@MrTopStep MrTopStep
Index-futures trader fusing market-profile flow mechanics with a macro/geopolitical overlay
Runs a daily futures game plan and trading room: morning mac
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.
Across their last 20 scored bets: 30% hit rate, -1.15% mean alpha, trader score -2.01. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -1.3% since posting (mean over 87 mentions with price data).
MrTopStep is primarily trading index futures and event-driven flow, with disclosed long ES/NQ exposure, short CL exposure, and a forward ES target near 7600. The distinctive read is less single-name fundamental work and more market-structure timing: quad-witching, passive index rebalances, MOC imbalances, and options-expiration pressure. Late-week posture turned more tactical-bullish on ES despite repeatedly flagging historically negative witching and large sell-imbalance risk.
Conviction is concentrated in index futures, especially ES, while the author also highlights witching-related downside seasonality and large sell imbalances. He disclosed long ES/NQ and short CL, then made a specific bullish ES 7600 call late in the window. Single-stock content is mostly event-flow oriented, with pump-risk concentration around SPCX options, valuation, and passive-buying headlines.
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | · | @MrTopStep | · | Headline says gas prices fall, nuclear surges, and jobs report tests America. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | GS | @MrTopStep | +0.00 | Links Goldman discussion on how AI may impact the labor market. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @MrTopStep | · | Reports total exchange imbalance as buy $15 billion. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | · | @MrTopStep | · | Reports 3:50 buy imbalance of $11.5B NASDAQ and $2B NYSE. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | BOA | @MrTopStep | +0.00 | Video title says buy stocks, not the market; ticker formatting is ambiguous. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | MU | @MrTopStep | -0.45 | MU hit a high and then fell sharply intraday. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-02 | TSLA | @MrTopStep | -0.30 | Says TSLA is not enjoying the holiday, implying weak price action. | — | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | META | @MrTopStep | +0.25 | Bloomberg Tech headline says Meta will sell excess AI compute via cloud business. | -4.9% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @MrTopStep | · | Reports Nasdaq and S&P buy program dollar amounts. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @MrTopStep | · | Warns something crazy may come after prior ES drop and rally. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | · | @MrTopStep | · | Suggests trading less around July 4 holiday due to thin screens. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | NVDA | @MrTopStep | +0.25 | NVDA and AVGO catching a bid intraday. | -1.4% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | AVGO | @MrTopStep | +0.25 | NVDA and AVGO catching a bid intraday. | -2.4% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | SPCX | @MrTopStep | -0.35 | INTC, SPCX, and MU underperforming after prior day's markup. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-07-01 | MU | @MrTopStep | -0.35 | INTC, SPCX, and MU underperforming after prior day's markup. | -5.5% | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.