Author · brief 2026-06-22

@cfromhertz cfromhertz

Process-driven swing trader fusing volume-profile structure with an AI-capex macro thesis.

Trades and teaches a trend-following/momentum book across US

trader score
+0.07
hit rate
45%
mean α
+0.10%
signals 14d
244

Grade = how their written analysis reads (A best). Trader score = how their last-20 timestamped calls performed vs SPY. · Analyst brief as of 2026-06-22.

Their picks, scored

Across their last 20 scored bets: 45% hit rate, +0.10% mean alpha, trader score +0.07. Their last-14d mentions, direction-adjusted, have moved -4.2% since posting (mean over 182 mentions with price data).

Semis, financials and industrial leaders over software laggards

cfromhertz is trading leadership rather than broad beta, with adds in DELL, BAND, DOCN and a tactical CRDO trim/add-back plan. His distinctive read is that semis, semi equipment, banks and industrials remain the market’s real leadership while NVDA and parts of software are no longer leading. Late-week, he flipped back bullish after a brief bearish afternoon, while flagging a stronger dollar as a headwind for international equities.

Themes5analyst read · 2026-06-22
Semis and AI hardware leadership rotation
mixedintensifying40 signals
Semi equipment strength on weakness
bullintensifying11 signals
Financials and industrials breaking to highs
bullintensifying13 signals
Macro positioning, dollar and index risk
mixedfading34 signals
Biotech and software watchlist dispersion
mixedintensifying11 signals
Direction this week

He flipped back bullish on June 18 after saying he had been bearish the prior afternoon, and most subsequent posts emphasize leadership rather than de-risking. Adds were concentrated early in DELL, BAND and DOCN, while CRDO was trimmed after a rebalance jump with an explicit plan to add back lower. Concentration sits in semis, semi equipment, banks and industrials, with a late-week warning that dollar strength can pressure international equities.

Position disclosures4skin in the game
XBI Long XBI with upside VPOC target at 144.24. held
GLD No current GLD position and nothing to do, but still monitoring. exited
KBWB Disclosed holding some KBWB exposure. held
XLI Disclosed holding some XLI exposure. held
Best hypotheses5their highest-scoring claims in our index
AI chip demand will exceed TSM supply for years, supporting more than 30% revenue growth and sustained capacity tightnes
bullTIER_S10 co-supporters
Navitas Nvidia MGX collaboration and 800V-to-6V AI power board validate the company as an AI infrastructure supplier.
bullHIGH12 co-supporters
Nvidia's partnership ecosystem across Microsoft, Akamai, Rumble, Foxconn, SK, Samsung, and cloud players broadens its pl
bullTIER_S7 co-supporters
SPCE rally reflects mistaken SpaceX or SPCX proxy buying rather than direct economic exposure, making the move fundament
bearHIGH16 co-supporters
AI infrastructure capex and semiconductor demand remain strong enough to support further SMH upside after the pullback.
bullHIGH7 co-supporters
Recent signals15receipts included
date (PT)tickerauthorsentwhat they saidsince thenreceipt
2026-07-01FTNT@cfromhertz+0.35Calls PANW a monster breakout and discloses ownership of FTNT, CRWD, and CIBR.-1.7%
2026-07-01CIBR@cfromhertz+0.35Calls PANW a monster breakout and discloses ownership of FTNT, CRWD, and CIBR.-0.5%
2026-07-01CRWD@cfromhertz+0.35Calls PANW a monster breakout and discloses ownership of FTNT, CRWD, and CIBR.+0.4%
2026-07-01PANW@cfromhertz+0.55Calls PANW a monster breakout and discloses ownership of FTNT, CRWD, and CIBR.-1.1%
2026-07-01BTC@cfromhertz+0.25IBIT/BTC is in downtrend but has bullish RSI divergence and is holding July value area.·
2026-07-01IBIT@cfromhertz+0.25IBIT/BTC is in downtrend but has bullish RSI divergence and is holding July value area.+2.6%
2026-07-01SPY@cfromhertz+0.00SPY chart/eyes-only post lacks standalone stance.-0.1%
2026-07-01DAVE@cfromhertz+0.50DAVE has a nice breakout and relative strength in fintech, though author is not in it.+1.1%
2026-07-01IGV@cfromhertz+0.35SMH down 4% while IGV up 3.4%.+0.2%
2026-07-01SMH@cfromhertz-0.40SMH down 4% while IGV up 3.4%.-4.5%
2026-07-01GLD@cfromhertz+0.35Author likes major support and added GLD to a portfolio last week, while noting no turn yet.+2.0%
2026-07-01FCEL@cfromhertz+0.10Took profits and exited at target for +32.5%, now watching overhead supply.-11.9%
2026-07-01SPCX@cfromhertz+0.35Possible add if SPCX holds $160 — After taking profits on 3/4, author identifies possible add spot if SPCX holds $160.·
2026-07-01IBM@cfromhertz+0.35IBM is trying to exit its 2026 value area and may start trending despite erratic action.+1.1%
2026-07-01RSP@cfromhertz+0.45Author is looking for new highs in equal-weighted S&P ETF RSP.+0.7%

Grade is our human read-worthiness rating; trader score is a rolling 20-bet hit-rate/alpha composite — different things, often disagreeing. “Since then” is direction-unaware in the table; the summary line above adjusts for which way they leaned.