Author
@that1618guy that1618guy
grade Bx.com/that1618guy ↗
Crypto momentum trader running homemade regime/positioning models with falsifiable, disclosed calls
Trades and tracks crypto and crypto-adjacent equities, publi
trader score
-0.70
hit rate
45%
mean α
-0.33%
signals 14d
93
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 20 scored bets: 45% hit rate, -0.33% mean alpha, trader score -0.70. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -5.1% since posting (mean over 15 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | V4 | @that1618guy | +0.45 | Expresses excitement about a future Robinhood ecosystem and V4 collaboration. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @that1618guy | · | Expresses a broad preference for persistent bullishness over bearishness. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | · | @that1618guy | · | Expresses a broad preference for persistent bullishness over bearishness. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | BTC | @that1618guy | +0.60 | Forecasts BTC mean reversion higher over coming weeks based on return statistics and a weekly higher-low thesis. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | BUN | @that1618guy | +0.80 | Presents a strongly bullish long-term thesis for BUN based on product-market fit and a path to revenue. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | BTC | @that1618guy | +0.75 | Pre-position now before BTC rallies above $88,000 and liquidity returns. — Advocates positioning before a projected BTC rally rather than chasing later. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | PRIORS | @that1618guy | +0.75 | Gives a bullish future-oriented thesis for PRIORS based on its active team and product utility. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-15 | V4 | @that1618guy | +0.75 | Entering V4 now. — Announces a new V4 entry, though the ticker is somewhat ambiguous. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @that1618guy | · | Acknowledges holding unspecified positions while speaking negatively about them. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | ENA | @that1618guy | -0.15 | Says ENA is retesting its daily 55 EMA deeper within a marked support zone. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | LIT | @that1618guy | +0.80 | Starting to add back to the LIT position. — Explicitly states forward intent to rebuild an existing LIT position. | -8.6% | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | BTC | @that1618guy | +0.35 | Maintains BTC's weekly uptrend thesis, expects an 80k bounce and identifies 76k if support fails. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @that1618guy | · | States that AgenticFi infrastructure is being built, without technical or market detail. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | · | @that1618guy | · | Model metric remains weak and vulnerable to a regime reversal below the 0.57 durability line. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-10-14 | BTC | @that1618guy | +0.40 | Game-theory model identifies an early cooperation regime with back-loaded returns and a possible uptrend in three weeks. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.