Model shadow desk

v9

commitment-only surprise (CD+PD) — reconstructed shadow challenger · SHADOW · benched 06-30, challenger under seat review · does not vote in The Book · all models

Methodology

Uses replay_v3's original commitment-only v9 scorer over CALL_DIRECTIONAL and POSITION_DISCLOSURE flow. Its AM history is rebuilt from the current corpus, so it is not live-forward evidence and does not vote in The Book.

replay context · July +10.8% (muted context only; not a live claim)

cum net reconstructed since 07-20
+21.8%
hit rate (picks)
55%
settled sessions
30
settled picks
150
last 5 sessions

Equity curve — top-5 basket, net 40 bps/session

-2%+15%+32%— book (replay)- - SPY2026-07-202026-08-28

This current-corpus reconstruction is date-filtered from the 2026-07-18 re-add boundary (first eligible session 2026-07-20); it is not a frozen live history. SPY dashed.

Trade history — 30 sessions, one row per trade, newest first

sessionedtickersideretstatus
2026-08-31PMIRENLONGopenPREVIEW
2026-08-31PMNVDASHORTopenPREVIEW
2026-08-31PMMRVLLONGopenPREVIEW
2026-08-31PMMSTRSHORTopenPREVIEW
2026-08-31PMMRNASHORTopenPREVIEW
2026-08-28AMMRVLLONG-3.8%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-28AMRBRKLONG-6.3%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-28AMASSTLONG-3.0%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-28AMHOODSHORT+4.1%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-28AMPURRLONG-8.4%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-28PMNOWLONG+4.5%PREVIEW
2026-08-28PMASSTLONG-3.0%PREVIEW
2026-08-28PMNBISSHORT+1.3%PREVIEW
2026-08-28PMHOODSHORT+4.1%PREVIEW
2026-08-28PMPURRLONG-8.4%PREVIEW
2026-08-27AMHOODSHORT+0.8%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-27AMGRRRLONG-1.6%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-27AMMSTRSHORT-8.4%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-27AMMRNASHORT+1.0%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-27AMNVDALONG+2.3%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-27PMNVDALONG+2.3%PREVIEW
2026-08-27PMMUSHORT+3.3%PREVIEW
2026-08-27PMSNDKSHORT+4.2%PREVIEW
2026-08-27PMNBISSHORT+2.4%PREVIEW
2026-08-27PMMRNASHORT+1.0%PREVIEW
2026-08-26AMTEMLONG+1.7%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-26AMMSTRSHORT+0.1%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-26AMMUSHORT-1.4%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-26AMSNDKSHORT-3.0%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-26AMNBISSHORT+0.7%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-26PMHOODSHORT+1.5%PREVIEW
2026-08-26PMTEMLONG+1.7%PREVIEW
2026-08-26PMMSTRSHORT+0.1%PREVIEW
2026-08-26PMMUSHORT-1.4%PREVIEW
2026-08-26PMNBISSHORT+0.7%PREVIEW
2026-08-25AMAAOILONG+1.2%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-25AMMRNALONG+10.8%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-25AMBELONG+1.9%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-25AMSNDKSHORT+3.5%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-25AMNBISSHORT-1.9%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-25PMMRNALONG+10.8%PREVIEW
2026-08-25PMSNDKSHORT+3.5%PREVIEW
2026-08-25PMMUSHORT-0.4%PREVIEW
2026-08-25PMBELONG+1.9%PREVIEW
2026-08-25PMNBISSHORT-1.9%PREVIEW
2026-08-24AMHOODLONG-3.0%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-24AMSNDKSHORT+0.0%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-24AMCRWVSHORT-1.3%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-24AMNBISSHORT+0.1%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-24AMMRNALONG-2.7%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-24PMHOODLONG-3.0%PREVIEW
2026-08-24PMSNDKSHORT+0.0%PREVIEW
2026-08-24PMCRWVSHORT-1.3%PREVIEW
2026-08-24PMNBISSHORT+0.1%PREVIEW
2026-08-24PMMRNALONG-2.7%PREVIEW
2026-08-21AMIRENSHORT+4.8%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-21AMCRWVSHORT+2.9%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-21AMSNDKSHORT+0.5%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-21AMMRNASHORT-9.3%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-21AMNBISSHORT+3.3%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-21PMMUSHORT+2.3%PREVIEW
2026-08-21PMAAOISHORT+3.5%PREVIEW
