Author
@TheStalwart TheStalwart
grade Ax.com/TheStalwart ↗
Bloomberg macro commentator dissecting AI-compute economics, inflation mechanics and rates
Real-time macro commentary and original framework-building,
trader score
-1.44
hit rate
35%
mean α
-1.63%
signals 14d
77
Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY.
Their picks, scored
Across their last 20 scored bets: 35% hit rate, -1.63% mean alpha, trader score -1.44. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -3.3% since posting (mean over 6 mentions with price data).
Recent signals15receipts included
| date (PT) | ticker | author | sent | what they said | since then | receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | · | @TheStalwart | · | Newsletter distinguishes Fed forward guidance from its reaction function. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @TheStalwart | · | Reports Chicago Fed President Goolsbee is increasingly worried about an overheating economy. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @TheStalwart | · | Says Bessent's 30-year bond purchases are profitable after the move. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @TheStalwart | · | Reports the 30-year yield falling after a more-hawkish-than-expected speech. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @TheStalwart | · | Infers higher rate risk from inflation concerns and Warsh saying policy is not restrictive. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @TheStalwart | · | Notes Warsh devoted substantial remarks to AI token pricing and value distribution. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @TheStalwart | · | Relays Warsh's view that AI contributes to a historical hinge point. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-28 | · | @TheStalwart | · | Reports Warsh saying inflation is the Federal Reserve's focus. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | BTC | @TheStalwart | -0.20 | Author argues mining difficulty adjusts to price declines but prolonged declines threaten Bitcoin. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | · | @TheStalwart | · | Pre-IPO retail speculation is used sarcastically to argue monetary policy is too loose. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | · | @TheStalwart | · | Author claims data centers can exert downward pressure on prices. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | · | @TheStalwart | · | Author argues central-bank independence depends on broader political stability. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | · | @TheStalwart | · | Author argues a reported investigation dynamic has almost no market awareness. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | · | @TheStalwart | · | Schmid reports never seeing corporate investment plans change because interest rates changed. | · | tweet ↗ |
| 2026-08-27 | · | @TheStalwart | · | Author says AI evaluation reports increase confidence in an emerging industry bottleneck. | · | tweet ↗ |
Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.