.00 | Lists the first six names with decreasing options implied volatility. | +20.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-17 | @jom2jp | +0.60 | Monday.com Q2 revenue and operating profit posted strong growth. | +20.9% | tweet ↗ |
“Since then” = price move from the close on the signal's date (PT) to the latest close — what happened after they said it, not a backtest. A — means no trading session has closed since the signal yet. Sentiment is our extracted per-tweet score, −1…+1.