2026-08-21PMSNDKSHORT+0.5%PREVIEW
2026-08-21PMMRNASHORT-9.3%PREVIEW
2026-08-21PMNBISSHORT+3.3%PREVIEW
2026-08-20AMSNDKSHORT-2.0%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-20AMTEMLONG+8.0%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-20AMAAOISHORT-5.9%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-20AMNBISSHORT+1.3%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-20AMMRNALONG-11.2%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-20PMMUSHORT-4.2%PREVIEW
2026-08-20PMTEMLONG+8.0%PREVIEW
2026-08-20PMSNDKSHORT-2.0%PREVIEW
2026-08-20PMNBISSHORT+1.3%PREVIEW
2026-08-20PMMRNALONG-11.2%PREVIEW
2026-08-19AMIRENSHORT-3.6%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-19AMMRNALONG+50.3%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-19AMAAOISHORT+10.1%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-19AMSNDKSHORT+6.7%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-19AMNBISSHORT+3.6%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-19PMPLTRSHORT-1.4%PREVIEW
2026-08-19PMSNDKSHORT+6.7%PREVIEW
2026-08-19PMIRENSHORT-3.6%PREVIEW
2026-08-19PMAAOISHORT+10.1%PREVIEW
2026-08-19PMNBISSHORT+3.6%PREVIEW
2026-08-18AMAEHRSHORT+8.9%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-18AMCRWVSHORT+8.1%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-18AMAXTILONG-7.3%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-18AMAAOISHORT+10.0%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-18AMNBISSHORT+7.5%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-18PMCRWVSHORT+8.1%PREVIEW
2026-08-18PMAXTILONG-7.3%PREVIEW
2026-08-18PMAAOISHORT+10.0%PREVIEW
2026-08-18PMPLTRSHORT+0.3%PREVIEW
2026-08-18PMNBISSHORT+7.5%PREVIEW
2026-08-17AMAMDLONG-1.6%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-17AMPLTRLONG-0.9%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-17AMAAOILONG+1.5%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-17AMSNDKLONG+5.1%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-17AMNBISLONG-2.9%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-17PMAMDLONG-1.6%PREVIEW
2026-08-17PMAAOILONG+1.5%PREVIEW
2026-08-17PMPLTRLONG-0.9%PREVIEW
2026-08-17PMSNDKLONG+5.1%PREVIEW
2026-08-17PMNBISLONG-2.9%PREVIEW
2026-08-14AMNULONG-3.2%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-14AMCOHRLONG-0.8%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-14AMRDDTLONG+1.5%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-14AMPLTRSHORT+2.9%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-14AMSNDKLONG-0.4%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-14PMCRWVSHORT+0.8%PREVIEW
2026-08-14PMSNDKLONG-0.4%PREVIEW
2026-08-14PMPLTRSHORT+2.9%PREVIEW
2026-08-14PMRDDTLONG+1.5%PREVIEW
2026-08-14PMNBISSHORT-7.6%PREVIEW
2026-08-13AMCRWVLONG-0.8%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-13AMAAOISHORT+4.2%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-13AMIRENLONG-2.7%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-13AMHTZLONG-12.5%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-13AMNBISLONG-0.3%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-13PMAAOISHORT+4.2%PREVIEW
2026-08-13PMMUSHORT-4.1%PREVIEW
2026-08-13PMPLTRSHORT-3.1%PREVIEW
2026-08-13PMHTZLONG-12.5%PREVIEW
2026-08-13PMNBISLONG-0.3%PREVIEW
2026-08-12AMLITELONG+3.6%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-12AMAMZNSHORT+2.2%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-12AMPLTRSHORT+1.8%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-12AMCRWVLONG-0.7%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-12AMNBISLONG+14.7%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-12PMIRENSHORT-0.1%PREVIEW
2026-08-12PMNBISLONG+14.7%PREVIEW
2026-08-12PMAAOISHORT+2.6%PREVIEW
2026-08-12PMPLTRSHORT+1.8%PREVIEW
2026-08-12PMCRWVLONG-0.7%PREVIEW
2026-08-11AMAAOISHORT-0.3%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-11AMAXTILONG-1.3%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-11AMSNDKSHORT-1.0%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-11AMPLTRSHORT-0.4%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-11AMMUSHORT+0.4%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-11PMAAOISHORT-0.3%PREVIEW
