Author
@kashyap286 kashyap286
grade Bx.com/kashyap286 ↗
Austrian-leaning macro bear dissecting AI bubble, Fed plumbing, and currency regimes
Posts dense macro and contrarian commentary, mostly in repli
trader score
-0.10
hit rate
55%
mean α
-0.06%
signals 14d
66
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 20 scored bets: 55% hit rate, -0.06% mean alpha, trader score -0.10. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved +0.9% since posting (mean over 23 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | · | @kashyap286 | · | Uses narrowing breadth to identify the late stage of a long bull market. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | · | @kashyap286 | · | Challenges the AI-bull thesis by distinguishing information from durable knowledge and value. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | NVDA | @kashyap286 | -0.55 | Alleges circular financing in which SPV investments return to Nvidia as revenue. | -4.6% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | CRWV | @kashyap286 | -0.45 | Alleges circular financing in which SPV investments return to Nvidia as revenue. | -3.0% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | · | @kashyap286 | · | Argues data-center bans will accelerate activation of idle assets, but context is incomplete. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | MSTR | @kashyap286 | -0.20 | Invokes the prior claim that MSTR functioned as Bitcoin's central bank skeptically. | +3.3% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | NVDA | @kashyap286 | -0.15 | Pushes back on a manufacturing comparison by noting Nvidia does not fabricate its chips. | +3.8% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | NVDA | @kashyap286 | -0.75 | Warns Nvidia's off-balance-sheet obligations have grown rapidly to unprecedented scale. | +3.8% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | NVDA | @kashyap286 | -0.90 | Claims Nvidia cannot meet $530.5B of obligations given $22.4B cash and customer guarantees. | +3.8% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | NVDA | @kashyap286 | -0.75 | Says Nvidia is making unsustainable promises while taking on increasing debt. | +3.8% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-26 | · | @kashyap286 | · | Mocks a $30T AI market estimate as mathematically implausible | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | · | @kashyap286 | · | Says a nominal crack-up boom is possible but real performance should be measured in gold. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | · | @kashyap286 | · | States that stock-market performance does not reflect the underlying economy. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | · | @kashyap286 | · | Sarcastically rejects claims that inflation is absent or merely transitory. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-25 | · | @kashyap286 | · | States a value-oriented preference for buying cheap assets without naming them. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.