Author
@earnings_watch earnings_watch
grade Bx.com/earnings_watch ↗
Disciplined earnings-volatility quant trading implied-vs-realized moves with explicit base rates
Runs daily earnings sessions pricing options-implied moves a
trader score
-0.51
hit rate
55%
mean α
-0.35%
signals 14d
88
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 20 scored bets: 55% hit rate, -0.35% mean alpha, trader score -0.51. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -1.6% since posting (mean over 60 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | · | @earnings_watch | · | Explains how ATM straddles define implied earnings moves and trading hurdles. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | NOC | @earnings_watch | +0.00 | Publishes an October 19 earnings calendar organized by implied move; first six retained. | +6.1% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | ZION | @earnings_watch | +0.00 | Publishes an October 19 earnings calendar organized by implied move; first six retained. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | STLD | @earnings_watch | +0.00 | Publishes an October 19 earnings calendar organized by implied move; first six retained. | +0.4% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | GE | @earnings_watch | +0.00 | Publishes an October 19 earnings calendar organized by implied move; first six retained. | -9.0% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | RTX | @earnings_watch | +0.00 | Publishes an October 19 earnings calendar organized by implied move; first six retained. | -1.5% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-16 | GM | @earnings_watch | +0.00 | Publishes an October 19 earnings calendar organized by implied move; first six retained. | -9.6% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | TFC | @earnings_watch | -0.15 | Compares TFC's 7.7% implied move with eight much smaller historical earnings reactions. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | JBHT | @earnings_watch | +0.10 | Shows JBHT historically exceeded its 6.1% implied move in five of seven observations. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | CNS | @earnings_watch | +0.00 | Compares earnings implied moves with historical reaction ranges; first six tickers retained. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | SFNC | @earnings_watch | +0.00 | Compares earnings implied moves with historical reaction ranges; first six tickers retained. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | JBHT | @earnings_watch | +0.10 | Compares earnings implied moves with historical reaction ranges; first six tickers retained. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | INDB | @earnings_watch | +0.00 | Compares earnings implied moves with historical reaction ranges; first six tickers retained. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | IBKR | @earnings_watch | +0.00 | Compares earnings implied moves with historical reaction ranges; first six tickers retained. | -6.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | AA | @earnings_watch | +0.00 | Compares earnings implied moves with historical reaction ranges; first six tickers retained. | -6.2% | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.