2026-08-11PMNBISSHORT-3.1%PREVIEW
2026-08-11PMSNDKSHORT-1.0%PREVIEW
2026-08-11PMMUSHORT+0.4%PREVIEW
2026-08-11PMPLTRSHORT-0.4%PREVIEW
2026-08-10AMBESHORT+4.7%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-10AMAAOILONG-6.3%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-10AMAXTILONG-17.6%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-10AMMULONG-0.3%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-10AMPLTRLONG+2.5%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-10PMSNDKSHORT-2.7%PREVIEW
2026-08-10PMAAOILONG-6.3%PREVIEW
2026-08-10PMAXTILONG-17.6%PREVIEW
2026-08-10PMMULONG-0.3%PREVIEW
2026-08-10PMPLTRLONG+2.5%PREVIEW
2026-08-07AMAMZNSHORT-0.6%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-07AMMUSHORT+2.9%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-07AMPLTRSHORT-7.5%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-07AMAAOILONG-4.8%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-07AMNBISSHORT+4.8%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-06AMBESHORT-2.7%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-06AMSNDKLONG+7.3%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-06AMPLTRSHORT-0.0%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-06AMIRENSHORT-1.9%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-06AMNBISSHORT+7.6%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-05AMBESHORT-4.7%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-05AMRDDTSHORT+2.5%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-05AMIRENSHORT+2.8%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-05AMSNDKSHORT+3.5%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-05AMNBISSHORT+0.4%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-05PMIRENSHORT+2.8%PREVIEW
2026-08-05PMMUSHORT-0.9%PREVIEW
2026-08-05PMBESHORT-4.7%PREVIEW
2026-08-05PMSNDKSHORT+3.5%PREVIEW
2026-08-05PMNBISSHORT+0.4%PREVIEW
2026-08-04AMAXTISHORT-1.0%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-04AMNBISLONG+4.3%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-04AMBESHORT-1.2%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-04AMAAOILONG+2.3%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-04AMPLTRLONG+12.2%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-04PMSNDKSHORT-5.1%PREVIEW
2026-08-04PMRDDTSHORT-4.1%PREVIEW
2026-08-04PMMUSHORT-3.0%PREVIEW
2026-08-04PMIRENSHORT-4.2%PREVIEW
2026-08-04PMNBISSHORT-4.3%PREVIEW
2026-08-03AMAAOILONG+22.7%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-03AMNBISLONG+15.8%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-03AMBESHORT-10.4%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-03AMIRENLONG+8.8%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-03AMAMZNLONG+2.1%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-08-03PMRDDTLONG+9.0%PREVIEW
2026-08-03PMSLNHLONG+1.7%PREVIEW
2026-08-03PMAMZNLONG+2.1%PREVIEW
2026-08-03PMIRENLONG+8.8%PREVIEW
2026-08-03PMBESHORT-10.4%PREVIEW
2026-07-31AMNBISLONG-5.3%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-31AMAMZNLONG+2.5%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-31AMRDDTLONG-4.8%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-31AMBELONG-10.9%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-31AMSNDKLONG-12.3%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-31PMMSFTLONG+3.3%PREVIEW
2026-07-31PMNBISSHORT+5.3%PREVIEW
2026-07-31PMSNDKLONG-12.3%PREVIEW
2026-07-31PMIRENSHORT+9.8%PREVIEW
2026-07-31PMBELONG-10.9%PREVIEW
2026-07-30AMIRENLONG+17.7%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-30AMLMNDLONG+1.8%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-30AMSNDKLONG+12.8%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-30AMBELONG+11.2%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-30AMNBISLONG+9.4%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-30PMSOXLLONG+6.9%PREVIEW
2026-07-30PMIRENSHORT-17.7%PREVIEW
2026-07-30PMMUSHORT-10.3%PREVIEW
2026-07-30PMLMNDLONG+1.8%PREVIEW
2026-07-30PMBELONG+11.2%PREVIEW
2026-07-29AMASTSSHORT+7.7%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-29AMKORULONG-9.6%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-29AMNBISLONG-13.0%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-29AMMULONG-11.3%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-29AMBELONG-10.8%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-29PMMULONG-11.5%PREVIEW
