Author
@earnings_watch earnings_watch
grade Bx.com/earnings_watch ↗
Disciplined earnings-volatility quant trading implied-vs-realized moves with explicit base rates
Runs daily earnings sessions pricing options-implied moves a
trader score
-1.99
hit rate
35%
mean α
-1.89%
signals 14d
107
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 20 scored bets: 35% hit rate, -1.89% mean alpha, trader score -1.99. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -0.0% since posting (mean over 94 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | NVDA | @earnings_watch | +0.00 | Explains a risk-first framework for evaluating NVDA earnings option structures and IV crush. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | AFRM | @earnings_watch | +0.30 | Shows extreme front IV but a breakeven below AFRM's recent median earnings move. | +0.3% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | MRVL | @earnings_watch | +0.35 | Finds MRVL's 10.4% implied move low versus its recent earnings-move distribution. | -10.3% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | AFRM | @earnings_watch | +0.25 | Compares implied earnings moves with two-year realized averages across six names. | +0.3% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | ADSK | @earnings_watch | +0.00 | Compares implied earnings moves with two-year realized averages across six names. | -3.7% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | MRVL | @earnings_watch | +0.25 | Compares implied earnings moves with two-year realized averages across six names. | -10.3% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | WDAY | @earnings_watch | +0.25 | Compares implied earnings moves with two-year realized averages across six names. | +5.8% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | MNSO | @earnings_watch | +0.00 | Compares implied earnings moves with two-year realized averages across six names. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | ULTA | @earnings_watch | +0.25 | Compares implied earnings moves with two-year realized averages across six names. | -4.2% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | NVDA | @earnings_watch | +0.35 | Places Nvidia's 7% post-earnings move near the recent 80th percentile but normal long term. | -4.6% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | NVDA | @earnings_watch | +0.10 | Reports that Nvidia earnings volatility sellers won after the event. | +3.8% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | NVDA | @earnings_watch | +0.00 | Compares Nvidia's 5.8% implied earnings move with historical moves. | +3.8% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | NVDA | @earnings_watch | +0.00 | Promotes analysis of Nvidia's implied move, short-vol possibilities and momentum setup. | +3.8% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | NVDA | @earnings_watch | +0.00 | Quantifies an 8% gap-fill probability and 75% post-earnings follow-through score. | +3.8% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | NVDA | @earnings_watch | +0.00 | Compares Nvidia's priced move with its five-year average and median. | +3.8% | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.