Author · brief 2026-06-22

@JonahLupton JonahLupton

grade Ax.com/JonahLupton ↗

High-conviction growth PM modeling under-covered small/mid-cap compounders with real-time tickered calls

Builds and shares detailed multi-year fundamental models and

trader score
+1.14
hit rate
55%
mean α
+0.86%
signals 14d
84

Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.

Their picks, scored

Across their last 20 scored bets: 55% hit rate, +0.86% mean alpha, trader score +1.14. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -1.8% since posting (mean over 68 mentions with price data).

Long concentrated in APP, HIMS, RDDT and growth hardware

JonahLupton is heavily long growth equities, with explicit concentration in APP, HIMS, RDDT, TMDX, HROW, AAOI, ALAB, and CRDO. His distinctive read is that APP can rerate on GA launch economics, RDDT forecasts understate AI data licensing upside, and HIMS has large personalized healthcare and peptide revenue optionality. Late-window activity was mostly disclosure of top and next-largest holdings rather than directional trading, with no explicit trims or exits in the provided signals.

Themes5analyst read · 2026-06-22
▲Adtech and social platform rerating
bullconsistent13 signals
APPRDDTSPYQQQ
▲Personalized healthcare and organ transplant growth
bullintensifying8 signals
HIMSTMDX
⚠ 50% of theme signals are HIMS — flag pump risk
▲AI infrastructure hardware and memory holdings
bullconsistent17 signals
AAOIALABCRDODRAMHYNIXFPSSPCX
▲Fund holding disclosures and recovery setups
bullintensifying9 signals
HROWDXYZONDSNUMPMELI
⚠ 44% of theme signals are HROW — flag pump risk
◆Media M&A and macro backdrop
mixedconsistent2 signals
ROKUFOX
⚠ 50% of theme signals are ROKU — flag pump risk
Direction this week

Conviction sits in disclosed long books rather than fresh trading calls, led by APP, HIMS, RDDT and a hardware basket including AAOI, ALAB and CRDO. The week added a broad disclosure of top and next-largest fund holdings, with no explicit trims, exits or short initiations in the provided signals. Concentration risk is highest in single-name APP and HIMS disclosures and the RDDT platform thesis, while the ROKU/FOX item is a reported M&A news break rather than a portfolio action.

Position disclosures8skin in the game
APP Largest disclosed position with bullish fundamentals, valuation and GA launch thesis held
HIMS Disclosed ownership tied to bullish 2030 peptide revenue market-share thesis held
DXYZ Small fund position disclosed as bullish proxy after a 62% pullback held
HROW Fund top-position disclosure with forward estimates held
AAOI Fund top-position disclosure with forward estimates held
ALAB Fund top-position disclosure with forward estimates held
CRDO Fund top-position disclosure with forward estimates held
MELI Disclosed among top positions with positive company view held
Best hypotheses5their highest-scoring claims in our index
▲CRDO's Q4 beat and above-consensus Q1 guide validate a still-accelerating growth and margin expansion story.
bullHIGH6 co-supporters
▼CrowdStrike's valuation is too stretched for its growth profile, so even solid execution leaves material de-rating risk.
bearHIGH8 co-supporters
▼The June selloff marked a severe XLK downside break, with rare losses confirming abrupt tech leadership failure.
bearHIGH6 co-supporters
▲RDDT remains undervalued given rapid revenue growth, high gross margins, free cash flow, and EPS acceleration.
bullHIGH6 co-supporters
▲Potential S&P 500 inclusion could force index buying and produce a near-term RDDT price pop.
bullHIGH7 co-supporters
Recent signals15receipts included
date (PT)tickerauthorsentwhat they saidsince thenreceipt
2026-07-02META@JonahLupton-0.35Negative comment directed at Mark Zuckerberg, implying hostility toward Meta leadership.—
2026-07-01SOXX@JonahLupton-0.30Quantifies rare one-day divergence between semis and software.-5.6%
2026-07-01IGV@JonahLupton+0.25Quantifies rare one-day divergence between semis and software.+0.2%
2026-07-01RDDT@JonahLupton+0.60Chart looks strong, pushing through resistance with gap fill target at 213.-1.6%
2026-07-01MU@JonahLupton+0.45Expects a future announcement benefiting MU tied to memory import controls or taxes.-5.5%
2026-07-01DELL@JonahLupton+0.10Expects a future announcement benefiting MU tied to memory import controls or taxes.-7.3%
2026-07-01RDDT@JonahLupton+0.35Reports rumors of new or expanded data licensing deal with AI firms.-1.6%
2026-07-01APP@JonahLupton+0.40Discloses fund positions, 6% NBIS add, and strong long-term bullishness.-6.7%
2026-07-01META@JonahLupton-0.10Discloses fund positions, 6% NBIS add, and strong long-term bullishness.-4.9%
2026-07-01NBIS@JonahLupton+0.75Discloses fund positions, 6% NBIS add, and strong long-term bullishness.-5.9%
2026-07-01RDDT@JonahLupton+0.40Discloses fund positions, 6% NBIS add, and strong long-term bullishness.-1.6%
2026-07-01HIMS@JonahLupton+0.40Discloses fund positions, 6% NBIS add, and strong long-term bullishness.-2.0%
2026-07-01TMDX@JonahLupton+0.40Discloses fund positions, 6% NBIS add, and strong long-term bullishness.+1.5%
2026-07-01HIMS@JonahLupton+0.65Says HIMS chart is strong and could rally another 20-30% before earnings.-2.0%
2026-07-01HIMS@JonahLupton+0.20Says a linked item is a must-watch for HIMS shareholders.-2.0%

Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.