2026-07-29PMRKLBSHORT+7.7%PREVIEW
2026-07-29PMIRENSHORT+14.0%PREVIEW
2026-07-29PMASTSSHORT+7.7%PREVIEW
2026-07-29PMBELONG-10.8%PREVIEW
2026-07-28AMRKLBSHORT+0.9%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-28AMSNDKSHORT+6.6%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-28AMMUSHORT+2.5%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-28AMASTSSHORT-0.5%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-28AMNBISSHORT+5.1%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-28PMAAOISHORT+5.2%PREVIEW
2026-07-28PMMUSHORT+2.5%PREVIEW
2026-07-28PMRKLBSHORT+0.9%PREVIEW
2026-07-28PMIRENSHORT+3.1%PREVIEW
2026-07-28PMNBISSHORT+5.1%PREVIEW
2026-07-27AMRKLBLONG+3.3%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-27AMNBISLONG-4.5%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-27AMSNDKSHORT+12.6%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-27AMHIMSLONG+5.3%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-27AMMUSHORT+3.5%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-27PMTSLALONG-1.3%PREVIEW
2026-07-27PMNBISLONG-4.5%PREVIEW
2026-07-27PMHIMSLONG+5.3%PREVIEW
2026-07-27PMSNDKSHORT+12.6%PREVIEW
2026-07-27PMMUSHORT+3.5%PREVIEW
2026-07-24AMASTSSHORT+5.5%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-24AMSNDKSHORT+7.4%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-24AMCIFRLONG-8.5%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-24AMIRENSHORT+7.3%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-24AMNBISSHORT+14.1%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-24PMCIFRLONG-8.5%PREVIEW
2026-07-24PMMUSHORT+4.0%PREVIEW
2026-07-24PMASTSSHORT+5.5%PREVIEW
2026-07-24PMSNDKSHORT+7.4%PREVIEW
2026-07-24PMNBISSHORT+14.1%PREVIEW
2026-07-23AMAAOISHORT-3.2%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-23AMIRENSHORT+0.0%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-23AMSNDKSHORT-2.7%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-23AMASTSSHORT+1.2%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-23AMNBISSHORT-3.1%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-23PMRKLBSHORT-2.7%PREVIEW
2026-07-23PMAAOISHORT-3.2%PREVIEW
2026-07-23PMSNDKSHORT-2.7%PREVIEW
2026-07-23PMIRENSHORT+0.0%PREVIEW
2026-07-23PMNBISSHORT-3.1%PREVIEW
2026-07-22AMSMCILONG+5.5%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-22AMASTSSHORT+1.3%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-22AMNBISLONG+3.3%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-22AMONDSLONG+2.6%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-22AMIRENSHORT-2.4%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-22PMAMDSHORT-4.8%PREVIEW
2026-07-22PMWYFISHORT-4.2%PREVIEW
2026-07-22PMSNDKSHORT-4.8%PREVIEW
2026-07-22PMASTSSHORT+1.3%PREVIEW
2026-07-22PMIRENSHORT-2.4%PREVIEW
2026-07-21AMSNDKSHORT-5.0%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-21AMNUAILONG+13.0%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-21AMASTSSHORT-7.6%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-21AMIRENLONG+0.9%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-21AMNBISSHORT-12.4%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-21PMMUSHORT-4.9%PREVIEW
2026-07-21PMWYFISHORT-1.4%PREVIEW
2026-07-21PMASTSSHORT-7.6%PREVIEW
2026-07-21PMSNDKSHORT-5.0%PREVIEW
2026-07-21PMNBISSHORT-12.4%PREVIEW
2026-07-20AMASTSLONG-1.2%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-20AMGRRRLONG-0.9%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-20AMWYFILONG+3.2%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-20AMIRENLONG+10.5%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-20AMNBISLONG-2.3%RECONSTRUCTED · SHADOW
2026-07-20PMSOXLLONG-4.7%PREVIEW
2026-07-20PMBELONG-7.9%PREVIEW
2026-07-20PMWYFILONG+3.2%PREVIEW
2026-07-20PMIRENLONG+10.5%PREVIEW
2026-07-20PMNBISLONG-2.3%PREVIEW

net = equal-weight mean of settled picks − 40 bps. L/S badge = side; · = not yet settled. PM rows are frozen evening previews of the same session (audit trail), not double-counted in the stats.